Race for Champions League: Which two of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham will reach promised land?
After picking up just one point from four matches, Tottenham are suddenly looking nervously over their shoulder at the chasing pack. They remain in third but are just one point ahead of Arsenal and three in front of Manchester United. And should Chelsea win their game in hand then they too will join Arsenal on 60 points.
So who is most likely to claim the final two Champions League spots, and who will fall short?
Tottenham - 3rd, Pld 30, Pts 61, GD 25
Reason to be cheerful
Confirmation that Tottenham will finally move to the new White Hart Lane after the international break provided some much-needed cheer, while continued progress in the Champions League offers fans plenty to get excited about.
Reason to be fearful
The dreadful league form that has seen Spurs lose three and draw one of their last four matches. In the space of a couple of weeks they have gone from title contenders to clinging onto a top four spot.
And the truth is that this is not a blip that can be easily dismissed. You have to go back to New Year's Day for Tottenham's last convincing performance in the league. For a team that's normally so consistent, it's a worrying trend.
Strength of opposition
Trips to Manchester City and Liverpool look about as enticing as a weekend at Fawlty Towers, especially given Tottenham's poor away record against the Big Six. Otherwise, Spurs's fixture list is pretty kind, especially the home schedule of matches against Crystal Palace, Brighton, Huddersfield, West Ham and Everton.
Form
Awful. A solitary point from four matches has left Tottenham reeling.
Harmony
All of a sudden, the cracks are starting to show. Mauricio Pochettino was once again furious after his side's 2-1 loss at Southampton, accusing his side of "arrogance" and "complacency". He even suggested that the recent defeats might prove to be a positive: "It’s good because a lot of people now are going to realise our real level."
The outburst was construed by some as pointing towards Pochettino's departure in the summer.
Manager rating
Almost universally popular among the fans. It's impossible to overstate how much Spurs would suffer were he to leave at the end of the season. That said, a few supporters have taken umbrage at his recent criticisms of the club and its ambitions.
Distractions
Moving into the new White Hart Lane and speculation around Pochettino's future are two major off-field issues for Spurs to manage until the end of the season. By contrast, the continuing progress in the Champions League is a more welcome distraction, and could offer an alternative route into next year's competition.
Injuries
The return of Eric Dier and Dele Alli is a major boost, and besides Harry Winks and Kieran Trippier - both of whom are expected back for Tottenham's next match on March 31 - Tottenham have a fully fit squad.
History of bottling
Rich and varied pedigree in this area. From the infamous lasagne to Chelsea winning the Champions League to celebrating an imaginary goal scored by Newcastle against Arsenal, Tottenham have consistently found new and zany ways to make a mess of qualifying for Europe.
If only there was a pithy phrase to sum up this habit Spurs have of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Pressure - How critical is Champions League qualification?
Potentially fundamental to their future - both in relation to keeping Pochettino and key players like Christian Eriksen, as well as financially to make up for the over-spending on the new stadium.
Our prediction: Will recover from this blip and just about hold on to top four spot.
Arsenal - 4th, Pld 30, Pts 60, GD 24
Reason to be cheerful
Four points from the games against Tottenham and Manchester United was a very healthy return, and has left them exactly where they want to be - in the top four.
Reason to be fearful
Arsenal's terrible away form - just five league wins under Unai Emery - means it's not inconceivable they'll fail to pick up another victory on the road before the end of the season. Leicester, Watford, Everton, Wolves and Burnley look like pretty imposing fixtures for a team that won five league games on the road in the whole of 2018.
Strength of opposition
No more Big Six opposition makes Arsenal's fixture list look a little less imposing than their rivals. It's those awkward looking away matches that will be concerning Emery.
Form
Very good. Four wins and a draw from their last five league matches has put Champions League qualification back in their own hands.
Harmony
Prone to changing as quickly as Thierry Henry screeching past Jamie Carragher, but for the moment the mood is broadly positive. After all a place in the top four and still in the Europa League - just - is a respectable position to be in. Beating United has given everyone at the club a major boost.
Manager rating
A really good few weeks for Emery, during which he tactically outwitted first Pochettino and then Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. There were complaints earlier in the season that Arsenal lacked a coherent identity, but that has largely given way to an appreciation of the head coach's tactical flexibility. Picking up points against the biggest teams has also greatly improved his standing.
Distractions
Come what Thursday Arsenal could be out of the Europa League and with nothing but the Premier League to focus on. The noise around Mesut Ozil has also quietened down, with Emery skillfully integrating him into his plans.
Injuries
Rob Holding and Hector Bellerin's long-term absences have seriously undermined Arsenal's defence, which has been exposed again and again this season. In recent weeks though, impressive performances from the likes of Sokratis and Ainsley Maitland-Niles have belatedly provided Arsenal with some much-needed solidity.
