Binge, Stream and Skip: Fantasy football Week 3 viewer's guide
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 3 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
ATLANTA FALCONS at DETROIT LIONS
“Look at us? Who’d have thought? Not me,” the Lions and Falcons say to each other as they find themselves leading the Week 3 viewer’s guide.
It’s earned, though. These are two mega-fascinating teams.
The Lions fell to another NFC hopeful last week but reminded us once more why their home field lends itself to big-time, high-scoring affairs. Detroit may be banged up right now with David Montgomery set to miss this game and Amon-Ra St. Brown dealing with a toe injury, but it still possesses firepower. No question not having St. Brown would be a blow but it does look like he will be able to play. Put Jared Goff on the radar as a streamer too.
Detroit at home looks like the perfect team to bring Atlanta out of its shell offensively. The Falcons dropped back to pass 38 times in a highly competitive game in Week 2 — their Week 1 opponents in Carolina just aren’t serious challengers — which will be more akin to what we’ll see from them going forward. That still makes Bijan Robinson a top-five running back on a weekly basis and Tyler Allgeier a touchdown or bust flex in fantasy. Robinson currently leads all running backs with 10 receptions and is tearing down the internet with a multi-angle highlight. What a delightful player.
Non-obvious players I like
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions. The rookie tight end ran a team-high 29 routes in Week 2 and has caught five passes in back-to-back games. If you can find many more appealing tight ends, you’re a lucky human.
Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions. The Goff/Stafford favorite leads the team with a 31.4% air yard share. If you start more than three receivers Reynolds is as good a bet as any in this potentially high-scoring game.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Desmond Ridder ranks 14th in catchable pass rate, per Fantasy Points Data. All we are asking out of Ridder is to be merely a functional NFL quarterback. So far, so good. Last week, you even got to see some of the tools that make him so appealing to the Falcons. He ripped off a few scrambles and pushed the ball downfield. His solid play brought the best out of Drake London, whom I love this week as he gets farther from a Week 1 fluke.
As for the Kyle Pitts crowd … we’ll see.
Don’t be surprised if: Jahmyr Gibbs doesn’t just take over David Montgomery’s role. After Montgomery left the game near the end of the third quarter, we saw Gibbs get three carries and five targets but we also watched holdover Craig Reynolds get three carries and a target. Reynolds has been with the team for multiple years and if they trust his pass protection, he’s going to siphon work from Gibbs. That doesn’t mean Gibbs doesn’t get a bump just don’t be upset when he doesn’t absorb ALL the snaps.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
With the highest projected total on the slate, this one is an obvious “start all your guys” game. This matchup features the perfect blend of fireworks offense and, so far, uninspiring defense.
The Chargers' offensive transition to Kellen Moore’s leadership has been a success overall. They’re sixth in yards per play and have not turned the ball over once through two games. They’ve shown an ability to adjust to their opponent’s weaknesses with a run-heavy game plan in Week 1 against the two-high-safety Dolphins and then taking to the air against the pass-funnel Titans.
Meanwhile, whatever Brandon Staley is cooking up on the defensive side of the football is about to set off the smoke alarm. I can’t be the only one who thinks that if the Chargers lose this game, Staley’s seat will get uncomfortably hot with an offensive coordinator who has taken head coaching interviews now on the staff.
The Vikings' offense has been able to move the ball even better than the Chargers, ranking first in yards per play, but they've perfected the art of shooting themselves in the foot. Their troubling seven turnovers lead the league. They’re living on the other side of variance last season after riding high in 2022. But that still makes them an ideal contender to push this game into a high-scoring affair.
