Assessing a potential Knicks trade for Paul George
If you’re Knicks president Leon Rose, do you run it back next season?
Do you think RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes, Mitchell Robinson, etc. can help you take a step forward? Are you willing to bet that internal improvement of those young players, and a full year of Josh Hart, can get you past the second round?
Or, do you trade some of those young players and draft picks for an established star? There could be several big names on the trade market this season: Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, Zion Williamson, Paul George, Joel Embiid, Zach LaVine, etc.
You can include up to eight first-round picks in a trade, so you have the draft capital to make a competitive offer. And your young players – Barrett, Grimes, Quickley, Robinson – have improved their trade value since last summer. That gives you the opportunity to put together a compelling trade package for a top player.
With that in mind, we’ll look at the details of potential trades for top players over the next two weeks. We started with Towns, Williamson, LaVine, and Bradley Beal (who looks to be headed to the Phoenix Suns), and we’ll look at Embiid, Brown and others.
Today, we breakdown the math, pathways and impact of a George trade to the Knicks:
What would the Knicks need to give up?
George will make $45.6 million in 2023-24. The Knicks would need to send the Clippers at least $41.3 million in player salaries, or as little as $36.3 million in player salaries if they intend to be hard-capped at the first apron, in order to satisfy NBA trade rules. Let’s say they want to avoid the first apron. They can do this in a number of ways. (Our scenarios include the assumption that New York declines Derrick Rose’s team option and picks up Miles McBride’s team option.)
If the package to Los Angeles includes Evan Fournier, New York would need to send out an additional $22 million in the deal. A package including Fournier, Barrett and draft compensation would work. This would allow the Clippers to shed salary in 2023-24 and in 2024-25, when Fournier’s contract expires. If the Clippers want Robinson, the Knicks sending out a package including Robinson, Toppin, Fournier and draft compensation would work.
Also worth noting in any trade conversation about the Knicks: Grimes’ 2023-24 salary is $2.4 million. I assume New York would do everything it could to keep Grimes (and Quickley) out of a deal. I also assume that any team making a significant deal with New York would want Grimes and/or Quickley in the trade. From a salary perspective, it’s easy to include Grimes’ $2.4 million in a package that sends out $41 million.
Of course, the Knicks can send out more than $41 million in a trade for George. But we’d assume the Clippers want to take back less salary to improve their flexibility and avoid any punitive measures in the new collective bargaining agreement.
**We’re not commenting on the wisdom of trading these players for George; we’re just laying out the math involved in making the trade work.
Why would he be traded?
The Clippers have been disappointing during the tenure of George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers, according the NBA reporter Marc Stein, gave teams the impression that they were – at the very least – gauging George’s value on the trade market.
Maybe they feel this is the time to break up the George/Leonard experiment? Head coach Ty Lue is entering the final year of his contract. Due to injuries or in-season load management, Leonard and George have played just 142 games together over four years. They are 50 games over .500 in those games, but it hasn’t translated to postseason success.
If the Clippers earnestly considered moving George, would New York be interested?
There are certainly people in the organization who feel he is a tremendous addition to a team that won 47 games last season. The Knicks had contact with Los Angeles prior to the draft about a potential trade. It is unknown if the Clippers were willing to move George prior to the draft. Obviously, they were open to having conversations.
We’ll find out more about where the Clippers stand on George over the next few weeks of the NBA offseason.
Could the Knicks still add players after a George trade?
Yes. Depending on the specifics of the trade and any subsequent moves, the Knicks should have access to one of the midlevel exceptions after a George trade. So they would have a tool to add other free agents. But they might be limited financially in future seasons if George is on the roster with other high-salary players. The 33-year-old has a player option on his contract for the 2024-25 season. If they traded significant pieces for George, you’d assume that the Knicks would want to re-sign him. The new CBA has punitive rules in place for teams that spend above a certain threshold, particularly once we get to the 2024-25 season. Also, if the Clippers are trading George, they would do so while still hoping to compete for a title in 2023-24. Could the Knicks give the Clippers that kind of player? Would a third team need to be involved?
Just food for thought as you consider what the Knicks should – or shouldn’t – do this offseason.
