Arizona State football sets sights on No. 6 Oregon after win over UCLA
The Arizona State Sun Devils are coming off their most impressive win of the season, beating UCLA 17-7 at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. Now they turn their attention to an even more formidable foe — No. 6 Oregon, which is in the hunt for a Pac-12 title as well as a CFP berth.
It is a foe with whom ASU coach Kenny Dillingham is quite familiar, having served as offensive coordinator there last season. But Dillingham isn't focusing on which team is on the other sideline.
“I’m focused on our players. Putting together the best plan for them to go versus Oregon’s football team. They have a really really really good football team. Arguably the best football team we face this year. Their defensive line reminds me of Georgia's, just in terms of the physicality and toughness of where we played them last year," he said. "Their offensive line is big. They’ve got what I believe is tied for the best quarterback in the country with Jordan Travis (of Florida State). I’ve coached them both so I have a bias for both of them, so that dynamic of having a really stout D-line, a stout O-line with an elite quarterback and elite skill at the wide receiver position is a very scary dynamic.”
Let's take a closer look at the matchup:
Oregon (9-1, 7-1) at Arizona State (3-7, 2-5)
Time/site: Saturday, 2 p.m., Mountain America Stadium.
TV: FOX (Play-By-Play: Jeff Levering, Analyst: Mark Helfrich). Radio: ESPN 620 AM.
Last time they played: It's been a few years. The last meeting was in 2019 in Tempe and it was won by the Sun Devils 31-28. It was a memorable one because the Ducks entered ranked No. 6 and looking for a berth in the CFP. Sound familiar? That was the game QB Jayden Daniels delivered a signature performance in his three years at ASU, outdueling first-round NFL draftee Justin Herbert.
Series history: Oregon leads the series 20-18 but ASU has been competitive. The last three games between the two have been decided by a total of seven points. Oregon's last win in Tempe came back in 2015, 61-55.
Coaching matchup
ASU: Kenny Dillingham (first year). At 33, Dillingham is the youngest head coach at an FBS school. He served as offensive coordinator at Oregon last season. His first win as head coach came in ASU's season opener against Southern Utah, 24-21, with his first Pac-12 win coming against Washington State on Oct. 28. He is a local product out of Chaparral.
Oregon: Dan Lanning (second year). This is Lanning's first head coaching job. He came to Eugene in 2022 and directed the Ducks to a 10-3 showing in his inaugural campaign. He previously worked three years at Georgia, the last two of those as defensive coordinator. Lanning, 37, was a linebacker in his college playing career at William Jewell College in Missouri (2004-2007).
Storyline
This is a much-anticipated game, not just because Oregon is ranked No. 6 and it was a classic game the last time the Ducks came to Tempe, but because of Dillingham's past association with Oregon and its coach Dan Lanning.
The two not only coached on the same staff last season but were also together at Memphis in 2016-2017 under Mike Norvell. Lanning was also a graduate assistant at ASU in 2012 and on staff as a recruiting coordinator in 2013 when Dillingham was a student there.
They are the two youngest head coaches in the Pac-12 with Dillingham the youngest in all FBS and Lanning the fifth-youngest.
Another cross-team connection is the former ASU linebacker Connor Soelle now plays for Oregon after three years in Sun Devils colors. The Saguaro High product has played in 10 games as a reserve, with 10 tackles and two quarterback hurries.
Yet another connection comes in former ASU offensive line coach Mike Cavanaugh who is on staff at Oregon as an offensive analyst.
Arizona State will win if . . .
1. It can contain Oregon QB Bo Nix: This is just the latest in line of good quarterbacks ASU has faced and they have done a good job against them. Most notably the Sun Devils held Washington's Michael Penix to 275 yards (is averaging 353) and intercepted him twice. They also held Colorado's Shedeur Sanders to 239, well under his 3144 average. Washington State's Cam Ward and USC's Caleb Williams were right around their average but certainly didn't have the impact they have had against other opponents. This might be the toughest challenge because of all the other weapons Oregon has around Nix.
2. It has success with ball control offense: The two best games ASU has played this season came in the 15-7 road loss to Washington and the recent 17-7 win at UCLA. There was a common thread there, other than it just being a low-scoring game. ASU just isn't equipped to win an offensive shootout so this is a formula on which it has relied — a deliberate, ball control offense that runs the clock and keeps the ball away from the opposing offense. It had a time of possession against UCLA of 36:54 to 23:06. Against Washington it won that category 37:29 to 22:31. Part of that equation is third down conversions and that's an area in which the Sun Devils have sometimes struggled. They're averaging 32.7%, 114th out of 130 FBS programs.
