Bills scouting report: Scouting the Ravens’ divisional-round opponent
The Buffalo Bills are the only thing between the Baltimore Ravens and the AFC Championship Game. That makes this AFC divisional-round matchup between the two sides possibly the best game in a star-studded weekend of action.
The Bills finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, their best season since they went 13-3 in back to back in 1990 and 1991. Sean McDermott, the Bills head coach, has led the team to the playoffs in three of his four seasons at the helm. The only other coaches in team history with three postseason berths are Marv Levy and Lou Saban.
Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL, ranked No. 4 in total DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Bills finished as the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind only the Kansas City Chiefs, and their first-place finish in the AFC East marked their first division title since 1995.
The Bills overcame a spirited showing from the Indianapolis Colts in the wild-card round to advance to meet the Ravens. The Colts outgained the Bills 472 -397, but Buffalo made just enough plays to pull off a 27-24 victory — the first since 1995.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Ravens can expect to see from the Bills this week:
Bills offensive overview
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills' offense is coordinated by Brian Daboll, who is more likely than not in his final weeks with the team. He's expected to earn a head coaching gig of his own after his work with the team, especially in the 2020 season. Buffalo holds the fourth-ranked offense according to DVOA, in large part to their work as a passing team. The Bills were among the leaders in neutral pass rate in 2020, taking to the air on 62% of their plays whenever the game was within a score. Daboll favored formations with as many wide receivers on the field as he could get in 2020, lining up with three (11 personnel) on 74% of their offensive snaps and four (10) on 15%. They were second in the league in their usage rate in both groups. The 2020 Bills were no mere drop-back passing outfit and made frequent use of play-action and run/pass options. They were second in the league with 181 play-action pass attempts, while only five teams called more RPOs than the Bills. Buffalo is one of only two teams in NFL history to pick up at least 20 first downs in every game of a 16-game regular season. The offense is excellent at moving the chains on third and fourth downs. They converted 49.7% of their third-down attempts as well as 80% of their fourth downs -- Both marks led the NFL. Daboll's unit scored 501 points in the regular season and gained 6,343 yards. Both of these marks were good for second in the NFL, as was their scoring rate of 49.4%. They were middle of the pack in terms of drives ending in a turnover, as they coughed up the ball on 11.8% of their possessions. The Bills scoring drives were comparatively long drawn out affairs, consuming almost three minutes at a time. This was the fifth-longest in the league.
Bills offense - passing
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Player | Pos | GMs | Yards | Att | Comp | Comp% | TD | Int | Yd/Att | Rating |
QB | 16 | 4,546 | 572 | 396 | 69% | 37 | 10 | 7.9 | 107.2 | |
QB | 5 | 197 | 21 | 11 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 9.4 | 80.9 | |
WR | 15 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 20 | 158.3 | |
WR | 16 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 12 | 156.2 |
Josh Allen made incredible strides as a passer in 2020, finishing with franchise records in passing yards and touchdowns. The Bills' 4,620 passing yards were third-most in the league, with the same being true of their 40 passing scores.
Player | Pos | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Yd/Tgt | Tgt Shr |
WR | 16 | 168 | 127 | 1,535 | 8 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 29% | |
Cole Beasley | WR | 15 | 107 | 82 | 967 | 4 | 11.8 | 9 | 20% |
WR | 16 | 62 | 35 | 599 | 7 | 17.1 | 9.7 | 11% | |
Devin Singletary | RB | 16 | 52 | 38 | 269 | 0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 9% |
John Brown | WR | 9 | 52 | 33 | 458 | 3 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 17% |
Dawson Knox | TE | 12 | 43 | 24 | 290 | 3 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 9% |
Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 16 | 34 | 30 | 282 | 5 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 6% |
Zack Moss | RB | 13 | 18 | 14 | 95 | 1 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 4% |
Tyler Kroft | TE | 10 | 16 | 12 | 119 | 3 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 5% |
Lee Smith | TE | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2% |
Andre Roberts | WR | 15 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 1% |
T.J. Yeldon | RB | 3 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 5.5 | 4% |
Reggie Gilliam | RB | 14 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0% |
Taiwan Jones | RB | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 1% |
Antonio Williams | RB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 3% |
Jake Kumerow | WR | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 1% |
Josh Allen | QB | 16 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0% |
Bills offense - rushing
Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills have made no pretense about establishing the run in 2020, basing their offense firmly on the benefits of the forward pass. As a result, the Bills have only 1,723 rushing yards this season, a mark exceeded by 19 other teams. These yards came at a 4.2 yards per attempt average, the 19th best in the league, while the team scored a combined 16 rushing touchdowns. Eight of these were scored by Allen.
