Betting odds released for which NFL team will draft Oregon QB Bo Nix
The coaching carousel in the world of college football seems to finally be coming to a close, and the transfer portal has cooled at long last. With about a month until spring football gets underway in Eugene, we have an opportunity to focus on the upcoming NFL draft, and where the many soon-to-be pro Oregon Ducks might end up.
While a large number of former Ducks will likely be playing on Sundays next season, one of the most intriguing is quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix seems to be a polarizing figure in the world of draft analysis. Some think he could be a first-round pick who comes off the board as soon as the early teens. Others believe he has a middle-to-late second-round grade.
This past week, FanDuel Sportsbook placed betting odds on which team would draft Nix in April. Here’s where they think he is most likely to go, along with some of our analysis on the potential suitor for Oregon’s QB.
Denver Broncos
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +260
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 12
Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to New Orleans)
Starting QB in 2023: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham
Analysis: It’s interesting that the Broncos have the best odds to draft Nix, because they would have to do it with their first-round pick or make a trade to get into the top of the second round if Nix is still available. Most mock drafts have Nix going late in the first or early in the second, so Denver taking him off the board at No. 12 would be a great result for the Oregon QB.
Minnesota Vikings
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +470
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 11
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 42
Starting QB in 2023: Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
Analysis: It feels like there needs to be a middle ground for the Vikings. Taking Nix at No. 11 seems a high at this point in the pre-draft process, but it seems hard to believe he would still be around at No. 42. Either way, it’s clear the Vikings need a new QB this draft, so they need to figure something out.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +550
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 13
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 44
Starting QB in 2023: Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garopoolo, Brian Hoyer
Analysis: Las Vegas would be reaching it it took Nix at No. 13, but it could certainly do that if the Raiders like what he offers and the early run on QB goes as expected. If they don’t take him at No. 13, it’s hard to believe the Oregon QB would be around at No. 44.
New Orleans Saints
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +750
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 14
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 45
Starting QB in 2023: Derek Carr, Jameis Winston
Analysis: It’s not hard to see Bo Nix turning into a Drew Brees-style quarterback, is it? That’s not to say he is going to have the career that Brees had, but it’s not like Nix is some 6-foot-6 gunslinger who is going to operate strictly out of the pocket. If New Orleans were to take Nix at No. 14, some would probably view it as a reach, but there’s very little chance he is still there at No. 45, so if they like him they should take him.
Atlanta Falcons
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1000
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 8
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 43
Starting QB in 2023: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke
Analysis: I was honestly surprised to see Atlanta this high on the list, because I don’t think they are in the right zone to take Nix. No. 8 feels like too early of a pick, and No. 43 is likely too late. It feels like the Falcons either need to trade up to get one of the top three guys off of the board or trade down into the teens where they could grab the former Duck.
Los Angeles Rams
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1000
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 19
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 52
Starting QB in 2023: Matthew Stafford, Brett Rypien, Carson Wentz
Analysis: The Rams are an interesting addition to these betting odds. They have to feel pretty good about what they have with Matthew Stafford, but he is closer to the end of his career than to the start of it. Taking Nix at No. 19 — I think a very solid range — would make sense and give Nix a chance to grow behind likely future Hall of Famer Matt Stafford and incredibly well-respected head coach Sean McVay. This feels like an ideal situation.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1300
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 26
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 57
Starting QB in 2023: Baker Mayfield
Analysis: This feels like a range that makes sense for Nix to be selected, though it may be a little bit late. Tampa Bay has to like what it got from Baker Mayfield last season. But we’ve seen before that Mayfield may not always be the best long-term answer. Giving Nix a chance to come in and compete for the job with the idea that he can sit and grow in the system behind Mayfield may not be a bad option.
New England Patriots
Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1600
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 3
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 34
Starting QB in 2023: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
Analysis: I really don’t see New England drafting Nix unless it goes a wild route and drafts someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. with their first pick. He would be a great talent, but that would be a very bold move considering they need a QB and there are three established Tier 1 QBs in this draft. Should the Patriots do that, though, they might be able to get Nix with their second-round pick or trade up into the end of the first round to get their QB.
Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1900
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 16
Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to New York Giants)
Starting QB in 2023: Geno Smith, Drew Lock
Analysis: The range makes sense for Seattle to go after Bo Nix with the 16th pick in the draft, but it’s about what their feelings are on Geno Smith at this point. I think it would be a pretty great situation for Nix to land in, with a new coaching staff in Seattle and a chance to grow in a solid foundation.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +1900
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 20
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 51
Starting QB in 2023: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph
Analysis: We all know the Steelers are in desperate need of a new quarterback, and this range definitely makes a lot of sense for Nix to be selected. I think that would be a pretty solid landing spot for the Oregon QB, but he would be thrust into the fire right away.
New York Giants
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +2500
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 6
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 39, No. 47 (From Seattle)
Starting QB in 2023: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito
Analysis: I don’t really see Nix ending up in New York, because I think they are out of range to end up getting him. No. 6 in the draft feels far too early to take him, but there’s a low chance that he is still available at No. 39. The Giants could end up trading down or trading up and ending up with him, but I think there more likely options out there.
Chicago Bears
Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +3400
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 1 (From Carolina), No. 9
Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to Washington)
Starting QB in 2023: Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent
Analysis: It feels almost like a lock that Chicago is going to take Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick, but if it ends up trading that pick, I see a world where it grabs Nix somewhere in the middle of the first round, or maybe even with the No. 9 pick in the draft, though that is a little bit early.
Washington Commanders
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +4800
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 2
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 36, No. 40 (From Chicago)
Starting QB in 2023: Sam Howell
Analysis: The Commanders will probably take a QB with the No. 2 pick, be it Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Because of that, I don’t see a world where they end up getting Nix.
Tennessee Titans
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +4800
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 7
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 38
Starting QB in 2023: Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill
Analysis: I think No. 7 is a bit too early to take Nix in the first round, and I don’t think he will still be around at No. 38. So if Tennessee is going to end up with Nix I think it will have to either trade down or trade back into the first round after its first pick.
Arizona Cardinals
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Betting Odds: +4800
First-Round Draft Selection: No. 4, No. 27 (From Houston Texans)
Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 35
Starting QB in 2023: Kyler Murray, Josh Dobbs, Clayton Tune
Analysis: How long until Arizona moves off Kyler Murray? If that answer is “soon” then it would make sense for it to grab its future signal caller, and I think the Cardinals could be in a spot to take Nix at No. 27, or potentially grab him as a steal at No. 35.
