Arkansas Derby win could propel Timberlake, Brad Cox to top billing for Kentucky Derby
HOT SPRINGS, Ark. — “Kentucky Derby favorite” may not show up on many birthday wish lists, but Louisville trainer Brad Cox could receive it as a present Saturday when he turns 44.
The Cox-trained Timberlake is the 9-5 second choice in the morning line for the $1.5 million, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
With two weekends of major prep races remaining ahead of the May 4 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, no clear favorite has emerged. Timberlake — with more than $1 million in career earnings and two graded-stakes victories — would enter the mix with a victory Saturday.
“I think it’s wide open, but I do think it’s a talented group of horses,” said Elliott Walden, CEO of Timberlake co-owner WinStar Farm. “You might not have the spectacular horse at this point, but there are some horses starting to rise to the top. … (Timberlake) has to move forward to win Saturday. He has some good competition, so he’ll have to step up.”
Timberlake drew the No. 2 post in a field of 10 for the Arkansas Derby (post time 7:47 p.m. EDT). The race will offer 200 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, including 100 to the winner and 50 to the runner-up.
Ranking fifth on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 66, Timberlake likely has enough points already to qualify for the Run for the Roses.
“We want to win; Arkansas Derby stands on its own,” Walden said. “To win a Grade 1 at 3, you never know what’s going to happen in the Kentucky Derby. We want him to show up Saturday and run well. We’re not going to give him one or anything like that. He’s out there trying to win.”
Timberlake was a $350,000 purchase at Keeneland’s 2022 September Yearling Sale and immediately showed promise when hitting the track as a 2-year-old.
“He’s unbelievable physically,” Cox said. “He’s a very, very good-looking horse, and he’s always been good. He stamped himself the first time he breezed at Keeneland in the spring (of 2023) that he’s a good colt.”
Timberlake broke his maiden in his second race at Ellis Park in July — “We were shocked he got beat the first time,” Walden said — and immediately joined stakes company, finishing second in September’s Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga. He followed with a win in the Grade 1 Champagne in October at Aqueduct and then closed his 2-year-old campaign with a fourth-place showing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Cox said he was concerned whether Timberlake was ready for his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Rebel on Feb. 24 at Oaklawn, but he cruised to a 2-length victory as the 4-5 favorite.
“I didn’t feel like we had the screws really tight on him leading up to the Rebel,” Cox said. “He stepped up and showed he’s a good colt and could handle the two turns and the mile-and-a-sixteenth and we’re hoping a mile-and-an-eighth and even a mile-and-a-quarter.”
Cox said Timberlake has improved mentally and physically since the Rebel victory.
“He’s learning, he’s mellowed out and his works have gotten better in regards to settling the first part,” Cox said.
As for Timberlake’s name, Walden said it stood out when scrolling through the Jockey Club’s list of approved names.
Of course, there’s the connection to musician and actor Justin Timberlake, though there’s been no communication with him so far.
“We thought it could be a nice parallel,” Walden said. “We didn’t specifically name him after him, but we know who he is and thought it would be a cool tie-in. Hasn’t been any communication, but let’s get through this one and there might be at the (Kentucky) Derby.”
Arkansas Derby odds, full lineup, jockeys and post time
Post time: 7:47 p.m. EDT Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Purse: $1.5 million. Grade: 1. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. Jockey weight: 121-124 pounds. TV: FoxSports2/FanDuel TV. Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 100 for first place, 50 for second place, 25 for third place, 15 for fourth place, 10 for fifth place.
PP Horse, jockey, trainer, odds
1. Will Take It, Francisco Arrieta, Eddie Milligan Jr., 50-1
2. Timberlake, Flavien Prat, Brad Cox, 9-5
3. Dimatic, Cristian Torres, Steve Asmussen, 20-1
4. Time for Truth, Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett, 20-1
5. Liberal Arts, Tyler Gaffalione, Robert Medina, 15-1
6. Informed Patriot, Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen, 30-1
7. Muth, Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert, 8-5
8. Just Steel, Keith Asmussen, D. Wayne Lukas, 15-1
9. Mystik Dan, Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek, 5-2
10. Imperial Gun, Emmanuel Equivel, Steve Asmussen, 30-1
More horse racing: A look at Saturday's Kentucky Derby preps, including the Florida Derby and UAE Derby
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Arkansas Derby win could propel Timberlake to top for Kentucky Derby
