Bills vs. Patriots: 5 things to watch for during Week 18’s game
The finale to the regular season has arrived, and for Buffalo, it features a familiar foe.
The New England Patriots travel to Orchard Park this week for a 1 pm EST game on Sunday.
The Pats will look to avenge an NFL week 13 loss to Sean McDermott’s club while the Bills will play for the first time since an unprecedented near-tragedy in a now-canceled game against the Bengals.
Here are five things to watch for during Thursday’s Bills-Patriots matchup:
Big things in small packages
Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
Since QB Josh Allen has been the Bills starter, they’ve won every regular season finale game except a contest during their 2019 campaign against the Jets in which Matt Barkley primarily took snaps under center. These two teams met just over a month ago, and Buffalo won 24-10.
Allen has thrown at least two TDs in each of his last four games against the Patriots and went 22 for 33 and 223 yards passing in Week 13. Dawson Knox had no catches and only one target but has since re-emerged as a threat in the passing game alongside WR2 Gabe Davis, who had a touchdown in their last meeting. Slot receiver Cole Beasley has also since re-joined the team, adding another player that requires coverage while also fitting the Modus Operandi of the Bills game plan in the passing game during that previous victory.
The Bills ran all over Gillette Stadium in that matchup, with Allen’s ground effort (20 yards) backing RBs Devin Singletary (51 yards and a TD) and James Cook (64 yards.) But they also did it via tosses and not just handoffs. The three primary receivers after Diggs were smaller speedsters on the ground as well, Isaiah McKenzie (44 yards), Cook (41 yards), and Neyheim Hines (21 yards.)
Whether Allen’s managing his elbow or his passing game is being moderated not to ‘show his hand’ too much ahead of the playoffs, he and the Bills are winning games and will look to do the same on Sunday.
Diggs turning a corner
Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
Speaking of offensive targets, the first meeting between these teams took place following a competitive game that the Patriots had in week 12 against the Vikings. In that contest, WR Justin Jefferson had 139 receiving yards and a touchdown as Patriots CB Jonathan Jones gets crossed up on routes. As predicted in my Bills at Patriots: 5 things to watch for during Week 13’s game for BillsWire, he had similar luck trying to defend elite route runner and Bills receiver Stefon Diggs who cooked Jones like a well-done steak putting up 92 yards receiving with a touchdown.
I was inside the visitor’s tunnel during that Thursday Night Football meeting between the two teams in Foxborough, and as the Bills walked through past to take the field after the half, Diggs jogged through the corridor with some teammates, yelling to them “THEY DON’T KNOW I BEEN WORKING! THEY DON’T KNOW I’VE BEEN WORKING! YOU KNOW WHAT I’VE BEEN WORKING ON?… MYSELF!”
The 5-10, Jones played out of the slot prior to this season but has been called into primary receiver coverage following the offseason departure of J.C. Jackson. Plus the Bills simply have too many offensive weapons for New England to double Diggs with a Safety the way the Patriots have covered star receivers in the past. Plus, Jones (chest) and fellow corner Jalen Mills (groin) have both been limited in practice this week, and CB Myles Bryant struggles in coverage and would not be able to match up well with top receiving threats.
Something to watch for will be another productive game by the Bills WR1.
Freeze the Patriots offense
Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills defense is stronger than the last time they faced the Patriots, a game in which they held New England to 195 yards passing and only 60 total yards on the ground. While the Bills offense went 9-15 in converting first downs, the Patriots struggled on third-down possessions going 3-12.
The Patriots offensive line struggled as well, as the Bills defensive front four applied pocket pressure to Mac Jones (who also became notably frustrated by play calling) while their secondary dropped seven players into coverage, leaving little air between them and Patriots receivers downfield that New England had to rely on rookie DB and special-teamer Marcus Jones to generate some offense.
Continuing that pressure in the pocket and secondary while also defending Marcus Jones should he play and take snaps on the offensive side of the ball, and continuing to limit and stop Rhamondre Stevenson will be keys to watch for.
Health matters
Injuries have played a factor in both games between these squads this season.
Defensive back Damar Hamlin’s injury left a hole to fill as well for Buffalo, who also started Xavier Rhodes at corner across from Tre White the last time these clubs played each other. This week the Bills cut Rhodes, a healthy scratch in recent weeks, to sign safety and former Bills practice squad member Jared Mayden off the Jets practice squad to help fill the void. First-round rookie Kaiir Elam was inactive for their first game against New England, and with corners like him, and Dane Jackson, as well as Taron Johnson (concussion) who is working his way back from injury, the corner group will need to continue to play well.
DE Shaq Lawson and the pass rush group played well in their last meeting, stepping up in OLB Von Miller’s injury absence, and will need to continue to do the same. The veteran’s leading the way sets a good example for the younger players to follow.
While the rest of the Bills injury report indicates they may be resting players by downgrading them from full to limited or DNP, the Patriots have a banged-up receiver group going into Sunday with TE Jonnu Smith and WR Davante Parker both working through concussions, and WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder) looking to get healthy.
Also, the Pats have a banged-up secondary, with the aforementioned injuries to CBs Jones (chest) and Mills (groin) but also DB Marcus Jones, who was a standout in the first matchup, has been dealing with a concussion. All those players on both sides of the ball were limited in practice for New England this week with their game-day status yet unknown.
In their first meeting, the Bills were without left tackle Dion Dawkins, and his replacement David Quessenberry struggled a bit and injured his ankle early in the game. The offensive line held one of the NFL sack leaders, linebacker Matthew Judon, at bay, but allowed his fellow LB Josh Uche to notch six tackles and two sacks. There is always room for improvement, and while warding off Judon is important, protecting QB Josh Allen from all sides is as well.
Something to watch for will be the Bills getting healthy, and playing inspired and effectively in all three phases of Sunday’s game with the goal of finishing their regular season with a win in front of what is likely to be an electric home crowd.
Finish the job
Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
In their prior meeting, the Bills dominated the time of possession (38:08 to the Patriots 21:52) with offensive drives that included up to 8:55, 4:50, and 4:55 running off the game clock. They had a balanced attack on offense, with 33 passing plays and 34 plays running the ball.
On defense, they pressed and frustrated Mac Jones and rendered his receivers ineffective, while limiting the Patriots run game.
Buffalo is looking to win out in the regular season and will have a chance to do just that at home against a divisional team they are very familiar with. If they can apply themselves similarly on both sides of the ball effectively, it could lead to a similar outcome.
If the Patriots de facto slogan is “do your job”, then it could be said that the Bills one for this game can be “finish the job”. They beat New England on the road and will have a chance to do so again Sunday at home in front of Bills Mafia.
