The biggest question for USC football fans: Has a decision already been made about Alex Grinch?

USC Athletic Director Jennifer Cohen will watch her current employer face her former employer this Saturday when the Trojans play the Washington Huskies. That forms the remarkable backdrop to this weekend’s prime-time game in the Los Angeles Coliseum. It also forms the basis for a hugely important conversation surrounding USC football and the health of the program.

Jennifer Cohen did not hire Lincoln Riley. She did not interview him. She inherited him. Moreover, she inherited Riley likely thinking USC would do really well this season. Instead, USC appears to be in need of significant changes on the coaching staff.

The obvious plot complication: What if Lincoln Riley doesn’t want to fire those staffers? Cohen would be in a tough spot.

However: We don’t ultimately know what anyone privately thinks. We don’t know what the internal temperature is inside the corridors of power of USC athletics. For better or worse, we really need to know: Has a decision already been made about Alex Grinch?

We firmly think he should be fired. We also think strength coach Bennie Wylie should be fired. That’s our view.

We currently think Grinch will be fired. We don’t necessarily think Wylie will be fired, but that Wylie could be on the hot seat if the next month goes horribly wrong.

Let’s put predictions aside. Let’s discuss scenarios and plot points to underscore why it is so important what USC’s internal process is in relationship to Grinch. It’s very essential to know where the power brokers stand, so that we can then measure how impactful these next few games will be in reshaping the program for its Big Ten future:

IF GRINCH IS ALREADY TOAST, IT MEANS A LOT

We repeat: We are dealing with hypotheticals here since we don’t know what the major power players actually, privately, think behind the scenes.

We are dealing with scenarios and want to explain what each scenario might mean.

In this scenario — Jen Cohen and Lincoln Riley have already privately decided not to bring Grinch back for 2024 — the need for USC to lose games is diminished.

The idea of USC losing to guarantee Grinch getting fired is not a consideration if Cohen and Riley have already decided to move on.

IF COHEN AND RILEY HAVE ALREADY DECIDED TO FIRE GRINCH

If Jen Cohen and Lincoln Riley have already canned Alex Grinch and will merely make it a formality on November 19 (after USC plays its 12th regular season game), there might still be value in USC losing these next few games. Getting strength coach Bennie Wylie fired is, in our opinion, equally as important as Grinch being sent packing. If Cohen and Riley have already conceded that Grinch has to go, but they’re not yet sure about Wiley, USC might need to lose in order to make sure Wylie isn’t retained.

IF COHEN AND RILEY HAVE ALREADY DECIDED TO FIRE BOTH GRINCH AND BENNIE WYLIE

If Cohen-Riley have already privately decided to fire both Grinch and Wylie, there is zero downside to USC winning its next several games, since the goal of getting Grinch and Wylie out has already been achieved. If these coaches are fired, one should expect an announcement on November 19 or 20.

IF COHEN-RILEY HAVE NOT PRIVATELY DECIDED TO FIRE GRINCH

If Cohen-Riley have not privately decided to fire Grinch, we first have to ask: Has Cohen already had a sitdown conversation with Riley about Grinch? In other words, is Cohen privately pushing Riley to fire Grinch, but not yet demanding that Grinch be fired? Or, is Cohen not yet sure Grinch has to be fired? Or, does Cohen want to let Riley do things his way? Is she not even willing to step in and insist on changes?

We don’t know the answer to any of these questions, but they’re obviously all very important to USC football and the future of the program.

Let’s establish one key point: It’s important if Cohen wants Grinch out, even if Riley does not. That’s a very different scenario from neither Cohen nor Riley wanting Grinch out. If that’s the case, Grinch is probably staying for 2024, which is the nightmare USC needs to avoid.

IF NEITHER COHEN NOR RILEY WANT TO FIRE GRINCH

If neither Cohen nor Riley want to fire Grinch, it becomes very important for USC to not only lose, but lose big, to Washington and Oregon. The Trojans would need to get crushed in November. That might change the minds of both the AD and the head coach.

We doubt this is the case, but if this is true, then USC really does need to get embarrassed in November in order to create necessary changes on the coaching staff.

IF COHEN WANTS TO FIRE GRINCH BUT RILEY DOES NOT

If Cohen wants Grinch out but Riley doesn’t, Cohen obviously needs more evidence — more meat on the bone — to potentially convince Riley he has to change his defensive coordinator. At the very least, USC would need to fail to make the Pac-12 Championship Game in order to possibly nudge Riley toward sacking Grinch. Realistically, if Riley is not yet at a point where he knows he has to fire Grinch, USC probably needs to lose at least two of its remaining games to change Riley’s mind. Only one loss in the next three games might not be enough.

BENNIE WYLIE

We think Bennie Wylie should be fired, but we don’t know what the internal politics are in relationship to his level of job security. We can say with some confidence (maybe not total confidence) that Alex Grinch is on a hotter seat than Wylie. If USC is doing this right, however, Grinch and Wylie should have equally hot seats and should both be canned after the regular season.

WHY NOT FIRE GRINCH NOW?

USC fans will reasonably ask, “Why not fire Grinch now?”

The main reason is that if Lincoln Riley doesn’t want Grinch fired, or isn’t yet convinced he needs to fire Grinch, these games against Washington and Oregon could give Riley the final proof he has to act and make changes.

Jen Cohen would be unwise to force Riley to fire Grinch now, because that might place unnecessary strain on the relationship between USC’s AD and head football coach. Giving Grinch the chance to face Washington and Oregon offers him one final chance to prove he should stay on the job. Riley might be grateful that Cohen didn’t try to strong-arm him during the regular season. It would make it easier to execute a firing and a transition in late November.

THE TIMELINE

If Grinch is fired after the regular season, the move would likely come on November 19 or 20. Remember that USC doesn’t play on Thanksgiving weekend due to a quirk in the schedule. That week off would give USC added time to begin a defensive coordinator search and line up interviews with candidates. This adds to the idea that USC doesn’t have to fire Grinch now. It will have plenty of time to pursue top candidates in the second half of November.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire