Boxing betting: How long can Richard Commey survive vs. Vasiliy Lomachenko?

There are 10 bouts available to bet on BetMGM’s boxing schedule on Friday and Saturday, but if you decide to get in the game as they say, be prepared to lay a lot of money.

In those 10 fights, seven have favorites of -1000 or higher. Four of those are -1600 or higher and two of them are at -2500. No fight is closer than -300, with Robbie Davies at -350 against Hank Lundy (+230) on Saturday.

The most significant fight has former unified lightweight champion Vasiliy Lomachenko taking on ex-IBF champion Richard Commey on Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

Lomachenko is a whopping -1100 favorite over Commey, who comes in at +550. As much as I love Lomachenko as a fighter and believe he’s going to win, Commey has too much punching power for me to lay that kind of money.

Lomachenko by decision is +260 and by KO or TKO is -225.

Teofimo Lopez knocked out Commey in the second round in 2019, but Lomachenko is a different style fighter. The fight will go longer, I believe, as Lomachenko tries to study Commey and find openings.

Commey will be cautious, knowing if he gets blown out again, he’s little more than a gatekeeper. A good performance in a losing effort, though, will keep him in the title mix in the division.

So I expect Commey to be risk adverse early and looking to see what Lomachenko gives him.

Lomachenko is simply a higher class fighter, and he’ll begin to figure Commey out by the middle rounds. The question at that point becomes how long Commey can survive. Lomachenko is not a one-punch KO artist like Lopez, but he hits hard enough and punches accurately enough that when he’s landing in volume, he’s a finisher.

I am going to lay two units on Lomachenko at -225 to score a KO over Commey. I’m also going to take a flyer on Round 11, because it’s at +1600. I’ll bet a half-unit on Lomachenko to win by KO or TKO in the 11th at +1600, hoping to make a profit of $800 for risking $50.

Best bets for boxing's action-packed weekend

My other bet is on Nonito Donaire, who defends his WBC bantamweight title in Carson, California, against Reymart Gaballo. Donaire is -450 and Gaballo is +290.

I will put two units on Donaire at -450 to win.

In Liverpool, England, on Saturday, Katie Taylor is -1600 to successfully defend her undisputed women’s lightweight title over Firuza Sharipova, who is +700. Taylor is +225 to win by KO or TKO, but it’s closing in on three years since she’s won by finish, so I’ll pass that. I will lay -225 on Taylor to win by decision in this one.

Given the numbers, those are the only bets I’ll make. There are several fighters I like to win, but the odds are too big for me to wager.

I expect heavyweight prospect Jared Anderson, who is 10-0 with 10 KOs, to finish Oleksandr Teslenko in their bout on the Lomachenko-Commey undercard.

Anderson, though, is -2500 and that’s too rich for my blood. BetMGM doesn’t have any prop bets up on this fight, but if it does put them up, I think Anderson wins by KO in around the fourth or fifth round of a scheduled eight-rounder.

I like John Riel Casimero to win by KO over Paul Butler, but Casimero is -300 to win by KO and -2000 to win. I think both numbers are too high and so I’ll pass.