Breaking down Arizona high school football 6A, 5A, 4A semifinals: Who gains title shots?
If you thought last week's quarterfinals were thrilling, wait for Friday's semifinals in 6A, 5A, and 4A. It's going to be off the rails.
The Arizona Republic breaks down the semifinals in each conference with predictions on who gets to the championship games:
6A Conference semifinals
Friday night, 7
No. 12 Mesa Red Mountain (6-6) vs. No. 1 Phoenix Brophy Prep (10-2), at Central
Last year's playoff game was a shootout with Red Mountain rallying from a 17-0 first-quarter deficit to beat Brophy 45-38 in the first round. Red Mountain had explosive plays in that. This Red Mountain team is built around its defense, mainly its linebackers, led by senior Champ Gennicks and sophomore Jameson Wade, who both had tremendous games in last week's quarterfinal upset of Pinnacle. Brophy's defense this year also is its strength, led by linebacker Alex Salome, the Central Region Defensive Player of the Year. QB Charlie McGinnis can expect a lot of blitzing from Red Mountain, which turned up the heat to frustrate Mountain View QB Jack Germaine and Pinnacle QB Wyatt Horton. The Broncos are going to have to offset those blitz packages with McGinnis quickly reading it to find his targets, such as sophomore sensation Daylen Sharper in one-on-one situations. He's got the size and skill to burn the Lions' secondary. This could be a low-scoring game if Brophy's defense can't pick up the blitz. Red Mountain is a different team than it was during its five-game skid to close out the regular season. That's because the Lions have players back who were out injured. Red Mountain will try to pound the middle of Brophy's defense with workhorse back Isaiah Savoie. It can use play-action to make some throws downfield with a special connection between QB Simon Lopez and WR Bode Wagner. But the Broncos have been through some wars and know how to win close games this year.
Prediction: Brophy Prep 23, Red Mountain 20, OT
No. 2 Scottsdale Saguaro (7-5) at No. 2 Tucson Salpointe Catholic (10-2)
Saguaro found a second life in the playoffs and, playing with a chip on their shoulders, they're out for revenge from the 21-14 home loss they suffered a month ago to Salpointe, a game in which the Cats gave up too many explosive plays and turned the ball over four times. The offense is going to have to be practically perfect and the defense will need its best game of the season to turn back the Lancers, who, like Saguaro, are used to being in the Open. Salpointe's big defensive ends Elijah Rushing and Keona Wilhite plan to bring the heat to QB Mason Bray, who has to learn from the earlier Salpointe loss to make the right reads. Bray put up 271 passing yards in the earlier meeting but he also got intercepted twice. The emergence of wide receiver Jaci Dickerson should help. Saguaro running back Jaedon Matthews, coming off his best game (191 yards, four TDs rushing in a win over Perry) needs to be able to get untracked to keep the offense on the field. He was held to just 50 yards on 13 carries in the Salpointe loss. Salpointe's 14-12 loss to Brophy in the final regular-season game helped the Lancers get ready for a deep 6A run. But this is a different Saguaro team it will be facing, a team that's as healthy and confident as it has been since the 35-31 loss to Open semifinalist Basha on Sept. 8.
Prediction: Saguaro 28, Salpointe 21
5A Conference semifinals
Friday night, 7
No. 5 Glendale Apollo (11-) at No. 1 Gilbert Higley (10-2)
This is Apollo's first trip to the semifinals since 1985 when the Hawks were playing in the biggest classification and shocked the top seed, Tempe McClintock, in what was considered then the Upset of the Century. That Apollo team struggled through the rest of the season and came out of nowhere under then-coach Rudy Pacheco. This Apollo team isn't quite the underdog but to beat a top seed again, it's going to take its best effort and monster performance from running back/defensive back Adam Mohammed, arguably one of the top three players in the state. Mohammed has run for more than 2,000 yards and 39 TDs. He has 197 yards and two TDs on seven catches. He has 2,454 total yards when adding his kickoff returns. And what he's done on defense has been lights out. Higley sophomore QB Gunner Fagrell has taken full advantage of his second chance to lead the defense. He lost his job at the season's midpoint, despite doing a great job, because transfer Luke Haugo became eligible. But after Haugo got hurt in his second game, Fagrell returned to lead the Knights and has been on a mission. He has thrown 29 TD passes and has run for 411 yards and two scores in 11 games. This should come down to the final minutes if not overtime.
Prediction: Higley 42, Apollo 41
No. 3 Horizon (10-2) at No. 2 Goodyear Desert Edge (10-2)
Since the 24-22 loss to Open-qualifier Desert Mountain on Sept. 29, Horizon has played at another level on both sides of the ball. It has beaten Notre Dame, Higley, Cactus Shadows, Canyon View and American Leadership Gilbert North twice since then. Holding an explosive Higley offense to six points definitely caught everybody's attention in 5A. The Huskies created nine turnovers in one game. But the offense will need another great effort from backup QB Zach Jones, who was thrust into action last week after starter Jase Ashley rolled his ankle in practice. Jones threw three first-half TD passes in a 35-28 win over ALA Gilbert North. Desert Edge is rolling behind junior QB Hezekiah Millender, who keeps racking up multiple TD-passing games. His threat to take off with the ball and make plays with his legs keeps the defense off-balance.
Prediction: Horizon 33, Desert Edge 27
4A Conference semifinals
Friday night, 7
No. 4 Phoenix Arcadia (12-0) at No. 1 Yuma Catholic (12-0)
Arcadia made it this far so why not keep going? Nobody figured the Titans would be unbeaten at this point. But Yuma Catholic, showing no signs of a fallout after the graduation of the state's all-time passing record holder Richard Stallworth, has been a rock on defense, led by Richard's brother, Rocky. Since losing defensive end Jaxson Jones early in the season due to an injury, the Shamrocks have not allowed more than two touchdowns in a game. Sophomore QB Nash Ott has been efficient, completing 67% of his passes for 2,555 yards and 29 TDs. Arcadia QB Braylen Rooney's poise and efficiency have been valuable for the Titans in close games, including a 31-28 overtime win over Thunderbird last week. Running back Brady Forst has been a scoring machine, who also has been clutch.
Prediction: Arcadia 24, Yuma Catholic 21
No. 3 Tucson Mica Mountain (11-1) at No. 2 Oro Valley Canyon del Oro (12-0)
How much more can CDO ride running back Kayden Luke? He ran the ball 45 times for 235 yards and two TDs and made the big stop in a 33-27 four-overtime thriller last week over Arizona College Prep. The champion wrestler never leaves the field. Coach Dustin Peace will lean on him against a Mica Mountain team that lost its only game to CDO 17-15 on Oct. 13. Mica Mountain, coached by Peace's mentor, Pat Nugent, made big statements in playoff wins over Snowflake and Northwest Christian with more than 30 points in each of those. QB Jayden Thoreson and RB Conner Hangartner were big in the 38-17 win last week over Northwest Christian. Don't expect an emotional hangover from the Dorados. But they better be ready for more extra play.
Prediction: Canyon del Oro 26, Mica Mountain 24, 2 OTs
To suggest human-interest story ideas and other news, reach Obert atrichard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-316-8827. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter:@azc_obert
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Breaking down 6A, 5A, 4A football semifinals: Who gains title shots?