Non-obvious players I like
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers. It feels like Williams should be obvious. Yet, he seems to make his way into start/sit questions all the time, so let’s add him. There’s been no meaningful difference between opportunity for Williams vs. Keenan Allen so far, it is just skewed because Williams missed some time in Week 1. He’s a locked-in fantasy starter in this offense.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings. The rookie has only run a route on 66.7% of his dropbacks and sports a rather middling 0.18 targets per route run. So he has a low floor but has expressed his ceiling with big plays going for six in both his first two games. This looks like a spot to chase that.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers. Kelley was a letdown for fantasy managers in Week 2 thanks to a notoriously good Titans run defense. Don’t be afraid to go back to the well with Austin Ekeler out again. Kelley played on 78.5% of the Chargers snaps and ran a route on 59.1% of the dropbacks. That’s excellent usage and the Vikings are on the other side of the run defense rankings (30th in success rate allowed)
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Alexander Mattison is averaging 3.3 yards per touch. The Vikings' decision to turn the feature back gig over to Mattison doesn’t look great through two weeks but the matchups have been tough with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay on the schedule. He needs to make the most of his chances this week against an ultra-generous Chargers defense. The Vikings traded for Cam Akers, who may not present much of an upgrade himself — and was traded for fake news draft picks — but has familiarity with the coaching staff and will present an alternative if Mattison isn’t getting it done.
Don’t be surprised if: Kirk Cousins puts up another QB1 performance. We got a question on Fantasy Football Live on Friday that asked “Would you start Patrick Mahomes or Kirk Cousins?” and God forgive me, I thought about it for a minute. Cousins leads all quarterbacks in touchdown passes, is third in yards per attempt and is top-four in completion percentage. There’s no denying the production right now. This looks like another smash spot for him.
BUFFALO BILLS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
The Commanders have been plucky and efficient to date. The Sam Howell experiment is off to a great start with wins in both of his starts. Howell’s greatest strength is, in a way, his greatest weakness. He will stand in the pocket with no fear and deliver strikes to the intermediate level of the field. That also tends to get him blasted; he’s taken 10 sacks. Still, for a brand new starter under an offensive coordinator who is running the show for the first time in his career in Eric Bieniemy, the results have been encouraging.
The Bills got back on track with a predictable win last week against the Raiders. Any angst over Josh Allen’s “puke on his shoes” game from Week 1 can be put to bed for the time being. This is a tough road test, however. Washington’s defense is a nasty unit that will get after you up front — especially with Chase Young back in the mix. They rank fifth in passing success rate allowed.
Non-obvious players I like
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders. He will not be on the non-obvious list for much longer. Robinson has iced out Antonio Gibson and any other challengers in this backfield. The fantasy crowd galaxy-brained themselves into thinking Bieniemy would prefer Gibson because he’s a space back that theoretically fits in an offense like the one we’ve seen in some of the Patrick Mahomes years. Bieniemy is a former running back himself who has no doubt gravitated to the underrated Robinson’s reliable grinder style.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills. Cook’s role is a good one for fantasy — as long as you have the proper expectations — even if he loses some touches at the goal line. He owns a 51% rush attempt share and a 12.8% target share. Cooks may be called upon to handle check-down work more often against Washington’s fierce pass rush.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills. You want to chase the Gabe Davis experience against a poor secondary, like last week — this is not one of those weeks. This looks like a better matchup to turn to Kincaid or Dawson Knox, who has run an identical number of routes on the year. The rookie has caught a wild 90% of his targets.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Josh Allen’s 6.4% deep throw rate ranks 27th among QBs and is sandwiched between Kenny Pickett and Jimmy Garoppolo. That is … shocking. Is this a tiger changing his stripes or merely a two-week blip? There’s no doubt it was time for Allen’s game to evolve further and smooth out but this, combined with his lack of designed rush attempts, is notable.
Don’t be surprised if: One or both of the outside Washington wide receivers get rolling here. Sam Howell has thrown just 2.9% of his passes 20+ yards down the field, the lowest among starters but we know based on his lone 2022 start he has a hose and is capable of hitting these receivers on the go route.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
I look like an idiot for not even considering the possibility this Bucs' passing game could play above its projections this offseason. I’ll take the “L” here so far and freely admit the Bucs passing game has been great under Baker Mayfield. Week 3, however, brings a stronger test. While the Eagles defense is a dampened unit, I think we can all admit they pose a much more formidable challenge than the Vikings or unserious Chicago Bears. Still, I have more confidence in the passing game than Rachaad White at this point. It will take more than a drubbing of the Bears' defense to make me think he can be an efficient player all season.
