Arkansas vs. UConn: Comparing the teams by the numbers – Huskies have advantage
Connecticut is the higher-ranked seed. Las Vegas favors the Huskies. They’ve been here more often. Their numbers are better.
Just about everything in the world points to UConn being the favorite in the Sweet 16 against Arkansas on Saturday. For our purposes, we’re going to take a look at that last part.
Numbers are what they are. They tell a story of what’s happened, but not necessarily what will happen. Things can still be gleaned from data, though, that suggest an outcome. It’s why managers select pinch-hatters or, more to the point of Hogs hoops, why Eric Musselman changes his rotations so significantly from game to game.
What the Arkansas coach has done in the last week has worked like a charm. Kamani Johnson up. Nick Smith down. The Razorbacks’ games played the way that would yield those as the best results.
But when tip comes Saturday, another set of decisions come with it. Here are some of the (admittedly more basic) numbers that go into such things. Let’s compare Arkansas and UConn this season.
Arkansas vs. UConn: Scoring offense
Mar 18, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) drives to the basket against Kansas Jayhawks forward K.J. Adams Jr. (24) and forward Jalen Wilson (10) during the second half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
UConn: 78.5 points per game – 31st nationally
Arkansas: 74.3 points per game – 112nd nationally
The ranking may look awfully far apart, but the numbers themselves aren’t too far off. The Huskies can fill it up as well as just about anyone in the country, however, so expect a relatively high-scoring game.
Arkansas vs. UConn: Scoring defense
Mar 16, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) blocks the shot of Illinois Fighting Illini forward Ty Rodgers (20) during the first half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
UConn: 64.7 points per game – 38th nationally
Arkansas: 67.4 points per game – 98th nationally
Connecticut holds the edge defensively, too. Arkansas was in the top third in the country, though, which bodes well. One thing to note: UConn plays in a significantly worse conference overall and generally gets easier opponents game-to-game which skews this and the previous statistic a bit.
Arkansas vs. UConn: 3-point shooting and defense
Mar 18, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) shoots the ball against Kansas Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson (10) during the first half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
UConn
36.2% offense – 72nd nationally
30.3% defense – 20th nationally
Arkansas
31.3% offense – 316th nationally
30.6% defense – 28th nationally
This is the first one that truly matters. Both teams are stellar at stopping the opposition from hitting 3s, but only one of the two teams is even halfway decent at making them itself. Arkansas gets in trouble when it shoots too many.
Arkansas vs. UConn: Effective field goal percentage
Mar 10, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Makhi Mitchell (15) dunks the ball against the Texas A&M Aggies during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
UConn: .538 percentage – 45th nationally
Arkansas: .514 percentage – 157th nationally
If you’re unfamiliar, here is the math: 2pt FGM + 1.5*3pt FGM) / FGA
If that doesn’t make sense, think of it this way: effective field goal percentage gives greater weight to made 3-pointers. That makes it a more reflective measurement of how good a team is shooting. Long story short, it’s clear Arkansas is best at the rim.
Arkansas vs. UConn: Rebounding
Mar 18, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Makhi Mitchell (15) drives to the basket against Kansas Jayhawks center Ernest Udeh Jr. (left) and guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (15) during the first half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
UConn
Rebounding margin: +9 per game – 3rd nationally
Defensive rebounding: 25.8 per game – 99th nationally
Offensive rebounding: 13.1 per game – 8th nationally
Arkansas
Rebounding margin: +2 per game – 98th nationally
Defensive rebounding: 25.2 per game – 145th nationally
Offensive rebounding: 10.2 per game – 168th nationally
Arkansas had mixed results with elite rebounding teams this year. The Hogs split with Kentucky, which is one of the best in the country on the glass. But it isn’t as though Arkansas is bad there. Keeping UConn from second-chance points is paramount.
Arkansas vs. UConn: Free throws
Mar 4, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Nick Smith Jr (3) shoots a free throw in the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 88-79. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
UConn
Free throw attempts: 18.4 per game – T-146th nationally
Free-throw percentage: 75.8% – 37th nationally
Arkansas
Free throw attempts: 22.4 per game – 21st nationally
Free-throw percentage: 69.6% – 256th nationally
Ricky Council saved Arkansas’ – ahem – bacon in the Round of 32 with three late free throws. No Hogs fan wants them to be in that position again, though, becaue Arkansas was dreadful from the stripe this season. That said, if Council or Nick Smith Jr. are the ones shooting, things should be OK.
