Who is better: USC’s Lincoln Riley or LSU’s Brian Kelly? Plus many other coaching comparisons
The release of the 2024 SEC football schedule is the big story in college football this week. Lincoln Riley won’t face that schedule, but it’s fascinating to contemplate an alternate reality in which he would have.
“Riley and USC will go from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten in 2024. Had Riley stayed at Oklahoma, he would have made a change in conferences as well, going from the Big 12 in 2023 to the SEC in 2024.
“Either way, Riley was going to have to make some very big adjustments in terms of the opponents he faced. Familiar scouting reports, either in the Pac-12 at USC or in the Big 12 with OU, were going to matter a lot less. He was going to face a largely new slate of opponents in 2024. No escape.”
Want to engage in some interesting offseason college football debates? We’re here to help! Let’s compare Lincoln Riley to LSU’s Brian Kelly, and let’s compare the Big Ten coaches Riley will face in 2024 to the SEC coaches Riley (mostly) won’t face in 2024.
Here we go:
RILEY AND KELLY
Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC on November 28, 2021. One day later, Brian Kelly left Notre Dame for LSU. These coaches are compelling figures in their own right. The comparison takes on greater resonance when you realize they both pulled off stunning moves within 36 hours of each other.
Get more LSU news, analysis and opinions at LSU Tigers Wire.
Get more Notre Dame news, analysis and opinions at Fighting Irish Wire.
Get more Oklahoma news, analysis and opinions at Sooners Wire.
IS KELLY BETTER THAN RILEY?
The case for Brian Kelly in a two-way comparison with Lincoln Riley would focus on getting Notre Dame to the BCS National Championship Game and then to multiple College Football Playoffs. A crucial added element would be Kelly’s 2009 season at Cincinnati. The Bearcats came very, very close to making the BCS title game versus Alabama. Beating Nick Saban and Alabama in Year 1 at LSU doesn’t hurt, either.
THE CASE AGAINST KELLY
The case against Kelly being better than Lincoln Riley goes straight to 2016, when Kelly went 4-8 at Notre Dame. He also lost five games in 2014. Lincoln Riley’s worst season as a head coach, purely in terms of wins and losses, was last year: 11-3 at USC.
IS RILEY BETTER THAN KELLY?
The case for Riley against Kelly in a head-to-head comparison is precisely what we alluded to earlier: Riley’s worst season in terms of games lost was a three-loss season. Riley winning 10 games per season has been a sure thing, a reliable outcome throughout his coaching career. The 2020 pandemic season was shortened, but Riley did not lose more than two games that year. Riley has three College Football Playoff berths and stacks of conference championships. Brian Kelly has not had to coach in a conference for most of the past 13 years. He coached in the ACC in the pandemic, when Notre Dame did play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. He coached in the SEC last season at LSU. The SEC will tell us just how well Brian Kelly can coach; he certainly made the grade in Year 1.
THE CASE AGAINST RILEY
The case against Lincoln Riley includes an 0-3 record in the College Football Playoff. Not beating Georgia after having a 17-point lead in the 2018 Rose Bowl (a playoff semifinal) is a stinging defeat. Riley made bad decisions in that game, notably a squib kickoff which enabled Georgia to get three points before halftime and a decision to kick a field goal on 4th and short in overtime.
The other element Kelly fans/apologists would reasonably mention is that Kelly’s sample size is much larger than Riley’s. Let’s see Riley go through seven or eight more seasons as a head coach. Kelly has been good at Cincinnati and Notre Dame and (so far) at LSU. Riley might be elite, but skeptics need to see him get USC to the playoff and to a national championship game first.
That’s not an unreasonable request.
2024
News Joshua L Jones
Riley versus Kelly in Week 1 of the 2024 season is a huge game. For two coaches who both have very substantial credentials, a game of such stature and importance — USC versus LSU in Vegas — is undeniably going to shape the debate about which coach is better.
OTHER BIG TEN-SEC COACHING COMPARISONS
Everyone will wonder — we certainly have! — about an alternate world in which Lincoln Riley was preparing to coach in the 2024 SEC instead of the 2024 Big Ten. Let’s go through several head-to-head coaching comparisons below:
NICK SABAN VS JIM HARBAUGH
Riley will face Harbaugh when USC hosts Michigan in 2024. He would have faced Saban if he stayed at Oklahoma. The Sooners host Alabama in the 2024 SEC schedule.
Saban, Kirby Smart of Georgia, and Dabo Swinney of Clemson have owned college football over the past eight years. One of them has won the national title in seven of those eight seasons, the only exception being LSU in 2019, thanks to Joe Burrow.