It’s been a mildly slow start for the Eagles so far in 2023. They rank 16th in overall offensive success rate but ninth in the percentage of drives that end in a score (44%). The sky is far from falling. I still hold the same enthusiasm as ever for all of the main players in this unit and man, this offensive line is just on a heater right now after dominating Minnesota in the trenches like it was a Week 1 college football mismatch.
Non-obvious players I like
D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles. I like him, but within reason. He played 76% of the snaps, ran a route on 45% of the dropbacks and had 58% of the team carries. He’s unlikely to get that kind of workload if Kenny Gainwell is back in action. But Swift brought them such a critical dimension last week that it’s time to see him get 15-plus touches per game. Keep in mind though, this is a much tougher spot against a Bucs defense that’s notoriously challenging to run against.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m not listing Mike Evans here because he should be obvious. Few wide receivers are playing at a higher level than him right now. Godwin is also in play this week against a Philadelphia secondary that has multiple starters on the injury report and will be without slot corner Avonte Maddox for the rest of the season.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The Bucs rank eighth in dropback EPA. Again, we have to give some flowers to Mayfield here. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks when under pressure, with a league-leading 11.0 YPA and ranking second in passer rating (per PFF). That’s a departure from the chaos merchant Mayfield had been in prior years. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales looks like a home-run hire after they plucked him from the Seahawks' quarterback-coaching gig.
Don’t be surprised if: A.J. Brown is the top wide receiver on the week. The opportunity metrics between Brown and DeVonta Smith are nearly identical but the production has only gone one way so far. That can easily flip on its head this week. The Bucs have Carlton Davis a bit hobbled right now and Jamel Dean hasn’t played his best through two weeks.
STREAM
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
We get a matchup of two teams still breaking in new starters on offense. While not perfect to this point, both experiments have yielded some positive results so far.
This is a huge test for Jordan Love. The Packers starter still leads the NFL in EPA per dropback through two weeks and has had to play without Christian Watson for two games and Aaron Jones for one. Those are his two most explosive players. That said, this will be a challenge no matter who's active. Dennis Allen has the Saints defense playing with a hive mind in the secondary and they’ve clamped down — admittedly two quite bad — passing games through two games. On the flip side, Matt LaFleur is absolutely pitching heat as a play-caller right now. This will be a schematic matchup to adore in real time.
Derek Carr hasn’t been flawless. He’s converting a league-high 42.1% of his pressures into sacks, per Fantasy Points Data, and has waited too long in games to come out of his shell. When he does, this is a very good offense.
This passing game has thankfully flowed through Chris Olave, who ranks 10th in the NFL in yards after the catch (86), despite that being something he allegedly was not capable of doing.
Non-obvious players I like
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers. Jayden Reed leads the team with 38% targets per route run and is third on the team in routes run overall. It’s only a matter of time until his role expands. This isn’t the most ideal matchup in the world to play him but I want you to.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints. Thomas can’t separate like he used to or win in the open field but he’s become a reliable possession target for Derek Carr. He has a rather high 26.7% share of the first-read targets, per Fantasy Points Data, and won all four of his contested targets.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Derek Carr leads all QBs with a 20.3% deep-throw rate. See, when he lets that thing fly, we get good results. Olave is a great vertical threat and Rashid Shaheed is a true baller.
Don’t be surprised if: Alvin Kamara returns to a big role next week. Sort of a twist prediction here! I’m excited to see what rookie Kendre Miller has to offer but this will be his first NFL action coming off an injury-riddled offseason. Unless Miller blows the doors off his chance with Jamaal Williams out, Kamara could return to a workhorse gig in Week 4.
DENVER BRONCOS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins may well be the best team in the AFC. Their offense is white-hot and their defense has looked like a strong unit when it comes to defending the pass. Miami is also a dream fantasy team because everything right now is so highly concentrated. That will be even more pronounced with Jaylen Waddle out for this game with a concussion.
