Arizona HS boys basketball: Who's the most dangerous team in the state?

The Arizona Interscholastic Association will announce its seeds for the 32-team boys basketball state tournament on Saturday morning. It will be much more wide open than the first year of the Open last season, when Perry was the clear favorite and followed through with the title.

Perry wrapped up its regular season on Wednesday with its third consecutive win. It sits at No. 1 in the AIA's current seedings for the Open. It seems that the Pumas will hold this spot, but the seeds after are up in the air.

It seems likely Goodyear Millennium will jump from its current No. 9 position and into the top five, after having a relative easy time putting away No. 5 Desert Mountain 65-52 on Thursday night behind Kingston Tosi's 35 points, 11 rebounds and five blocked shots.

Millennium is the only school not to lose to an Arizona team this season. It has beaten No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Sunnyslope, No. 5 Desert Mountain and No. 8 Brophy Prep.

"Let's see how beating Desert Mountain moves us up," said Millennium coach Ty Amundsen, who saw his team gain only two spots from 11, after beating then-No. 1 Notre Dame last week.

Let's break down what to expect as we look at teams that have made moves in the last week of the regular season:

Who is the most dangerous team?

The most dangerous squad is without a doubt Millennium, the 5A team that has mostly dominated its instate competition.

Amundsen sports potentially the best and deepest team he has had in his time at Millennium. They lost in the second round of the Open tournament last year, so by the time they reached the 5A final, they seemed to run out of juice. Kingston Tosi has been playing extremely well, and it's opening up the court for his teammates, from Cameron Holmes and Sabien Cain to Quincy Everson. Millennium also has a few bench players who could start for most teams. Taking on Notre Dame, Canyon View and Desert Mountain in the last two weeks of the season sets these guys up for the Open, so they're already battle-tested for whichever teams they're matched against.

Can Perry make it 3 titles in a row?

Perry junior Koa Peat, a 6-foot-8 phenom, who is among the top five prospects in the nation in the 2025 class, has been sensational again. He's never lost a state championship game in his high school career. Last year, however, he had 6'8" Cody Williams, who is now at Colorado and is a projected NBA draft lottery pick.

D'Andre Harrison (6'5") having a good season has helped. But the Pumas are more vulnerable without Williams complementing the reigning Arizona Player of the Year. But if Barron Silsby shoots well , and the team plays their roles and gets tough on defense, the Pumas could very will run the table again. Coach Sam Duane Jr. is the X factor in all of this. He leaves no stone unturned and will have these guys ready. He purposely had his last game moved to Wednesday this week to allow for only one week for his guys to stay sharp to get ready for the Open, which starts on Valentine's Day.

Good news for VC, bad news for rest of 3A

Chandler Valley Christian, the No. 1 team in 3A, won't have to forfeit any games and star senior player Luke Shaw will remain eligible for state, which starts Feb. 17 for the Trojans. The 3A Conference is the only level other than the Open that doesn't have a play-in, and starts with a 24-team field due to the reservation schools that draw the biggest crowds.

The reservation crowd noise might be the biggest obstacle in Valley Christian's way of capturing a third straight 3A title, something the school has never done under coach Greg Haagma. If it happens, a Shaw will be in the middle of all three titles. A group tried to take Valley Christian and Shaw down for his involvement in playing games in Milan, Italy in late December as part of a tryout opportunity for Italy's U-19 national team. Shaw was able to prove that it was for a tryout, and nothing more, with a letter from the Italian national basketball federation sent to AIA Executive Director David Hines, who also spoke to the person in charge of the national federation. This is not an AIA violation, because it comes under the exception to the rule bylaw that an athlete can play in another event during the AIA season if he or she is competing for a national developmental spot on a team.

Shaw has been out much of the second half of the season due to a foot injury, but will be ready to start the state tournament. His brother Caleb led Valley Christian to the 2021-22 3A championship, when he made The Republic's All-Arizona team. Caleb Shaw is now spending this season as a redshirt at Grand Canyon, where his dad Casey is an assistant coach. To show how good this Valley Christian team is, the Trojans (25-2), who have won 12 in a row, blew out the next-best team in 3A, Gilbert Christian, by 22 points recently without Luke Shaw. With the Grier twins — Carson and Kyle — and guard Austin Wallace, nobody in 3A can beat VC, even without Shaw. With Shaw now back, the Trojans could win every playoff game by at least 30 points.

No bubble burst for Thatcher

Thatcher was sitting on the 24-team 3A tournament bubble the last three games. The Eagles won each of those games, and are now at 22. They are waiting for the seeds to come out after the North Region's tournament concludes Saturday night. They beat Alchesay, Coolidge and Pusch Ridge.

"Those three wins will get us in the playoffs and we will see where we land," Thatcher coach Kyle Hull said.

Senior Christian Carter put the Eagles on his back. He had 36 points, 10 steals and four assists in the 71-57 win over Alchesay; 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists and three blocks in the 38-29 win over Coolidge; and 28 points, three assists and four steals in the 57-55 win over Pusch Ridge.

"Our team is young and is learning but they have a will to fight and get better every game," Hull said. "They have learned that they are never out of a game if they play good defense.  They have no quit in them."

Can ALA Gilbert North make a run in the Open?

For the second straight year, junior point guard Dylan Novak has led American Leadership Gilbert North to an 18-0 AIA power-points record. He was his region's Player of the Year again. ALA Gilbert North is at No. 11 in the Open seeds. Last year, the 4A Eagles were even higher, but got knocked out early. With Novak's experience and the emergence of 6'6" junior Connor Morris and 6'7" senior Owen Bell, this team seems more equipped to win a couple of Open tournament games.

Great records, but playoff ready?

Cesar Chavez (24-2), Tucson (23-1) and Mesa (22-5) are the only 6A teams with at least 20 wins. But which of these teams can make noise at state? All of them are double-digit seeds in the Open. Mesa is the lowest of the three at No. 25. But the Jackrabbits just had their biggest win of the season, beating Desert Mountain 68-64 for their 10th straight win. Coach Scott Stansberry took the lead from now-Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar and has not let the Mesa slip. Seniors A.J. Seumanu, Daniel Arnett, Conway Cummard and McKy Peters have been strong leaders. Junior John Peterson has come on strong the second half of the season.

"Our whole thing is taking pride in getting better as the season goes on, and that's what we have done," Stansberry said. "Defensively, we are putting our hard hats on and accepting the challenge. And, offensively, we do it by committee. You never know who is going to have a big game."

To suggest human-interest story ideas and other news, reach Obert at richard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-316-8827. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter:@azc_obert

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What we know as Arizona HS boys basketball moves toward playoffs