Analyzing Dennis Allen’s comments and Saints moves at safety ahead of 2022 draft

While the 2022 NFL draft will offer insight into head coach Dennis Allen’s vision for the New Orleans Saints, the quiet free agency signings already tell a story. The Saints were known for a few things under Sean Payton: artfully handling chaos, innovative play calling, and leaning into players’ strengths. What Payton was to the offense is what Dennis Allen has been to the defensive turnaround since the 2015 season. Mainly, a formidable identity – one not accomplished through the flashiest moves. And it’s not a bad philosophy. You can see it unfolding through their low-key acquisitions at safety.

The other side of the coin is the cautionary tale of Jairus Byrd, whose five-year, $54 million contract never came close to living up to its value. It’s not that he only played four games his first season; he was a non-factor in terms of production. To add insult to injury, his contract correlated with the departure of Malcolm Jenkins to Philadelphia, where he played his best football – something that feels timely given his retirement this offseason. The loss of Jenkins stings from a personnel perspective, but the greatest void is veteran leadership to mentor young players and build team culture. That’s where New Orleans looks to free agency.

“As an overall philosophy I’d rather augment our team through free agency and really build our team through the draft,” Allen said during a media availability session at NFL owners meetings in March. The team’s defense is rooted in young draft prospects, but it’s always been bolstered by a foundation of mid-level free agent signings with a lot of versatility — like linebackers A.J. Klein and Demario Davis. Unexciting as it may seem, Allen’s approach to free agency shows clear intent to not make that mistake twice. Those blueprints can be found in the latest additions to the secondary unit.

Marcus Williams, now a Baltimore Raven, has range that’s nearly irreplaceable. But he wasn’t the best tackler. He rarely offered run support – something that’s lost with Malcolm Jenkins. He wasn’t tasked with blitzing – that’s P.J. Williams and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. With the Williams-Jenkins tandem, New Orleans had defined strong and free starting safeties. Allen noted at the owners meetings interview that he sees value in the converse – two players with interchangeable skill sets.

“In a perfect world scenario, you’d like to have the flexibility that they can both play back and down in the paint,” Allen said. While acknowledging that’s the typically the exception to the rule, it mirrored his comments on Marcus Maye’s signing. Allen touted his veteran presence, flexibility to play strong and free, range, intelligence, and instincts – essentially the versatility he covets.

The timing of the Maye signing coincided with the departure of Marcus Williams; it wasn’t clear he had the range to serve as his replacement in the backend. Then Malcolm Jenkins retired. Maye’s scheme fit and usage became a bit clearer, but didn’t necessarily account for the full loss of range. The next puzzle pieces were in quick succession – the first a crucial re-signing of P.J. Williams. They then acquired former second round pick Justin Evans for a cap hit of less than a million. The low risk, high upside move illustrates the value in Allen’s roster-building approach.

Here’s what should further instill confidence: co-defensive coordinator and secondary coach Kris Richard. His impact was palpable the moment he stepped on the practice field during last year’s training camp. He was active in the backfield, frequent with engaging communication. In one season, he developed rookie Paulson Adebo into a starting corner, elevated Lattimore to elite levels, and made P.J. Williams into a versatile playmaker.

Richard has several chess pieces to now work with. The safety unit as it stands features C.J. Gardner-Johnson, P.J. Williams, Marcus Maye, Justin Evans, and potentially Bradley Roby at slot. Williams, Maye, and Evans are a jack of all trades, master of none trio –with complementary, versatile skills. I’m currently a student with the Scouting Academy, and my first position group was safety. I watched three games of Evans from 2017, and three of Maye’s from last season. Let’s look at their traits and production numbers to see how New Orleans moves forward at the role.

Quick methodology: I calculated player stats based on percentage of snaps played; it’s more indicative of true playmaking when evaluating injured players. I looked at the last three seasons from 2019-2021 – which lines up with P.J. Williams switching to safety – apart from Evans from 2017-18. All numbers pulled from Pro Football Reference

Analysis: When you look at the percentage per snap count, you see trends that fall in line with Allen’s vision of versatility at the position – and a few areas of weakness. Let’s start with ball skills. Maye and P.J. Williams have about as many interceptions as Marcus Williams over the last three seasons. Evans’ productivity per snap shows high upside. The 51 pass deflections are the biggest loss with Williams and Jenkins, but Maye has a higher rate per snap. The Saints lose some productivity of forced fumbles and recoveries, but not so much in sacks – C.J. Gardner-Johnson holds that role down. While the tackling numbers come out relatively even – solo tackling actually improves with Evans and Maye, the tackles for loss and QB hits are the other void not filled. There’s enough sum of parts to account for most production, and the additions seem to mirror the numbers of Jenkins more than Williams.