The start of the 2023 Denver season has been anything but a dream. The Broncos lead the NFL in penalties. Interesting for a coach who insisted his predecessor needed to shoulder the blame for “the worst coaching job in NFL history.” Russell Wilson and Payton are amid a passive-aggressive public debate about getting the plays in fast enough.
I couldn’t care less about wristband-gate. I feel the same about bumping any of their skill-position players up the rankings. Even with Jerry Jeudy back last week, no one ran a route on more than 81% of the dropbacks and the backfield remains a bit of a committee. Quite honestly, Miami is doing all the work to drag this game into the “stream” category.
Non-obvious players I like
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins. As long as Mostert is dominating the backfield like this, you need to play him every week in fantasy. Miami’s running backs were already banged up and now we can add Salvon Ahmed to that list.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos. Alright, if there is one guy I am interested in on this Broncos offense, it's Williams. He’s losing some passing-down work to Samaje Perine, who has run more routes through two games (36 to 20), but has owned a prominent 56% share of the rush attempts. Williams needs to get it done early against this defense that’s 32nd in rushing success rate allowed because if Miami gets out to a big lead, he’ll have to split those backfield targets.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Marvin Mims is eighth on the team in routes run this season but leads the team with 122 receiving yards. This captures both how explosive Mims is as a player but also how hilariously dubious this receiver room remains.
Don’t be surprised if: Tyreek Hill still goes off despite Patrick Surtain being a superstar. Surtain has been fantastic through two weeks and may well be the best corner in the NFL. He switches sides based on the matchup so Hill will run into him a good bit. However, with all the motions in Miami’s offense, Hill will get his chances to find softer coverage.
HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Dan Titus mocked me for having this game in the “stream” category on the podcast version of this preview. Nevertheless, I persist. Dan is a great fella overall but unfortunately, he is wrong on this one. This AFC South matchup sets up perfectly for fantasy football.
The Jaguars offense hasn't consistently fired on all cylinders just yet and new play-caller Press Taylor is taking some heat for that. One has to wonder if Doug Pederson doesn’t just seize the playcalling duties if this continues. However, we may not notice it this week against Houston. Week 1 was a strong debut for Demeco Ryans’ pass defense but the injuries have mounted since. Jalen Pitre out and Derek Stingley Jr. is headed for IR. This presents a nice chance for Jacksonville’s passing game to bounce back.
The cluster injuries are also present for Houston on the offensive line, with All-Pro Laremy Tunsil out but fill-in tackle George Fant practiced Thursday and Friday. We just need this unit to not be an unmitigated disaster. Dameon Pierce remains a little questionable as a clear RB2 right now but hopefully better days are ahead. Meanwhile, even if Jacksonville is able to run away with this game, C.J. Stroud and the passing game players have shown they can thrive in a negative game script.
Non-obvious players I like
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars. He should be obvious but popped up in far too many start/sit questions in FFL for my liking. Look, if a running back is playing 76% of his team's snaps and has a near 10% target share, you play him every week. Especially when his team is a nine-point home favorite like Jacksonville is this week.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans. We can’t get over our skis too far with Tank Dell, as his role isn’t far and away above Robert Woods. However, he can play as shown last week. He’s a viable flex in deeper formats.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars. Kirk got rolling last week after a slow Week 1 and led the team in routes. That may have been a bit inflated with Zay Jones dealing with an injury but Jones will miss this week's game, so we should see a lot of Kirk again.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Trevor Lawrence ranks 31st in EPA per dropback but third in accuracy rate. That leads me to believe Lawrence hasn’t been the problem here. My eyes agree. He hasn’t been flawless but has done a lot of work under pressure so far.
Don’t be surprised if: Nico Collins has another WR1 game. Everything about my guy Nico’s performance has been legitimate so far this year. He will continue to rise up the rest-of-season ranks at wide receiver.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
If Anthony Richardson was a lock to play in this game, I’d push it into the binge category. Unfortunately, he's been ruled out. I have plenty of faith in Gardner Minshew to run this offense (more on that below). Richardson just brings so much more juice to the table and is already at a point where he’s putting defensive play-callers in a bind.
