Brandon Woodruff expected to miss most, it not all, of 2024 after right shoulder surgery

On the heels of their highly disappointing postseason ouster, the Milwaukee Brewers have suffered another brutal blow with Brandon Woodruff having undergone surgery Friday in Arlington, Texas, to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder.

As a result, Woodruff is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season.

And with one more year of team control, there is also the very real chance that Woodruff's days pitching for the Brewers are over.

“Brandon is not only one of the best pitchers in our franchise’s history, but is also a valued member of our organization off the field,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold said. "He and his wife, Jonie, have gone above and beyond here in the community.

“Brandon’s health is our top priority at this point in time.”

Woodruff, who turns 31 on Feb. 10, went 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and WHIP of 0.82 over 11 starts in an injury-truncated 2023 season that saw him miss four months with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder.

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Woodruff returned in early August and made nine starts the rest of the way, including perhaps the Brewers’ best-pitched game of the season – a complete-game shutout of the Miami Marlins on Sept. 11.

But two starts later – this time in Miami – Woodruff had to be lifted after five innings and 87 pitches following a noticeable drop in velocity.

He skipped his last scheduled start of the regular season, presumably to be as fresh as possible for the playoffs, but it was announced the day before the Brewers’ National League wild-card series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks that Woodruff would be unable to pitch.

Woodruff was emotional while talking about missing his scheduled Game 2 start with reporters.

He was diagnosed with a capsular injury, then received a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister, a well-known and well-regarded orthopedic surgeon who is also the team physician of the Texas Rangers.

Meister also performed the surgery.

What does Brandon Woodruff's future with the Brewers look like now?

The timing is especially tough for Woodruff considering he is in his final year of arbitration and was in line to hit free agency in 2024.

With that in mind, there are four plausible scenarios that could occur.

-- The Brewers could tender Woodruff for 2024, end up paying him somewhere around $10 million and hope that he is able to recover and return to pitching at some point;

-- Come to terms with Woodruff on some sort of multi-year deal that compensates him for not pitching most or all of 2024, and also works for both sides financially for 2025 (or, potentially, beyond);

-- Attempt to work out a trade with another team if a multi-year deal with Milwaukee couldn't be agreed upon;

-- Or, simply non-tender him, leaving Woodruff a free agent and the Brewers with no obligations to their 2014 11th-round pick but also no compensation for his loss (they could also re-sign him at that stage at a more acceptable price).

The tender deadline is Nov. 17.

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How might Brandon Woodruff's injury affect other Brewers roster decisions, including Corbin Burnes' future?

Woodruff's injury could also change the Brewers’ offseason calculus with regard to Corbin Burnes, who many expected would be traded as he too enters his final year of arbitration and should command a salary in the neighborhood of $15 million.

Perhaps the Brewers now will decide to hang onto Burnes, feeling losing two ace-caliber starting pitchers in one offseason would be too much for a team positioned to again compete for the National League Central Division title.

Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby – who missed all of 2023 after shoulder surgery – are the other primary returnees in Milwaukee’s rotation while Wade Miley has a $10 million mutual option for 2024.

Adrian Houser is now likelier to return as he enters his final arbitration year, and Colin Rea could also be in the equation after he stepped into the breach following Woodruff's initial injury and made 22 starts.

Prospect Robert Gasser, a left-hander who was named the organization’s co-pitcher of the year in the minor leagues after a solid season at Class AAA Nashville, is also likely to get a shot at joining the rotation.

Sensational seasons, stats since Woodruff's debut in 2017

Woodruff, who debuted with the Brewers in 2017, is 46-26 with a 3.10 ERA and WHIP of 1.05 in 130 career appearances with the Brewers (115 starts). He also struck out 788 in 680 ⅓ innings.

He was named an NL all-star in 2019 and 2021 and last year went 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA and WHIP of 1.07 despite suffering an ankle injury and pitching through Raynaud's syndrome.

Woodruff was also the author of one of the biggest moments in franchise history -- and oddly enough, it came at the plate and not on the mound as it was his home run off Clayton Kershaw that helped the Brewers beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the 2018 NLCS in Milwaukee.

For his career, Woodruff has accounted for 17.2 Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference.

By comparison, Burnes stands at 13.6 and Peralta at 6.2.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers' Brandon Woodruff has shoulder surgery, could miss all of 2024