Bills vs. Bengals prediction and keys to the marquee playoff game of the weekend
ORCHARD PARK — Finally, the game that so many in Buffalo and Cincinnati, as well as NFL fans all around the country, have waited for: Bills vs. Bengals, this time with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line Sunday afternoon.
All of the games in the divisional round of the postseason are juicy in their own way — after all, this is 2022’s Elite Eight. But the showdown at Highmark Stadium just feels like the marquee matchup of the weekend when you consider the brilliance of the quarterbacks, the depth of each roster, and the circumstances surrounding their last attempt to play each other.
And then there’s this: With the Bengals having won nine games in a row and Buffalo on an eight-game heater, this is just the seventh playoff meeting between teams on winning streaks of at least eight games, and the first before the conference championship round.
Of course, these teams were ready for a rock ‘em, sock ‘em game three weeks ago and the way it started that night in Cincinnati, it looked like it might live up to its billing as potentially the game of the year. And then, well, you know what happened and the game disappeared from the NFL schedule.
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So, as you might imagine, players and coaches on both sides are eager to get this thing going.
“They’re the reigning AFC champions, so I think that really is all that needs to be said in terms of the amount of respect that we have for them,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said.
His counterpart, Zac Taylor, said, “There’s no playoff road that’s easy. That’s just the nature of it. You’ve got to earn it all and we’ve got a team that wants to earn it all. It’s always going to be a challenge, but this team has never turned down a challenge.”
JUMP TO: Sal's prediction for Bills vs. Bengals
Here’s my preview of the game:
Buffalo Bills on offense: Josh Allen has to limit turnovers
Last week, there was a method to the madness of Josh Allen throwing 13 passes at least 20 yards downfield. The Dolphins’ blitzing, cover-zero defense was too tantalizing for Allen to ignore, so it was bombs away. And yes, the Bills put up 34 points and Allen threw for 352 yards, but he also had three turnovers and too often passed up easier completions that could have moved the sticks and probably would have made it a less stressful day overall in terms of putting the Dolphins away.
It will be interesting to see if the Bengals use a similar strategy to bait Allen into a similar mindframe and then bank on the premise that they can defend the deep shots better than Miami. The Bengals were not a big blitz defense during the season as they blitzed 20.4% of the time compared to Miami’s 33.3%, but Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anurumo has built his name on being a great game planner on a week to week basis. He is known for designing specific plans that demand his players be versatile and to sometimes step outside their comfort zone, and what he also does better than most is make in-game adjustments. What the Bills see early may not be what they see late, and it will be on Allen to recognize that.
The Bills need WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to win on the outside because the only truly vulnerable area on the Bengals defense is their boundary CBs, Eli Apple and rookie Cam Taylor-Britt. Safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell are a solid duo, but you can’t double-team everyone and if they focus on Diggs in particular, Davis and then whoever is in slot — Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir and Cole Beasley — plus TE Dawson Knox will have to give Allen alternatives. Also, this would be a good time to get RBs James Cook and Devin Singletary a little more involved in the pass game to give Allen some simple, run-game-extended throws.
What’s odd is that while the Bengals talented front seven generates decent pressure, it managed to sack the QB just 5.1% of its pass rushing downs, fourth-lowest in the NFL. With edge rushers like Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson plus powerful DTs D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill, you would expect more, but this week, those guys are going against a Bills offensive line that has been average all season and just gave up seven sacks to the Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills on defense: Make Joe Burrow uncomfortable
Perhaps the biggest key to this game will be the Bills’ ability to get heat on Burrow without blitzing, thus allowing them to play the bulk of the day in zone (which Burrow struggles with more than man coverage) and cover the Bengals’ talented array of passing game weapons with seven defenders. Buffalo’s pass rush has been underwhelming since Von Miller went down on Thanksgiving, and since then it has needed to blitz more often than Leslie Frazier prefers in order to get pressure.
But blitzing Burrow is not a great strategy. He has been blitzed 18.6% of his dropbacks and his passer rating is a phenomenal 112.3 with 12 TDs, three picks, and 8.2 yards per attempt, so it’s incumbent on the front four to play well. The good news for the Bills is they may not need to send extra rushers because the Bengals will be without three offensive line starters — RT Lael Collins, LT Jonah Willians, and LG Alex Cappa.
Their anticipated replacements, Hakeem Adeniji, Jackson Carman and Max Scharping, as you might expect, simply aren’t as effective. This is now a below average offensive line and two players who have been pretty quiet in recent weeks, Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau, have to lead the way and create some chaos for Burrow.
However, just because the Bills may have an advantage up front doesn’t mean it will be easy to get to Burrow. The only QB who delivered the ball quicker this season than Burrow’s 2.35 seconds was Tom Brady at 2.28. Similar to Miami when Tua Tagovailoa (2.44) is playing, Burrow gets it in the hands of WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon early and then they go to work. According to Pro Football Focus, Burrow’s average depth of target is 7.5 yards, 19th in the league (Allen had the highest at 10.2). But the Bengals make up for that with 2,227 yards after catch counting the postseason which is eighth-most in the league, so rallying to the ball and tackling will be at a premium for Buffalo.
Another key for Frazier is to be multiple in his calls. The Bills are typically very good at disguising coverage, and if they can make Burrow think for that split-second longer and perhaps push him to a second or third read, that could lead to success. As for the run game, the Bengals haven’t had much of one all year. Their best total in the last four games is 73 yards, and this season they were under 90 yards in 11 of 17 games. The Bills have to account for Mixon, but the primary focus has to be on defending the pass.
Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 30, Cincinnati Bengals 28
This may have been the toughest game I had to pick all year. These two teams are evenly matched, each with great quarterbacks, potentially explosive offenses, and solid and efficient defenses. Ultimately, the only reason I’m landing on the Bills is because of the home-field advantage. If this game was in Cincinnati, I would have picked the Bengals.
I know destiny has nothing to do with anything, but it just feels like the Bills have some of that in their corner. They’ve gone through so much adversity this season, yet somehow won 14 of 17 games, lost the three by a combined eight points, and even when they haven’t played particularly well, they’ve almost always found a way to get the job done. I think that’s a key intangible that could come into play Sunday.
Bills vs. Bengals: News and notes
▶ Last week McDermott joined Marv Levy as the only Bills coaches to win their first four home playoff games. All-time, the Bills are 13-1 in home playoff games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The only loss was to the Jaguars in 1996.
▶ Allen is the fourth QB in history 26 years of age or younger to throw for at least 15 postseason TDs. The others are Patrick Mahomes, Bernie Kosar and Ben Roethlisberger. Allen also is the second QB since 1970 to have 12 TD passes in a span of three postseason games, joining Kurt Warner (2008-09). Finally, if Allen throws for 300 yards and three TDs, he would become the first QB in history to do that in four straight playoff games.
▶ Only two QBs in the last 45 years have led the NFL in turnovers during the regular season but gotten his team to a conference title game. Allen could become the third, joining the Giants’ Eli Manning in 2007, and Buffalo’s Jim Kelly in 1992.
▶ Knox has caught a TD in five straight games. The only TEs since 1970 with a longer streak within a single season as Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski.
▶ When Diggs and Davis each topped 100 yards last week, it was just the third time in Bills history two receivers did that in a playoff game.
▶ Over the past 15 years, only three teams have averaged at least 28 points per game and allowed fewer than 18 per game: The 2019 Ravens, and the 2021 and 2022 Bills.
▶ With five catches on Sunday, Chase will become the fourth player in NFL history with at least five receptions in each of his first six career playoff games joining Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins and Wes Welker.
▶ Since the start of the 2021 postseason, five games in all, the Bengals have 11 takeaways.
▶ Cincinnati is attempting to become just the eighth team since the 1970 merger to begin a season 0-2 and still advance to its conference championship game.
▶ Last week when the Bengals beat the Ravens, it was the first time in team history where they won a playoff game in back-to-back seasons following their success from 2021.
▶ The Bills are the only team in the NFL this season to have never been an underdog.
2022 Buffalo Bills schedule
Thursday, Sept. 8 at Rams, W 31-10
Monday, Sept. 19 vs. Titans, W 41-7
Sunday, Sept. 25 at Dolphins, L 19-21
Sunday, Oct. 2 at Ravens, W 23-20
Sunday, Oct. 9 vs. Steelers, W 38-3
Sunday, Oct. 16 at Chiefs, W 24-20
Sunday, Oct. 23 Bye week
Sunday, Oct. 30 vs. Packers, W 27-17
Sunday, Nov. 6 at Jets, L 17-20
Sunday, Nov. 13 vs. Vikings, L 30-33
Sunday, Nov. 20 vs. Browns, W 31-23
Thur. 11/24 at Lions, W 28-25
Thur. 12/1 at Patriots, W 24-10
Sun. 12/11 vs Jets, W 20-12
Sat. 12/17, vs. Dolphins, W 32-29
Sat. 12/24 at Bears, W 35-13
Mon. 1/2 at Bengals, ppd.
Sun. 1/8 vs. Patriots, W 35-23
Sun. 1/15 vs. Dolphins, W 34-31
Sun. 1/22 vs. Bengals, 3 p.m.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs. Bengals prediction, keys to the playoff game
