A look at the contenders for the NCAA tournament's final at-large spots
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Bubble teams will find out their fate at 6 p.m. ET Sunday when CBS unveils the NCAA tournament bracket. Here's a look at how the contenders for the final at-large spots in the field compare against one another and my assessment of which teams will sneak in and which ones will have their bubble burst:
61. LSU (22-10, 11-7 SEC): All LSU had to do to ensure a stress-free Selection Sunday was merely avoid another head-scratching loss to a bad team, but the Tigers lost to Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals. That ensured LSU an anxious weekend because its their fifth loss of the season to a lower-echelon SEC team. What should help the Tigers overcome those bad losses is a 13-5 record against the RPI top 100 that includes marquee wins against West Virginia and Arkansas, a sweep of Ole Miss and a win over Georgia. Despite their enigmatic play, that's probably enough to get them safely into the field.
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62. Texas (20-13, 8-10 Big 12): Can a team with a sub-.500 league record and a 3-12 record against the RPI top 50 slip into the NCAA tournament and avoid a First Four game in Dayton? Texas sure hopes so. Big wins against Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa help the Longhorns' case, though none of those were true road games. It also helps that the only loss against a team outside the RPI top 50 Texas has suffered is against Stanford, which appeared NCAA tournament-bound before a late-season collapse. It will be interesting to see if the selection committee takes into account that Texas is ranked No. 19 in the nation in the KenPom rankings. That's awfully high for a team to be left out of the field.
63. Temple (23-10, 13-5 AAC): By far the best thing Temple has accomplished this season is a stunning 77-52 throttling of Kansas back on Dec. 22. That ultimately may save the Owls because the rest of their résumé isn't all that exciting. A win over Cincinnati? Not bad. A sweep of UConn? OK. A sweep of Memphis? Meh. A non-conference loss to a pretty bad Saint Joseph's team doesn't help either. Temple had a chance to leave no doubt by upsetting American Athletic Conference champ SMU in the league tournament semifinals on Saturday, but the Owls couldn't get it done. That should leave them a little anxious today.
64. BYU (25-9, 13-5 WCC): BYU should hope the selection committee was paying attention when Gonzaga coach Mark Few suggested the team the Zags had just beaten in the WCC title game is good enough to win a couple games in the NCAA tournament. The Cougars need all the help they can get to get into the field and stay out of Dayton. On the one hand, they have only one RPI top 50 win all season — a road win at Gonzaga two weeks ago — and the best teams they've beaten besides the Zags are likely NIT teams Stanford and UMass. On the other hand, they have an 8-3 road record, a No. 29 KenPom ranking and No. 37 RPI. They also just look like an NCAA tournament team for what that's worth.
LAST FOUR TEAMS IN
65. Colorado State (27-6, 13-5 MWC): Other coaches should come take lessons from Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy on how to schedule. The Rams are somehow 28th in the RPI despite only defeating five RPI top 100 teams all season. Their best non-league wins are nothing to get excited about — victories against Georgia State, UTEP and Colorado. They also split with both Boise State and San Diego State in league play. What truly may save Colorado State is it doesn't have a single bad loss on its résumé. The only loss it suffered to a team outside the RPI top 100 was at New Mexico back when the Lobos were healthy and playing well. Tough to penalize the Rams too much for that one.
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66. Indiana (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten): An Indiana team that defeated Maryland on Jan. 22 and cracked the AP Top 25 the following day disintegrated quickly thereafter. The Hoosiers lost nine of their last 14 games to tumble all the way to the bubble, raising the question of whether a team that hasn't beaten anyone remotely relevant in six weeks belongs in the NCAA tournament. The argument in favor of the Hoosiers is that few other bubble teams have a better collection of quality wins than Maryland, Butler, SMU, Ohio State and Illinois. The argument against the Hoosiers is 13 losses, a dreadful non-conference strength of schedule and a dropoff in play during the second half of Big Ten play.
67. Boise State (22-8, 14-4 MWC): The selection committee says it doesn't take conference affiliation into account whatsoever. Boise State should be glad that's true. Wyoming's victory over San Diego State in the Mountain West title game ensured both those teams will be in the NCAA tournament. That means the committee would have to take four teams from the Mountain West if both Boise State and Colorado State are going to make the field. The Broncos didn't accomplish much in non-league play besides a decent win at Saint Mary's. Their résumé is essentially winning a share of the Mountain West title and sweeping San Diego State and splitting with Colorado State to do it.