Player | Pos | GMs | Att | Yards | TD | YPC | % Tm Att | FumL |
Devin Singletary | RB | 16 | 156 | 686 | 2 | 4.4 | 38% | 1 |
Zack Moss | RB | 13 | 112 | 481 | 4 | 4.3 | 33% | 0 |
Josh Allen | QB | 16 | 102 | 420 | 8 | 4.1 | 25% | 6 |
Antonio Williams | RB | 1 | 12 | 63 | 2 | 5.2 | 48% | 0 |
Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 16 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 | 2% | 0 |
T.J. Yeldon | RB | 3 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 7 | 15% | 0 |
Matt Barkley | QB | 5 | 6 | -6 | 0 | -1 | 5% | 0 |
Andre Roberts | WR | 15 | 1 | -3 | 0 | -3 | 0% | 2 |
Gabriel Davis | WR | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 |
Bills defensive overview
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is the Bills defensive coordinator, a position he has held since 2017. The defense, for many years the strength of the team, has been a somewhat mediocre outfit in 2020. They rank 12th in terms of DVOA. Frazier is a fan of the blitz, and send extra rushers on 35.8% of the Bills defensive snaps in 2020. This was the eighth-highest rate in the league. The Bills outputs were towards the middle of the pack in terms of points and yards allowed, as well as scoring rate. They allowed the 17th most points (375), gave up the 19th most yards (5,640) and 39.4% of drives against them ended in a score. That was the 18th best rate in the league. One area they did excel in however was in takeaways. 15.3% of drives against the Bills ended with a turnover. Only the Miami Dolphins took the ball away at a higher rate in 2020.
Bills defense - passing
AP Photo/Adrian Kraus
The Bills allowed 3,726 yards through the air in 2020, the 20th most in the NFL. 23 receiving touchdowns were allowed by Frazier's defense, the 22nd most. Bills defenders picked off 15 passes, with stud cornerback Tre'Davious White leading the way with three, for the seventh-most in the NFL. Like the other defensive statistics, when it came to affecting the quarterback, the Bills were not a special squad. They finished the season with 38 sacks and 92 quarterback hits, good for 15th and 13th respectively. They were 22nd with 135 pressures at a rate of 21%. A.J. Klein and Mario Addison tied for the team lead with 5.0 sacks each. The Bills had a serious issue with covering tight ends in the passing game. They gave up 91 receptions to the position in the regular season, more than any other team. This is good news for Mark Andrews, who could be a key factor in the Ravens passing game on Saturday.
Bills defense - rushing
Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Inviting their opponents to join them in a weekly shootout actually helped the Bills run defense over the course of the season. They gave up their yards at a 4.6 yard per attempt average while allowing 21 rushing scores. If the Bills hadn't been able to score almost at will through the air, teams would undoubtedly have compiled far more than the 414 rushing attempts they actually managed. That being said, Bills defenders did rack up 72 tackles for loss, with seven from Addison, for the ninth most in the league. But they also missed 127 tackles, "good" for the sixth-most in the NFL. Klein led the team with 17 misses, but Taron Johnson, Tremain Edmunds, Jordan Poyer, and Jerry Hughes all had double-digits in terms of misses. Hughes missed at a worryingly high rate of 27.5%.
