Big Ten bids in NCAA tournament could be sparse
Feb. 2—Most bracketology projections have six Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field. Only a few could be considered locks a month-plus out from Selection Sunday. Illinois beat writer Scott Richey breaks down the league into tiers based on just how mad — or sad — their March could wind up becoming:
Tier I: No doubt tourney teams
The Big Ten as a whole will face the usual question once the NCAA tournament begins. Can the conference snap a two decades-plus streak without a national title? The most likely candidate, of course, to become the first Big Ten team to cut down the nets since Michigan State in 2000 is Purdue. But the Boilermakers will have to face down their own March issues after losing to double-digit seeds in each of the last three tournaments. Wisconsin and Illinois are the only other surefire locks to secure a bid — and probably a strong seed. The Illini were getting Final Four hype before Terrence Shannon Jr.'s suspension. Rediscovering a stingier defense would help that cause.
Tier II: Could stand to bolster their chances
Michigan State has the metrics and the "What have you done lately?" level of success since its disastrous 4-5 start to extend Tom Izzo's record streak of consecutive NCAA tournament teams to 26. But a few more wins — particularly away from the Breslin Center — wouldn't hurt. The same is true for Northwestern and Nebraska. The Wildcats, with top-10 wins against Purdue and Illinois, only have the anchor of their home loss to Chicago State dragging them down. The Cornhuskers are lights out at Pinnacle Bank Arena (just ask Wisconsin), but snagging a Big Ten road win or two could be key for Fred Hoiberg's program.
Tier III: Looking longingly at the bubble
Teams in this tier like Maryland and Iowa have mostly failed to meet preseason expectations. Minnesota is the outlier. The Gophers were a mess last season. Wholly uncompetitive in the Big Ten to a degree Ben Johnson entered his third year as coach firmly on the hot seat. A half-dozen Quad I opportunities await that could vault a better Minnesota team this year up the NET rankings. Maryland has shown signs of the top-four Big Ten team it was supposed to be and is at least back to .500 in league play, while Iowa won more often than not in January. Both teams still need more wins.
Tier IV: Desperate for a Minnesota miracle
The Big Ten tournament will make a cameo (everyone hopes) appearance in Minneapolis in March. A full 36 percent of the league — Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Michigan — will have to win the whole thing to snag the auto bid. It's their only shot. Even a strong February probably won't be enough to undo the damage they've already done to their résumés to get back in the bubble conversation. At least they'll have a shot this year. Come next season, the Big Ten basement dwellers won't even get an invite to the 15-team conference tournament.