The Ravens offense in Week 2 was one of the most impressive units that took the field. That was despite an injury to Odell Beckham Jr., who has looked great so far in a Ravens uniform. Mark Andrews’ return only magnified the solid returns we’re already getting from Todd Monken. I’m interested in seeing if Rashod Bateman, who is clearly being eased back into action after an arduous offseason of rehab, gets more playing time with Beckham ruled out, or if they remain on the slow burn with the talented receiver.
Non-obvious players I like
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens. Should be obvious but he’s probably not. We got to see more of Flowers playing downfield in Week 1, as he had a 12.8 aDOT. He can do real receiver things and he’ll get to do them against a subpar Colts cornerback room this week.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts. Pittman’s first-read target share (45.5%) ranks seventh in the NFL through two weeks. He’s getting open routinely and dominating looks. The Ravens have some injuries in the secondary to exploit.
Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts. He played an absurd 98% of the team snaps last week. That will change at some point but for now, ride it until the road runs out.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Lamar Jackson ranks first in RPO dropback rate with 11.3% (also ranks first in catchable pass rate and sixth in accuracy rate). Quarterback charting expert Derrik Klassen described Jackson’s performance with roses, saying, “Jackson’s decision-making and accuracy was nothing short of special. Every ball was out on time and arrived right where it needed to be. It was surgical; the kind of performance we’re conditioned to see from the Drew Brees and Tom Brady types.”
Jackson is on his way to a special campaign.
Don’t be surprised if: Gardner Minshew runs this offense well. Minshew has a deep understanding of this attack thanks to his 2022 stint in Philly. I like Richardson as much as anyone but I won’t change passing game projections with the solid Minshew under center.
CAROLINA PANTHERS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Panthers are toothless on offense and are already having to sit Bryce Young with an ankle injury. Andy Dalton will take over an offense that’s struggling to pass protect and can’t get anyone open. That’s a far cry from the Saints team he admirably led last season. Going into Seattle is far from a soft landing spot for this plummeting unit.
The Seahawks offense calmed concerns after a rough Week 1 by going on the road and out-pacing the Lions in their dome. There are still offensive line issues but Kenneth Walker is a workhorse back and both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett look set for excellent seasons. Making matters worse for Carolina, they’re going to be without Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn. Seattle should have room to rock.
Non-obvious players I like
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers. "Like-adjacent" on this one. Sanders is getting some receiving usage and clearly runs ahead of Chuba Hubbard when the game is competitive. This one could get ugly quickly, though.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 1.6 aDOT on the season (61% of routes). The rookie just is not off to a productive start. I am hoping it’s his wrist injury still limiting him from a role perspective. He’s so good he can break out at any moment. We just need to see it first.
Don’t be surprised if: Carolina gets blown out. The Panthers rank dead last with 3.5 net yards per attempt and now their defense is suffering injuries to critical players. If Seattle is a real NFC contender they’ll roll here with little resistance at home.
LOS ANGELES RAMS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
The biggest unknown in this game is the status of Joe Burrow. It makes the whole contest hard to talk about. If Burrow is out there in a compromised form, you’re likely backed into a corner of playing Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. Should we see Jake Browning start this game, all bets are off.
On that note, let’s spend some time talking about the Rams and Matthew Stafford, who is throwing as well as anyone right now. The 35-year-old quarterback has been fantastic and leads an offense that’s run an NFL-high 156 plays. He has such a great feel for the offense and is exhibiting a fantastic mind-meld with some of his younger teammates. Those headlines about how he was struggling to relate to the rest of the roster feel hilarious when you see the chemistry he has with guys like Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell right now.
