Assessing Louisville athletics' value in the ever-changing world of conference realignment

Editor's note: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated the capacity at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, which is 60,800.

Where does the University of Louisville stand in the latest round of NCAA conference realignment?

For now, the Cardinals are firmly rooted in the ACC. The Aug. 15 deadline for universities to notify the conference about plans to head elsewhere in 2024 came and went without any detractors despite reports of seven other members, Florida State being the loudest of the bunch, exploring the possibilities of greener pastures.

The ACC's grant of rights agreement tying up revenue streams until 2036 complicates matters, but anything feels possible after Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, UCLA, Utah and Washington have announced their departures from the Pac-12 in the past year.

What comes next is anyone's guess, but this is a given: high-profile programs with the most to gain from lucrative deals between two emerging super leagues, the Big Ten and the SEC, and their television partners, FOX and ESPN, don't want to be on the outside looking in.

Does U of L fit the bill? There are several factors to consider, including the state of the athletics department's top revenue driver, its football team, and the city's television market. A look at both through a conference realignment lens sheds light on where the Cardinals may find the most success.

Assessing Louisville football's value in conference realignment

The return of native son Jeff Brohm, and the head coach's success on the player acquisition front, has Louisville trending in the right direction.

Whether or not Brohm can lead his alma mater to a renewed sense of national relevance in the College Football Playoff era will be determined over the coming months, but the Cardinals have proven capable of reaching some of the sport's highest stages with victories in the 2006 Orange Bowl and the 2013 Sugar Bowl and quarterback Lamar Jackson's Heisman Trophy run in 2016.

If you build it, they will come, it seems. U of L told The Courier Journal as of mid-August it had sold 37,000 season tickets for Brohm's inaugural campaign at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (capacity: 60,800). A strong showing on the field and in the stands this fall will only make the program more attractive in conference realignment.

But the Cardinals have a long way to go if they want to work their way up the national pecking order, with talk of college football breaking free from the NCAA and forming a super league made up of the sport's most-watched powerhouse programs.

Five of Louisville's 12 regular-season games last year were broadcast on the ACC Network, and two aired regionally on Bally Sports South. Its most-watched game of the season came in Week 3 against Florida State, a matchup that drew 2.75 million viewers on ESPN.

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Tennessee, meanwhile, averaged more than 4 million in weekly viewership. Traditional ACC powers such as Clemson, Florida State and Miami fared better than the Cardinals in that regard, too. When it comes to building a national brand that will consistently draw huge television audiences, Louisville has some major catching up to do if it wants to join college football's top tier.

Brohm's arrival could turn up the spotlight and help U of L earn more money when the ACC's "success incentive initiative," which rewards members based on performance in revenue-generating postseason competition, begins in 2024, especially if some of the conference's top contenders head elsewhere. Until he has established a consistent track record of success here, however, the best course of action may be staying put and waiting to see what opportunities present themselves.

Conference realignment: Explaining the ACC's grant of rights deal

Assessing the Louisville television market's value in conference realignment

With a reported 721,070 television homes during The Nielsen Company's 2022-23 season, Louisville is the country's 48th-largest market — one spot behind a North Carolina triad (Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem) and one spot ahead of Albuquerque-Santa Fe in New Mexico. Landing U of L in 2014 remains the ACC's greatest westward expansion to date, although it was offset by the loss of the country's eighth-largest TV market (Washington, D.C.) with Maryland's move to the Big Ten.

Louisville is among the smallest markets in the ACC when stacked up against Atlanta (sixth), Boston (ninth), Miami (18th), Pittsburgh (26th) and the league's statewide appeal in North Carolina — Charlotte ranks 21st, followed by Raleigh-Durham-Fayetteville at No. 23.

The same would hold true if the Cardinals joined the Big 12 or the Big Ten, the latter of which has seemingly made membership in the Association of American Universities a prerequisite for gaining entry — 17 of its 18 schools heading into 2024 are part of the prestigious invite-only research university group; U of L isn't. Meanwhile, Kentucky's spot in the SEC, and its prevalence in its rival's city, almost guarantees the conference won't double dip when it already has a claim to the market.

The appetite for college sports here can't be denied, however.

While the Louisville men's basketball team was as far as one can get from the NCAA tournament last season and other schools with local ties, UK and Indiana, failed to advance past its first weekend, a report from Sports Business Journal crowned the 502 the country's top local market for March Madness consumption in 2023 with an average rating of 13.3. CBS Sports later told The Courier Journal the city has reigned supreme during 20 of the past 21 tournaments, further cementing its status as "The College Basketball Capital of the World."

What does all of this mean when conference realignment comes into play?

The ACC reported a record $617 million revenue during the 2021-22 fiscal year, trailing only the Big Ten ($845.6 million) and the SEC ($802 million), but that gap will grow even larger with schools in both conferences set to receive about $75 million in 2024 under the new media rights deals. Its long-term grant of rights with ESPN means less potential to catch up; and if schools like Florida State and Clemson effectively break from the iron-clad agreement and bolt for super leagues without forfeiting years of broadcast revenue, earnings would likely take a hit.

The Big 12 ranked fifth nationally in FY2022 revenue ($480.6 million) but should make up considerable ground with the Pac-12 seemingly on its last legs and four of its schools with top-30 TV markets — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — joining the conference when Oklahoma and Texas leave for the SEC next year. Last October, the league extended its media rights agreement with ESPN and FOX through 2030-31 and will see its average annual return jump from $220 million to $380 million when the current deal expires in 2025.

The ACC doesn't have that kind of flexibility, but Louisville was in about as good of shape as anyone under the current agreement last year. U of L received the second-largest take ($40.4 million) of the conference's FY2022 revenue distribution, according to tax documents released in May. And of the eight member schools that reported their financial performance for that time period, USA TODAY Sports analysis revealed the Cardinals ranked fourth in revenue ($146.23 million) behind only Clemson ($158.28 million), Florida State ($161.14 million) and Virginia ($161.92 million).

Taking all of that into consideration leads to a couple of questions: If the ACC loses its most prominent football brands to the super leagues, and if it is unable to add new members that move the needle nationally, does Louisville want to stick around and try establishing itself as an annual contender for the conference title and the spoils that come with it? Or would it be in the program's best interest to link up with the Big 12, which may soon offer a more competitive product and could benefit from expanding its TV footprint in the Ohio Valley?

We may not get answers for a while, but the debate isn't ending anytime soon.

C.L. Brown: U of L, UK aren’t safe as conference realignment continues to change college sports

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Conference realignment news: Look at University of Louisville's value