Jim Harbaugh struggled for several seasons at Michigan, but in 2021, he finally figured it out. Saban, in contrast, endured a difficult 2022 season at Alabama and might be fighting an uphill battle in 2023 with a less-than-great quarterback situation. Saban is obviously the better coach, but Harbaugh has better odds of thriving in 2023. We’ll see how these coaches are situated heading into 2024.
Get more Alabama news, analysis and opinions at Roll Tide Wire.
Get more Michigan news, analysis and opinions at Wolverines Wire.
Get more Georgia news, analysis and opinions at UGA Wire.
FICKELL VS HEUPEL
Riley will face Luke Fickell when Wisconsin plays USC in 2024. He won’t face Heupel, but if he had stayed at Oklahoma, the Sooners would have faced Heupel and Tennessee when the Vols go to Norman for a 2024 SEC game.
Both Fickell and Heupel have made New Year’s Six bowls with Group of Five programs — Fickell with Cincinnati in 2021, Heupel with UCF in the 2018 season. Fickell, though, took Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff. He is the first coach to take a Group of Five school to the playoff.
Heupel had his big year at UCF in 2018, and then he came to Knoxville and — in two seasons — has lifted Tennessee to a New Year’s Six bowl win and restored national prominence.
Both coaches are excellent, but Fickell’s playoff at Cincinnati is the biggest achievement of anything the two coaches have done in their careers.
Get more Wisconsin news, analysis and opinions at Badgers Wire.
Get more Tennessee news, analysis and opinions at Vols Wire.
FRANKLIN VS FREEZE
James Franklin will face Lincoln Riley in the 2024 Big Ten season. Riley won’t face Auburn’s Hugh Freeze in the 2024 SEC season. Oklahoma will visit Auburn, but with Brent Venables as head coach.
Franklin has won the Rose Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl at Penn State. His 2016 Penn State team came very close to making the playoff. He has had several very good seasons, but also some very ordinary seasons, as Penn State’s head coach. He has had to go through Ohio State and Michigan in the same season, but it also has to be said that Michigan was less than great in some of those PSU campaigns.
Hugh Freeze has beaten Nick Saban multiple times in the SEC, having done so at Ole Miss. He took the Rebels to multiple New Year’s Six bowls. His tenure in Oxford was shortened by a scandal of his own making. His new chapter at Auburn will be fascinating on many levels.
Get more Penn State news, analysis and opinions at Nittany Lions Wire.
Get more Auburn news, analysis and opinions at Auburn Wire.
KIFFIN VS FERENTZ
Lincoln Riley will face Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz in the Big Ten. He won’t face Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss in the 2024 SEC season, though USC and Ole Miss will play a nonconference game in 2025 in the Los Angeles Coliseum.
Ferentz has coached at Iowa since the late 20th century. He has been on the job for almost 25 years and forged some considerable successes. Kiffin, who coached at USC and struggled (though he did have a big year in 2011), has begun to figure out the finer points of coaching. Ferentz has the better overall career, but Kiffin is a better coach in 2023 as long as Ferentz fails to modernize his offense in Iowa City.
Get more Iowa news, analysis and opinions at Hawkeyes Wire.
BEAMER OR FITZGERALD?
Shane Beamer used to work under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. It would have been quite a storyline if Beamer faced Riley in the 2024 SEC season. OU does host South Carolina in what will be an emotional game next year.
Pat Fitzgerald has authored some great seasons as Northwestern’s football coach, but those great seasons (including a Big Ten Championship Game appearance) coexist with a lot of bad seasons. Is Beamer or Fitz the tougher coach to go against? It’s not an obvious call, though we will say that South Carolina has better personnel than Northwestern entering 2023.
RANKING THE SEC COACHES LINCOLN RILEY WON'T FACE IN 2024
Riley will face Brian Kelly when USC plays LSU in 2024, so there are only seven coaches on Oklahoma’s 2024 SEC schedule Riley will not face, as opposed to eight.
Let’s rank them:
7. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
6. Steve Sarkisian, Texas
5. Shane Beamer, South Carolina
4. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
3. Josh Heupel, Tennessee
2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn
1. Nick Saban, Alabama
RANKING THE BIG TEN COACHES LINCOLN RILEY WILL FACE IN 2024
Let’s rank the Big Ten coaches Riley will face in 2024 at USC:
9. Ryan Walters, Purdue (not so much a low ranking as “incomplete/unknown”)
8. Mike Locksley, Maryland
7. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
6. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
5. Bret Bielema, Illinois
4. Chip Kelly, UCLA
3. James Franklin, Penn State
2. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
1. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