Danny Welbeck is also out for the season, and robs Arsenal of a valuable attacking option.
History of bottling
Missed out on fourth in the 2017-18 season after a damaging mid-season dip. Last year they were so far from the top four they didn't even have the chance to bottle it.
Pressure - How critical is Champions League qualification?
Extremely. Arsenal's entire business model is predicated on Champions League qualification funding their transfer spending. To miss out for a third straight season would be disastrous.
Our prediction: Troubles on the road will see United pip them at the post.
Manchester United - 5th, Pld 30, Pts 58, GD 18
Reason to be cheerful
Solskjaer's appointment has transformed the mood at the club, and made anything seem possible - witness the incredible comeback against Paris Saint-Germain.
Reason to be fearful
There's no reason to panic after such a brilliant run, but there is a slight feeling following Sunday's defeat at Arsenal that perhaps United might be due a sticky patch after Solskjaer's almost unblemished start.
Strength of opposition
A testing run-in. United play Big Six opposition in two of their remaining eight matches, as well as facing potentially awkward trips to Wolves and Everton.
Form
Excellent - aside from Sunday's defeat at Arsenal. But even taking that setback into account, United have picked up more points than any other team since Solskjaer took over.
Harmony
After the gritty kitchen sink drama of the Jose Mourinho era, Solskjaer's United is more like an episode of Neighbours. Sure, there are scrapes along the way but really everyone loves each other and things tend to turn out alright.
Manager rating
Through the roof. Charming, tactically smart, adores the club. If United fans were creating their dream anti-Mourinho coach in a lab, they'd struggle to produce something better than Solskjaer. Appears certain to be given the job full-time at the end of the season.
Distractions
Ongoing involvement in the Champions League and FA Cup could leave United with a fixture pile-up. Speculation around Solskjaer's future could become an issue if results start to turn.
Injuries
United's injury crisis is easing slightly, with Anthony Martial and Nemanja Matic returning to action on the weekend. Ander Herrera and Phil Jones are expected back shortly but there is less certainty over the return dates of Juan Mata and Jesse Lingard. Alexis Sanchez may not be seen again until May.
History of bottling
No great pedigree in the bottling stakes, though failed to finish in the top four three seasons ago when they were involved in a similarly tight race.
Pressure - how critical is Champions League qualification?
Financially, United could cope without qualifying for the Champions League, while their history and standing ensures big names will still want to join. The most tangible blow to missing out could be in the calibre of manager they are able to attract should they ditch Solskjaer at the end of the season.
Our prediction: United to pinch the fourth and final Champions League spot.
Chelsea - 6th, Pld 29, Pts 57, GD 19
Reason to be cheerful
The improved performance in the League Cup final prompted a run of three straight wins, which showed that Maurizio Sarri has not completely lost the trust of the players.
Reason to be fearful
Sunday's home draw against Wolves was a reminder that the same old failings under Sarri - too much sideways passing and precious little penetration - have yet to be eradicated.
Strength of opposition
Trips to Anfield and Old Trafford look daunting, especially after comprehensive defeats at Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City already this season. To stand a chance of finishing fourth, Chelsea must take advantage of theoretically straightforward home games against Brighton, West Ham, Burnley and Watford.
Form
Mixed. Three wins, three defeats and a draw from their last seven league games summarises Chelsea's inconsistency.
Harmony
A player refusing to come off in a cup final, a manager on the verge of being sacked, the threat of a court case with the previous manager... it's been a season that wouldn't look out of place in a series of Sky One drama Dream Team. The last week or so has been relatively placid, but there's surely a nerve-shredding end-of-season cliff-hanger on the way.
Manager rating
After looking like a dead man walking - especially in the wake of Kepa Arrizabalaga's mutiny - Sarri now looks like he might cling onto his job until the end of the season. That said, there are plenty at Stamford Bridge who are still far from convinced by his methods - especially after Sunday's dirge against Wolves.
Distractions
As ever with Chelsea there's plenty going on off the pitch, but at least verdicts have been reached on the transfer ban and allegedly anti-Semitic chanting in Budapaest. The rumours around Sarri's future should also die down, even if only for a week or so.
On the playing front, their Europa League involvement means their fixture list will remain squeezed over the next few weeks.
Injuries
Chelsea have a clean bill of health as we reach the business end of the season.
History of bottling
Only twice in the Roman Abramovich era have Chelsea failed to qualify for the Champions League - though one of those was last season when they fell away spectacularly after Christmas.
Pressure - How critical is Champions League qualification?
Financially they could take the hit, but to miss out on the Champions League for a second consecutive year would almost certainly mean losing Eden Hazard. It would also be a reputational disaster, which would not go down well with the image-conscious Abramovich.
Our prediction: A second successive finish outside the top four.
Who do you think will finish fourth? Let us know in the comments below
