TCU bettors needed something ridiculous to happen to cover the spread on Saturday.
Something ridiculous happened.
The Horned Frogs were a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM for Saturday's game vs. West Virginia. TCU had its moments in which it looked like it might cover, but a Mountaineers touchdown with a little more than four minutes left cut TCU's lead to 34-31.
Veteran bettors knew the math. TCU needed a touchdown to cover, but the Horned Frogs would be just as happy running out the clock and going back to Texas with a three-point win. Good for them, bad for bettors.
In the final minute TCU was trying to run out the clock. They went for it on fourth-and-one. Bettors probably weren't even paying attention anymore, because even if TCU got the first down they would take a knee before scoring. They certainly weren't going to do something crazy like pass it deep ...
OMG TCU (-7.5) WITH THE LAST MINUTE HEAVE FOR THE COVERpic.twitter.com/Hv2P1NhlbU
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 29, 2022
Wow. West Virginia jumped offside, and TCU QB Max Duggan decided, hey why not throw it up for grabs? Savion Williams hand-fought the cornerback, pulled in the pass and scored an improbable touchdown for an even more improbable cover.
And to add to the madness, the total for the game was 68.5. The touchdown moved the total from 65 to 72. If you had West Virginia and the under, that bad beat is not one you're bouncing back from anytime soon.
TCU could have run ahead for a yard. Duggan could have taken a knee after the offsides (and he probably should have; had Williams been called for offensive pass interference it would have made the penalties offsetting). The play itself had a pretty low chance to be completed. Williams might have caught it a yard short.
Anything could have gone wrong on that play. West Virginia +7.5 bettors (and under bettors) were sick when it resulted in a touchdown and a 10-point TCU win.