Alabama football vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction, scouting report

Alabama football aims to score a victory over Mississippi State on the road as the Crimson Tide faces first-year coach Zach Arnett.

The Bulldogs will bring a different style of offense than what Alabama saw the past few seasons under the late Mike Leach. Mississippi State has attempted 122 rushes and 123 passes this season, which is a much more balanced approach than the Air Raid offense Leach ran that was pass-heavy.

No. 11 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC) will face Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2) on Saturday (8 p.m. CT, ESPN) at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.

Here's our scouting report of the Bulldogs, how they stack up with the Crimson Tide, and a score prediction for the game.

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Players to know

On offense, Will Rogers returns again to serve as quarterback for the Bulldogs. This matchup will mark his fourth game against the Crimson Tide. He has yet to throw a touchdown against Alabama, but he has tossed five interceptions over the previous three matchups. This season, Rogers has completed 74 of 122 passes (60.7%) for 979 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. Outside of the passing game, Mississippi State has shown to be a threat on the ground with Jo'Quavious Marks. He's second in the SEC with 352 rushing yards. He has four rushing touchdowns as well. At receiver Lideatrick Griffin is the top threat, having caught 20 passes for 388 yards and three touchdowns this season.

On defense, Jett Johnson is the name to watch at linebacker. He leads the SEC with 45 tackles and has also tallied three sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. Nathaniel Watson is also off to a strong start with 36 tackles, which is ranked fourth in the SEC. He also has three sacks to go with an interception and a forced fumble.

History of Alabama football vs. Mississippi State

The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have faced off 107 times prior to Saturday. Alabama is on a 15-game winning streak in the matchup. Nick Saban owns a 20-1 record against Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide has also dominated this matchup on the road with a 21-4 record in Starkville.

The game marks the first time in the history of the two teams playing that it will be held in September. The matchup started in 1896. Alabama holds an 87-17-3 record all time against Mississippi State.

How Alabama-Mississippi State stack up on offense

3rd down conversion percentage:

Alabama: 47.3% (32nd nationally)

Mississippi State: 32.7% (119th)

Passing offense:

Alabama: 203.2 yards per game (101st)

Mississippi State: 245.8 yards per game (58th)

Red zone offense:

Alabama: 92.3% (tied for 21st)

Mississippi State: 80% (tied for 84th)

Fewest sacks allowed:

Alabama: 4 per game (124th)

Mississippi State: 2.5 per game (t-91st)

Scoring offense:

Alabama: 30.2 points per game (60th)

Mississippi State: 30.8 points per game (56th)

How Alabama-Mississippi State stack up on defense

Third-down defense:

Alabama: 32.3% (t-29th)

Mississippi State: 40.4% (t-78th)

Pass yards allowed:

Alabama: 203.5 per game (46th)

Mississippi State: 280 per game (120th)

Red zone defense:

Alabama: 70% (t-19th)

Mississippi State: 92.9% (t-107th)

Rushing defense:

Alabama: 102.5 yards per game (t-28th)

Mississippi State: 120.2 yards per game (50th)

Sacks:

Alabama: 3.25 per game (t-18th)

Mississippi State: 2.5 per game (t-42nd)

Scoring defense:

Alabama: 13.5 points per game (t-17th)

Mississippi State: 27.5 points per game (t-87th)

Score prediction

Alabama 34, Mississippi State 13: Alabama builds off the second half it had against the Rebels offensively and defensively. Jalen Milroe takes advantage of the Bulldogs' issues in the passing game, and the defense limits Mississippi State's scoring opportunities to notch a road SEC victory.

What channel is Alabama vs. Mississippi State on?

The game will be on ESPN and can be streamed on Fubo. (Click here for a free trial)

Nick Kelly covers Alabama football and men's basketball for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him @_NickKelly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

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This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction, scouting report