68. Georgia (21-11, 11-7 SEC): Through no fault of its own, Georgia's résumé has taken some hits recently. The Bulldogs' sweep of Ole Miss does not mean as much with the Rebels falling into jeopardy of missing the NCAA tournament. Same with their win over Texas A&M. And non-league victories against Seton Hall and Kansas State that once seemed relevant no longer truly are because both those teams fell flat on their faces soon afterward. What that leaves Georgia with is a resume that is very thin. Nine RPI top 100 victories certainly help, but none of those came against an RPI top 50 opponent. Bad losses to Auburn and Georgia Tech don't help either.
FIRST TEAMS OUT
69. Ole Miss (20-12, 11-7 SEC): If Ole Miss is one of the last teams left out of the field on Sunday, it will rue how it finished the season. The Rebels dropped four of five, most damagingly falling to Vanderbilt in their regular season finale and to South Carolina in the opening round of the SEC tournament. That poor finish could draw attention to some of the flaws in a résumé that includes a solid nine RPI top 100 victories but also includes some ugly losses too. The highlights: A road win at Arkansas and non-conference victories against Oregon and Cincinnati. The lowlights: Losses to Charleston Southern, TCU and Western Kentucky.
70. UCLA (20-13, 11-7 Pac-12): The final impression the Bruins left on the selection committee was as good as they could have hoped for in a loss. They led powerful Arizona deep into the second half before falling 70-64 in the Pac-12 semifinals. A victory there would have been huge because UCLA lacks quality wins. The Bruins toppled Utah and Oregon at Pauley Pavilion, but those two victories, a sweep of Stanford and a rout of Long Beach State are the only wins UCLA has over RPI top 100 teams. Where UCLA may have let its season slip away was with its inability to win on the road. The Bruins lost winnable February matchups with Arizona State and Cal and finished only 2-8 in true road games for the season.
71. Miami (21-12, 10-8 ACC): Can one of the great road wins of the season — a 90-74 shellacking of Duke in Durham — overshadow the many warts on Miami's profile? That's ultimately what will probably decide the Hurricanes' fate. Miami does have a road win at Syracuse, a home win over NC State and a victory against fringe bubble team Illinois, but those victories are weighed down by a couple of dreadful losses. NCAA tournament teams don't typically lose by 28 against Eastern Kentucky and by 13 against Green Bay. League losses against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech aren't any better.
72. Murray State (27-5, 16-0 OVC): A team that didn't lose between late-November and early-March still probably isn't going to make the NCAA tournament. Murray State let that chance slip away when it lost to Belmont in a thrilling Ohio Valley Conference title game, costing itself the league's automatic bid. Even though there has been a groundswell of support for Murray State to get in over a middling double-digit loss team from a power conference, the committee would have to abandon its usual criteria to reward the Racers. Murray State only has one victory against an opponent in the RPI top 100 and that came against NIT-bound Illinois State. The Racers lost by 27 against Xavier and also suffered damaging November losses against Houston and Portland.
73. Texas A&M (20-11, 11-7 SEC): The entirety of Texas A&M's NCAA tournament resume a week ago was two wins against fellow bubble team LSU and a lack of bad losses. That wasn't very good to begin with, and then the Aggies went and messed even that up. Ending the season with back-to-back losses to Alabama in the regular season finale and Auburn in the opening round of the SEC tournament likely extinguished any real chance Texas A&M had. Though they were without Danuel House for a handful of their losses, you have to beat to beat someone to make the field.The Aggeies didn't topple a single RPI top 50 opponent as LSU has slipped to No. 54.
74. Tulsa (22-10, 14-4 AAC): Tulsa's resume is remarkably similar to Texas A&M's only the Golden Hurricane play in a weaker conference and their bad losses came against even worse opposition. The only two quality wins Tulsa has? A sweep of Temple. The bad losses? A horrendous season-opening loss to Oral Roberts and a baffling loss to Division II Southeastern Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane have only five victories all year against opponents in the RPI top 100 and two of those are a Memphis team in the middle of its worst season in a while. That's the resume of an NIT team.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
