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AFC playoff picture: Where Patriots stand for Week 18

henry mckenna
·3 min read
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The New England Patriots clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2019, and avoided missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in Bill Belichick’s stint as the coach in New England.

The Patriots are hardly settled in place with the standings. They have an outside chance at the No. 1 seed — that would require a hilariously unlikely sequence of losses from the teams above them. What is more likely is that they land in the wild-card round with a matchup against one of the many other AFC teams looking for solid seeding heading into the postseason.

Here’s a look at the layout of the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC Standings

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Tennessee Titans (11-5)

  2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

  3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

  4. Buffalo Bills (10-6)

  5. New England Patriots (10-6)

  6. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

  7. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

In the hunt: Las Vegas Raiders (7-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1), Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

Our take: The AFC did not look formidable earlier this season, with a messy jockeying of seemingly mediocre teams. But now, it feels like all of them are peaking at the right time, with the Bengals looking absolutely dangerous and the Chiefs refinding their form. The Titans are expected to get their best players back from injury in the coming weeks. And the Colts and Bills just won in head-to-head matchups with the Patriots. Every one of these games would be a tough matchup for New England.

Here are the AFC's playoff matchups if the season ended today

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

Bye: Titans

Chargers (7) @ Chiefs (2)

Colts (6) @ Bengals (3)

Patriots (5) @ Bills (4)

Our take: Simply, this would be a fantastic slate of football games. Each one is as good as the next. The Patriots and Bills would get Round 3. Considering it will be in Buffalo, the Patriots will face an uphill battle on the road. Could they do it? Absolutely. But it would take a terrific game from their defense — and a surprisingly lackluster game from Josh Allen.

AFC East Standings

(AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

  1. Bills (10-6)

  2. Patriots (10-6)

  3. Dolphins (8-8)

  4. New York Jets (4-12)

Our take: The Patriots can only pull into the No. 1 spot in the AFC East if…

  • New England wins and Buffalo loses or ties

  • OR New England ties and Buffalo loses.

That means the Patriots will be rooting for the Jets, the Bills’ upcoming opponent, who showed a surprising level of peskiness in Week 17 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Patriots, meanwhile, will have to take care of a really solid Miami team, which fell out of playoff contention last week.

Analysis on the Patriots’ playoff picture

Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

The outlook isn’t much brighter for the Patriots, even after a 50-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. New England clinched a playoff berth, which is something to celebrate, considering the uncertainty it faced after watching Tom Brady depart in 2019. But it’s unclear whether this Patriots team can make a run. They are good at beating bad teams — and struggle to beat the best teams. New England has losses to the Buccaneers, the Cowboys, the Bills and the Colts. Those are all contenders.

The fact that the Patriots’ best wins came against the Chargers and an injury-riddled Titans does not speak well for their playoff chances. Mac Jones may get his playoff debut, but he may not get his first win.

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