Will Alabama football return to College Football Playoff in 2023? Our game-by-game predictions

Nick Saban seldom gets to play the underdog card.

Alabama football enters most games, and seasons frankly, favored to win it all. But this season? The Crimson Tide enters No. 4 in the AP poll and No. 3 in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. Alabama isn't the popular pick to win it all, which Saban probably doesn't mind.

But winning a national championship is in the realm of possibility, even with the question marks on the roster. So much attention has been focused on the quarterback competition between Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson, Tyler Buchner and Dylan Lonergan that how good this defense could be has been overlooked some.

Then look at the schedule: All of Alabama's toughest games are expected to be at Bryant-Denny Stadium, a place in which Saban seldom loses. Plus, the toughest road games might end up being against two teams that finished 5-7 a season ago, Texas A&M and Auburn. There's a legitimate possibility if the offense can work out its issues that the Crimson Tide goes undefeated in the regular season.

Here's our game-by-game prediction for the 2023 season.

Sept. 2: vs. Middle Tennessee

Last season: Did not play. Middle Tennessee went 8-5.

The buzz: Sure, the Blue Raiders had a nice win over Miami this past season when Kevin Steele was defensive coordinator of the Hurricanes. And yes, it's the first game for a roster that will look quite different from a season ago. Still, Alabama wins this one and wins comfortably.

The pick: Alabama wins, 49-10

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Sept. 9: vs. Texas

Last season: Alabama won 20-19. Texas went 8-5.

The buzz: Steve Sarkisian's return to Bryant-Denny Stadium is expected to be one of the most compelling matchups of the season. Texas seems to be on the rise, but can the Longhorns beat the Crimson Tide at home? It's one thing to play Alabama close on the road, but Bryant-Denny Stadium is a different story. That gives the Crimson Tide a slight edge in what should be a good game.

The pick: Alabama wins, 23-17

Sept. 16: at South Florida

Last season: Did not play. South Florida went 1-11.

The buzz: The Bulls brought aboard former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh who orchestrated the offense that beat Alabama a season ago. But he's working with a much different group of players in Tampa. Perhaps South Florida takes a step forward this season, but it still will be a long ways away from being able to beat Alabama.

The pick: Alabama wins, 45-10

Sept. 23: vs. Ole Miss

Last season: Alabama won 30-24. Ole Miss went 8-5.

The buzz: Rebels running back Quinshon Judkins will keep the Crimson Tide's hands full, but defense should be a strength for Alabama this season. The most compelling matchup should be between the Alabama offense and former defensive coordinator Pete Golding who left the Crimson Tide and joined the Rebels this offseason. Ole Miss has the ability to make for an interesting game with Alabama, but Kiffin and Golding have to wait another year to have a shot at beating their former boss.

The pick: Alabama wins, 38-20

Sept. 30: at Mississippi State

Last season: Alabama won 30-6. Mississippi State went 9-4.

The buzz: What the Bulldogs look like in this new era with new coach Zach Arnett remains to be seen after three seasons under Mike Leach, who died in December. Even with quarterback Will Rogers back, the Bulldogs figure to have some growing pains, and those will likely still pop up in late September against the Crimson Tide.

The pick: Alabama wins, 42-13

Oct. 7: at Texas A&M

Last season: Alabama won 24-20. Texas A&M went 5-7.

The buzz: This marks the Crimson Tide's first return trip to College Station since the Aggies upset them in 2021. Alabama should enter as the favorite, but it can't overlook this matchup by any stretch. Nonetheless, the Crimson Tide avoids the same mistake from two years ago and improves to 6-0.

The pick: Alabama wins 30-20

Oct. 14: vs. Arkansas

Last season: Alabama won 49-26. Arkansas went 7-6.

The buzz: KJ Jefferson will have to be a focal point for the Crimson Tide defense considering he should be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC this season. The Razorbacks defense also has a chance to be improved. Still, Arkansas won't be able to stick with Alabama for four quarters.

The pick: Alabama wins, 45-21

Oct. 21: vs. Tennessee

Last season: Tennessee won 52-49. Tennessee went 11-2.

The buzz: A season ago, the Vols finally snapped Alabama's streak and beat Saban for the first time since he joined the Crimson Tide. That was in Neyland Stadium, though, and Alabama almost won anyway. At Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Vols should be competitive, but the Crimson Tide gets the edge.

The pick: Alabama wins, 35-27

Nov. 4: vs. LSU

Last season: LSU won 32-31 (OT). LSU went 10-4.

The buzz: Here's another loss from 2022 that Alabama has a chance to avenge. The Tigers are expected to be the Crimson Tide's top competitor for the SEC West crown, and this game could very well decide that winner. LSU has talent all over the roster from Harold Perkins to Jayden Daniels. Still, Alabama wins what turns out to be an absolute battle.

The pick: Alabama wins, 24-17

Nov. 11: at Kentucky

Last season: Did not play. Kentucky went 7-6.

The buzz: The Kentucky offensive line gave up the most sacks of any group in the SEC in 2022. Protecting transfer quarterback Devin Leary will be key. If the Wildcats can do that, they might have a chance against the Crimson Tide. If not, it could be a long day with edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell chasing the quarterback.

The pick: Alabama wins, 35-17

Nov. 18: vs. Chattanooga

Last season: Did not play. Chattanooga went 7-4.

The buzz: In the last home game of the season, Alabama gets a chance to polish things up for the stretch run and walk away healthy.

The pick: Alabama wins, 45-0

Nov. 25: at Auburn

Last season: Alabama won 49-27. Auburn went 5-7.

The buzz: Hugh Freeze has found ways to beat Saban before when he was coaching at Ole Miss. Freeze might do so again at Auburn, but it's not likely this is the year. The Tigers will almost certainly be better than a season ago, but it might not be ready to beat Alabama. Though, playing the Crimson Tide in Auburn will help.

The pick: Alabama wins, 23-13

Dec. 2: SEC Championship Game vs. Georgia

Last season: Did not play. Georgia went 15-0.

The buzz: If Alabama wins all its games in the regular season as predicted above, it's going to be playing in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia remains the most likely opponent to emerge from the SEC East. Alabama is the only team to have beaten the Bulldogs in either of the past two seasons (in the 2021 SEC Championship Game), but Georgia wins this one and wins the conference again. But ... don't be surprised if Alabama then makes the College Football Playoff and pulls a Georgia a la 2021: Losing the SEC title game but win a national championship. A loss in the conference championship game could be the exact reset and refresher the Crimson Tide needs after an undefeated regular season.

The pick: Georgia wins, 24-20.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football game-by-game predictions 2023: How Tide will fare