Non-obvious players I like
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams. He should be obvious but just in case, Nacua is clearly a top-20 wide receiver on the board. Nacua is beating man coverage as an outside receiver, has been ultra-reliable and Stafford trusts him implicitly. It’s one of the most impressive starts to a career I’ve ever seen.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams. I don’t think Williams is going to play 96% of the snaps every week … but that’s exactly what happened last week and until someone else like Ronnie Rivers or Zach Evans steps up for a complementary role, Williams will be on the field a ton. He was a passing-down ace coming into the NFL and that fits this offense perfectly with how often they’re taking to the air.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Matthew Stafford has converted just 2.9% of his pressure into sacks and has been pressured on the 18th-most dropbacks. The play of the offensive line has been fantastic but we need to give a ton of credit to Stafford too. He looks much more comfortable navigating the pocket than he did last season, not that there was much real estate TO navigate. It’s just clear he’s more confident in his own body and what he’s seeing right now.
Don’t be surprised if: Joe Burrow doesn’t play. You only get healthy in the NFL by not playing games. That is the only path forward for the Bengals to get their quarterback right. I know they’ve lost two games and could be behind the eight-ball in the AFC race quickly but there are several possible contenders coming out of the gate slow. The Bengals should play the long game here because Burrow is their biggest possible edge … just not in his current form.
SKIP
TENNESSEE TITANS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
While I besmirched Dan Titus’ name earlier, he did convince me to bump this game down the skip category. What was I thinking before that?
The Titans are a tough watch on offense even if Ryan Tannehill was able to sting the Chargers for big plays last week. The Chargers' adjusted production does not count. The Browns are on the other side of the defensive spectrum after demolishing their first two opponents.
Cleveland just lost their best offensive player last week and Deshaun Watson looks like a shell of the player he once was. He remains an ill-fit for Kevin Stefanski’s offense, has atrocious pocket presence and is inaccurate. Watson ranks dead last with a 64.6% adjusted completion percentage, per Fantasy Points Data. If he’s simply not the same after all of the events of his own creation in the last two years, no one should be surprised.
As for new starting running back Jerome Ford, he’s definitely on the RB2 radar and you were right to spend big FAB on him. Just remember the Titans rank No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed.
Non-obvious players I like
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns. Amari Cooper remains the top dog of this offense but all the volume is there for Moore to deliver. He’s run a route in 81% of the dropbacks and has a 21.7% target share. He’s getting open; he just not getting quality throws. This is the matchup for him to potentially get them. On that note …
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The Tennessee Titans’ 10.9 aDOT allowed is the most in the league and they have the lowest hurry rate in the league (2.4%). If Watson is ever going to show anything, this would be the spot. The Titans are a notorious pass-funnel defense. Watson is just late on everything right now but this could be the matchup to get his internal clock right. If it doesn’t, we might be close to white-flag territory.
Don’t be surprised if: The Titans' passing game crashed back to earth. Ryan Tannehill had a nice bounce-back in Week 2 with a 10.2 YPA and 83% completion rate. I struggle to see how he does that against a ferocious Browns defense. DeAndre Hopkins is banged up but is the sponge target of this offense because Chig Okonkwo hasn’t gotten rolling yet and Treylon Burks still struggles to get open consistently.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK JETS
Watching the Jets this season will be like seeing reruns of that show you used to love on TV that had an atrocious ending. It’s just hard even when there are good moments, knowing how it should have been.
The Patriots have successfully rebuilt their offense but there is still a capped ceiling. As I wrote in my Week 2 Care/Don’t Care recap, the lack of difference-makers creates an issue for the overall effectiveness of this offense, even if the concepts are good. Mac Jones has thrown to his first read on 79.2% of his passes, per Fantasy Points Data, because they’re playing with so much tempo. There just isn’t enough juice on the other end of those targets.
Non-obvious players I like
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots. Henry has 13 targets on the season and has cleared 50 yards and a score in both contests. If you have better options, congratulations. Most don’t.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Expected fantasy points per game for the RBs (per Fantasy Points Data): Dalvin Cook 7.1, Breece Hall 6.2 and Michael Carter 3.3. This perfectly reflects the larger issue. The backfield is split up way too much and the overall health of the unit is compromised with Zach Wilson at the helm.