While having two safeties with interchangeable skill sets is a rare find, so is a true free safety with range. When surveying the playmaking abilities of the current New Orleans safeties, they have a strong safety prototype in Marcus Maye with enough range to roam the backfield. He was a leader in coverage when at free safety and very good at communicating pre-snap to align teammates. He displayed an understanding of angles in space and how to fill passing lanes with the range to come from deep to offer run support. He had good eye discipline tracking the quarterback and the ability to communicate and adjust post-snap. Maye also showed versatility to play strong safety in the box and had an aggressive nature defending against the run. He had good downhill pursuit and tone-setting hits. His tackling technique in space and initial footwork need improvement, but he was quick to process and diagnose run versus pass and has solid range – just not elite speed. Add in his rehab from an Achilles tear last season, and it’s hard to stick him in a single deep alignment as free safety.

Justin Evans displays stronger range on film. He communicates with the backfield pre-snap, has quick diagnosis of run versus passing plays, and makes adjustments based on receiver alignments to cover the slot. Tampa typically employed two deep safeties in the way Allen covets, and Evans has the initial quickness and tracking abilities in coverage and is quick to pursue passing plays to make a play on the ball. He also shows eagerness to defend against the run and comes up in the box with the ability to shed blocks and take good angles to make open field tackles. He was a bit reckless with his tackles in space, and that’s concerning with an injury history that hasn’t seen him play since 2018. Evans has the traits necessary at free safety, but they’re raw and his durability is a concern.

Here’s the good news: those are all teachable traits Kris Richard is more than capable of cultivating. Paulson Adebo had an issue with his footwork and technique out of Stanford; he worked with a trainer while not playing in 2020, but Richard elevated him at an impressive rate. P.J. Williams had three of his five interceptions from since 2019 last season, five of 11 passes defended, two of three sacks, four of five QB hits and his sole forced fumble – all under Richard. In terms of scheme, there’s a few remaining questions. There isn’t really a true free safety past Evans; he certainly shouldn’t be counted on as a starter with only 24 career games played. There’s a lot of traits reminiscent of Jenkins in Maye especially. P.J. Williams has shown he can hold his own and has versatility for multiple roles. But putting him in a two deep alignment with Maye doesn’t seem to play to his strengths. It’s not a bad collective group, but it’s missing a counterpart to Maye – and accordingly is still a position of need.

That’s where the Saints tend to look to the draft; accordant to their philosophy, it’s fair to say safety is a position to watch. That philosophy of building through the draft also encompasses prototype and scheme fit. If we’re listening to Allen, his desire for two versatile safeties with similar skill sets isn’t perfectly satisfied. It points to two realistic prospects in the early rounds: Baylor’s Jalen Pitre, and Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker. Assuming Maye is the replacement for Jenkins, here’s how those numbers stack up with their college production over the last three seasons.

Quick Methodology: Same three-season analysis applied above to draft prospects, with numbers pulled from Penn State and Baylor’s player statistics.

Analysis: I haven’t had time to pour over much college tape, so I won’t make projections that are trait-based. What I can see from a number’s perspective are complimentary skill sets to Marcus Maye. Looking into the two prospects, and their snap counts per position over the last three seasons, one fits slightly better. If New Orleans was in need of a slot corner, look no further than Pitre: twitch and short area quickness – including top-10 three cone drill and short shuttle numbers among all Combine participants. He’s a bit undersized at 6-foot-even and 197 pounds but has good lateral agility and tackling due to aggressiveness. If this was looking for a counterpart to Gardner-Johnson, his sack production and athletic traits like his motor would be a near-perfect fit. His 16 snaps since 2019 at free safety and 975 at slot corner put him slightly out of place across Maye. Not enough experience at free safety and doubling down on a position Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams have handled.

On the other hand, you have Brisker, who played 690 snaps in the box and 668 at free safety over the last three seasons. He doesn’t have the forced fumble and tackles for loss numbers Pitre has, but he certainly can deflect passes, make interceptions, and hit the quarterback when he can. He has better size at 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds and has the versatility to drop deep in coverage and attack at the line of scrimmage and explode towards the run – much more like a box safety with some range. Brisker also has said he’s mainly had talks with two teams – Buffalo and New Orleans. He’s emphasized that he’s comfortable moving around the secondary and has been asked by teams whether he can play multiple positions – and both strong and free safety. Sound like the versatility Dennis Allen covets?

If we’re going off of what we’re told, the Saints have a group of serviceable safeties that could be mixed up to compensate for the losses at the role with some creativity. Payton is known for his creative offensive play calling, but Allen is the innovator on defense. It could be done. But they were never going to make a huge splash at safety in free agency – it goes against their cap strategy and would’ve likely been paying to retain Williams. As they chose to let him go, the place to look for the team to build back the role is through the draft. In Dennis Allen’s perfect world, Jaquan Brisker would make a strong case to be Maye’s counterpart in charge of the Saints’ secondary.

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