3. It can tackle: This is an area in which ASU has actually fared well. They don't miss a lot of tackles. Well, Oregon boasts a runner in Bucky Irving who boasts 939 yards and 10 touchdowns on 138 tries (6.8 ypc) He can rarely be brought down by one defender and he gets a lot of yards after first contact so the ASU defense, which redeemed itself with its showing Saturday against UCLA, will be tested.
Oregon will win if . . .
It can avoid a letdown: This game follows one against USC and precedes next week's big rivalry game against Oregon State so it would be natural for the Ducks to have a bit of a letdown. At the same time, all know they can't afford a mishap if they want to play for a Pac-12 title and a CFP berth, both of which are firmly in their grasp.
The offense comes close to its normal output: Oregon ranks first in the country in scoring offense (46.3 ppg), second to only LSU in total offense (540 ypg) and second in passing offense (338.7 ypg), numbers ASU is not in the same stratosphere with. ASU is 125th of 130 teams in scoring (17.7 ppg) so as long as they hang on to the ball and don't completely falter, the Ducks should be OK.
Hold up in the trenches, particularly on offense: When the ASU defense has been very good it has been able to get pressure on the passer., perhaps the biggest improvement from last year to this year. But the ASU defensive line has taken some hits with injuries and Oregon has allowed just four sacks all season and it has a unit that has had the benefit of the same starters for every game.
Personnel notes
Oregon: RB Noah Whittington, WR Justius Lowe, DB Daylen Austin, S Bryan Addison and K Andrew Boyle are out. CB Khyree Jackson and CB Jahlil Florence are questionable.
Arizona State: Players definitely out — OL Emmit Bohle, OL Ben Coleman, OL Bram Walden, OL Sione Finau, OL Kyle Scott, QB Jaden Rashada, QB Drew Pyne, DB Montana Warren, DL Michael Matus, DL Prince Dorbah and WR Xavier Guillory. Players listed as questionable include RB DeCarlos Brooks, DL Anthonie Cooper and OL Max Iheanachor. Rashada returned to full practice this week for the first time since leaving with an injury the second game of the season but Dillingham said he would only be available on an "emergency" basis.
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They said it
"Just the locker room after the game, who's celebrating with who. That's always who I look at, is it one friend group celebrating with each other? Is it one position group celebrating with each other or is everybody kind of co-mingling? The best teams I've been a part of, it was co-mingling. And I could see the co-mingling of different position groups, different friends. I know which pods of people are friends with each other. When those pods are kind of crossing over to celebrate, that's really what you're looking for and I could feel that. I've always felt our team believed in what we're doing, even though I'm a little crazy, they know it, goofy, they know it. But I do believe they believe in the process and where we're going and what we're going to be. And I think this was a little bit of a validation, but, like I told them all along, the validation is not on Saturday. The validation is in, you see yourself getting better, you see our team getting better, you see our team growing together throughout the week."- ASU coach Kenny Dillingham on how the team's growth and culture manifested itself after last win
By the numbers
4 — Oregon leads the nation in both fewest turnovers and fewest sacks allowed this season, with only four of each. The turnover tally is also three fewer than any other team in the Pac-12.
91 — Yards needed for Oregon junior Troy Franklin to break the school's single-season receiving record of 1,184 yards of Dillon Mitchell (2018). Franklin currently has 1,093.
100 — Oregon has held its opponent to less than 100 rushing yards seven times in 10 games, ranking 11th in rush defense (94.70 ypg).
118 — Games missed by a total of 30 ASU players who have been injured. The biggest hit has been on offense with 18 players missing 89 of those games and nine offensive linemen accounting for 49 games missed. Twelve players have missed five or more games.
Who will win and why
Oregon 38, Arizona State 21: Oregon slipped up here in 2019 when it came in with national championship aspirations and it's hard to see it doing so again, especially with Arizona State in rebuild mode under a new coach and hit by a myriad of injuries. Despite the obstacles, ASU has managed to stay in games you wouldn't expect them to be in, mainly because of the defense, so they could do that at home but it's hard to see them pulling off what would be a monumental upset.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: ASU-Oregon Pac-12 football game preview, prediction