Don’t be surprised if: The floor bottoms out for Garrett Wilson. The Jets receiver has avoided his frightening floor in both weeks thanks to signature plays; a catch-of-the-year candidate and a 68-yard catch-and-run touchdown. He can do those things because he’s a special player. When he doesn’t create magic all on his own, it’s going to be dicey.
DALLAS COWBOYS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cowboys are the most overwhelming defense in the NFL right now and get their third-straight juicy matchup. They’ll have to go the rest of the way without star cornerback Trevon Diggs, as he tore an ACL in practice. As long as Micah Parsons is on the field though, this unit will terrorize quarterbacks.
As well as the Cardinals have played relative to expectations, this is a difficult spot.
Non-obvious players I like
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals. Any running back playing almost 80% of his team snaps is in weekly consideration. If you have viable alternatives, feel free to steer clear but you may not have that luxury at this troubling position.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Josh Dobbs’ 6.4% completion rate over expected ranks sixth best in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. It should just be noted that Dobbs is playing well enough to give the Cardinals a reasonable chance in games right now. This week is just as difficult as it will get for any quarterback.
Don’t be surprised if: CeeDee Lamb has another signature game. Lamb is having a rather quiet fantastic season right now and is just inhaling all the passing production in Dallas — and rightfully so. Lamb has caught 94.1% of his catchable targets so far, tied for the NFL lead. No wide receiver is responsible for a higher percentage of his team’s passing yards than Lamb at 55.3% and I see no reason for that to change.
CHICAGO BEARS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Bears have enjoyed a week full of nothing but chaos, somehow making their off-field experience even worse than the on-field product. Waiting for them on the other side of this difficult week? A trip to Kansas City.
Even if the Chiefs haven’t figured it all the way out on offense, they’re getting there. Skyy Moore bounced back in Week 2 and Travis Kelce, even if not 100%, made a difference in his return. The Bears defense will provide little resistance.
Non-obvious players I like
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs. He has run more routes than Jerick McKinnon this season. As long as he suits up with a hamstring injury, which looks likely, Pacheco is in a great spot this week. A script where the Chiefs are beefy 12.5-point home favorites is perfect for him and he’s already getting more passing-down work than expected.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Justin Fields is averaging 2.5 designed runs per game this season compared to 6.3 last year (8-61-TD as a scrambler). Will we see that change after some of his public comments regarding the offense this week? Perhaps. It may make the Bears offense more viable but as last year showed, it’s nothing more than a band-aid solution.
Don’t be surprised if: The Chiefs' fantasy defense clears 20 fantasy points. Chris Jones’ impact was immediately felt in Week 2 and the defense was already solid in Week 1 without him. Now, they’ll welcome a sack-prone quarterback captaining a team in chaos. This is an eruption spot.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
I can’t believe the NFL is putting us in torture protocol once again with another Steelers primetime performance. I really liked the talent on this offense in the offseason but with Kenny Pickett’s performance and Diontae Johnson’s injury, expectations have been dramatically dialed back.
That said, the Raiders defense is a much different beast than the 49ers and Browns.
On the other side, the Raiders have run the fewest plays in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo has played better than expectations and it does look like Jakobi Meyers is set to return. Still, the Steelers stop unit is no joke, so while you’re playing Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, it’s not the most ideal spot.
Non-obvious players I like
None.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The Steelers rank 32nd in percentage of drives that have ended in a score. Yes, the competition has been as difficult as possible through two weeks but your eyes will tell you this is a “both things can be true” result. The Steelers have issues on the line and their quarterback’s ability to thrive in chaos has eroded from what we watched late last year. Matt Canada is, as usual, not helping. If the Steelers can’t deliver a big performance against the Raiders, we’re in closing-time territory.
Don’t be surprised if: George Pickens delivers another monster performance.
Finally, let me be positive. I will give Canada credit for doing the bare minimum and actually having Pickens run some routes over the middle of the field. As long as Pickens is getting real receiver usage he’s able to breakout on any given week. The Raiders rank 31st in dropback success rate allowed so this is as good a week to chase the ceiling as any.
