Arace: Favorites don't often win at the Belmont Stakes, so toss out the best horse
The Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and Saturday, in the 155th running, the ghost of Secretariat will be rumbling down the stretch. It has been 50 years since “Big Red” took one last look at Sham and then freight-trained his way into legend.
Jockey Ron Turcotte didn’t have to ask for anything from the colt. Secretariat just gave. He won by 31 lengths – 1/16th of a mile. His record of 2 minutes, 24 seconds still stands as the fastest mile and a half ever recorded on a dirt track.
As the members of The Dispatch’s horse-racing desk, such as it is, exchanged phone calls and texts this week, that magical summer of 1973 galloped through our collective memory. Two of us – Bob Clancy, former racing editor at the Hartford Courant, and Scott Davis, former racing editor at mother Dispatch – still managed to apply the cold calculations that are the mark of veteran handicappers. As for me . . .
The Dispatch’s horse-racing desk is not all-seeing, but we tend to hit the board. Sometimes, we hit the board big – as Clancy did when he hit with Mage, a 15-1 shot, at this year’s Kentucky Derby.
For the Belmont, we begin with Davis, who, while he is the nicest man in the world, is probably the least emotional handicapper in our group.
“I’m going with Angel Of Empire,” Davis said. “He was good (finished third) in the Derby and pretty sharp in recent workouts. (Trainer) Brad Cox won the Belmont in 2021 with Essential Quality after a near miss in the Derby, and I sense a repeat. I don’t like Forte’s long layoff, National Treasure (the Preakness winner) won’t have it nearly as easy on the front this time and Arcangelo is probably still too green.”
Angel Of Empire, ridden by Flavien Prat, could have won the Derby had Mage not gotten the jump on him at the top of the stretch. At the Belmont, Angel Of Empire is the third favorite at 7-2, behind Forte (5-2) and Tapit Trice (3-1).
By acclaim, this is a five-horse race – Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire, Arcangelo (8-1) and Hit Show (10-1) are the top contenders in The Run for the Carnations. What about National Treasure? He’s a front-runner, and gate-to-wire winners are rare at the Belmont. Toss him.
The Belmont tends to reward stalkers – horses who can run off the lead and have the tactical speed to move around the second turn, into the homestretch. Forte, the 2-year-old champion, has such a style, and he may be the most talented horse in the field. He was the favorite at the Kentucky Derby before he became a late scratch with a hoof injury and he hasn’t raced since.
Keep in mind that favorites have lost 25 of the past 36 Belmonts. Keep in mind that, over the past 17 years, there have been 10 horses that won the Belmont with 6-1 odds or greater. Toss Forte. Look for a better price.
Kentucky Derby runners who have skipped the Preakness have won 10 of the past 20 Belmont Stakes. Angel of Empire, Hit Show and Tapit Trice are such horses. They have big-name trainers (Cox trains both Angel and Hit Show, and Pletcher trains Tapit Trice) who know Triple Crown races. This trio of horses also share the blood of Raise A Native on their sire sides – and 15 of the past 28 Belmont winners had Raise A Native in their sire-side bloodlines.
Breeding is important. The Belmont Stakes runs 1½ miles (12 furlongs), a distance these 3-year-old competitors have never run before and never will again. Belmont Park is a huge track with wide stretches and big, sweeping turns. Horses who have endurance in their bloodlines (and a mistake-free jockeys on their backs) have a shot. Tapit Trice is the son of Tapit, who has produced four Belmont winners. He’s a big, powerful horse with long strides. He seems built for the big turns on the Big Sandy, but will he be close enough to the lead with a quarter mile to go? I don’t know if even Luis Saez can manage that.
Clancy and I both landed on the same horse – Arcangelo. (Last year we also landed on the same horse at the Belmont – Mo Donegal, who won. Just sayin’.)
“Arcangelo has been improving with each race,” Clancy said. “He has been victorious over this track: He won the Peter Pan Stakes (May 13) and he was flying over the last the last eighth of a mile. I understand this is the first time he’ll be running around two turns, and that’s a concern. But I believe you need to be fairly close to the pace in the Belmont, and it looks like he can sit off the pace and get a good jump.”
Clancy will be in the crowd in Saturday. He is going to play a superfecta box with Arcangelo over Forte, Tapit Trice and National Treasure.
Arcangelo’s female trainer, Jena Antonucci, piqued my interest. His jockey is Javier Castellano, who rode Mage to victory in the Derby and who is overdue to win at the Belmont. His family tree shows Raise A Native on his sire side and his mare side, and Tapit, Northern Dancer and Secretariat on his mare side.
I have Arcangelo over Hit Show, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice.
Good luck.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Belmont Stakes is a five-horse race with the ghost of Secretariat
