The Action Network: Best bets for 2023 Daytona 500
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For the first time ever, I am attending the Daytona 500!
I’m dating myself here, but I have attended a NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona International Speedway — the Pepsi 400 way back in 2002.
Daytona 500 odds have been widely available for several months, so I have a handful of NASCAR picks that I’ve already made. However, I’ll be away from my computer for a chunk of the weekend while traveling to the race.
As a result, I decided to tap a handful of fellow NASCAR bettors to provide their top Daytona 500 picks for Sunday’s race (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM) to make sure I’m not missing out on any of the top value bets for the “Great American Race.”
So with a little help from my friends, I’ve detailed the latest Daytona 500 odds and NASCAR picks with value heading into this afternoon’s race.
Daytona 500 Odds, Picks
*Odds as of Sunday morning
RELATED: BetMGM updated race-day odds
PJ Walsh: Aric Almirola to Win (+3300 at BetMGM)
Christi Walsh is already on my favorite bet for the Daytona 500, which she details below, so I am highlighting my second-favorite wager instead to avoid repetition.
The Action Network’s Nick Giffen and I have been all over Almirola since odds opened through Thursday night’s Duel races, so this pick may seem a bit redundant. But for those now starting or finishing up their Daytona 500 betting cards, there’s still plenty of value in this number.
Almirola has a knack for superspeedway racing, including wins at Daytona and Talladega in the Cup and Xfinity Series.
In addition, Almirola finished fifth in this race one year ago, which is significant since it was also run in NASCAR’s Next Gen car.
But what makes me most bullish on Almirola is how his car performed en route to a victory in Thursday night’s second Duel race.
At the very low-risk, high-upside price of 33-1, we’re getting an experienced and successful superspeedway racer who appears to have one of the best cars for today’s Daytona 500.
Nick Giffen: Top Toyota — Christopher Bell (+550 at bet365)
Seven Toyota drivers are entered in this year’s Daytona 500. Two of those drivers are rookies making their Daytona 500 debuts.
If every Toyota had equal odds, they’d all be listed at +600, but Bell rates higher than both Travis Pastrana and Ty Gibbs.
My model also rates him better than Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick. That makes sense given Reddick’s performance in his Duel race, and Truex’s lack of solid superspeedway results over a large sample size.
Bell nearly won his Duel qualifying race over Joey Logano, even without getting much help from his Toyota teammates.
I have Bell’s fair odds at about +475, so +550 at bet365 is one of the better values of any bet still out there per my model. I’d bet this down to +500 and feel good about it.
Stephen Young: Cody Ware Lead Lap Finish (+225 at BetRivers)
It wouldn‘t be Daytona if I didn‘t have a fun bet that I liked a lot.
In 12 career superspeedway races, Ware has three lead-lap finishes. With that said, he‘s been running at the end in 10 of those 12 races.
Half the battle at Daytona is running at the end of the race. If his team can clean up on pit road, Ware should avoid issues while running toward the back. He had a 28.1 average running position on superspeedways last season.
At the end of the day, I like looking for long-shot bets for the 500, and I think this has a good chance of hitting if there are a lot of other issues. There have been at least seven cautions in eight of the last 10 Daytona races.
Christi Walsh: Ryan Blaney to Win (+1200 at FanDuel)
It‘s no secret that I absolutely adore betting Blaney, and across the four Cup Series races run in the Next Gen car last season at Daytona and Talladega, YRB posted the best average finish while leading the most laps.
Additionally, three of Blaney‘s seven career Cup Series wins have come at Talladega and Daytona.
There‘s a valid reason for the price tag, but he‘s worth it.
Jim Sannes: Winning Manufacturer — Ford (+150 at DraftKings)
When I look at outright values in my model, almost all of them (excluding Bell at +3000) are Fords.
So, rather than picking one, let’s just lump them all together and bet Ford at +150. DraftKings still has a “winning manufacturer” bet available at those odds. The implied odds there are 40%, and I’ve got Fords winning 41.9% of the time.
We saw their strength on Thursday, and we’ve seen it consistently at superspeedways in the past. I’m fine betting guys like Kevin Harvick (+2500) and Austin Cindric (+2700) individually if you want longer odds.
However, this is the best way to bet them in my eyes.
