AAC expresses interest in adding the Pac-12 leftover schools — it makes sense
A very interesting story broke on Monday. Eric Prisbell of On3 Sports talked to sources who told him the AAC is interested in adding the Pac-4 schools: Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State.
Prisbell said his sources have “direct knowledge of the league’s strategy.”
No one should think the AAC is likely to land these schools. Then again, it never seemed likely the Pac-12 would die until just a few weeks ago. Things don’t seem likely for many months, and then they happen anyway.
The likelihood or probability of an AAC raid of the Pac-4 is something a lot of people will focus on, and reasonably so. However, even if the AAC doesn’t actually grab these schools, there is still value and importance in the act of merely attempting to bring them aboard. We’re going to take you through that thought process and strategy below, as the realignment wheel keeps spinning and we wait to see where the Pac-4 schools will ultimately land:
DETAILS
One AAC source told Prisbell, “We would be a good landing spot for those schools given our existing ESPN deal, which has a strong linear component, along with our major cities and institutional profiles.”
This is a clear reference to the Pac-12’s failure to land a media rights deal, but more specifically, to not come up with any linear TV component at all. The Pac-12 went all-in on Apple, a digital (streaming) outlet, and did not have ESPN or any other linear TV partner. The AAC can offer that.
NOT A MERGER
Prisbell reports this is not an attempt at a merger between the two sides. The AAC wants to poach and pick off the Pac-4 schools.
SMU
In many ways, the AAC is trying to make the Pac-4 reconsider a merger with the Mountain West. There are several reasons for this. Start with SMU. The Pac-12 had talked with SMU earlier this year, before the Pac-12 splintered and was reduced to the Pac-4. SMU might not view the Pac-4 as being an attractive landing spot, but the AAC definitely does not want to see SMU join a Pac-4 and Mountain West merged conference. This is an attempt to keep SMU in the AAC.
SMU AAC EXIT FEE
SMU’s exit fee is $10 million. That’s not nothing, but it’s a lot less than the $34 million San Diego State and other current Mountain West schools would have to pay if they wanted to leave the MWC. SMU is therefore comparatively more attainable in a potential realignment shuffle.
MOUNTAIN WEST VS AAC
The Mountain West and AAC do not like each other. The AAC has marketed itself as a “Power Six” conference, meaning it is the strongest conference not included in the Power Five. Mountain West fans hate that label and think they are the best Group of Five conference, not the AAC.
Regardless of the fights and debates among fans, what matters is that the AAC and MWC want to position themselves as the best Group of Five conference, with the most and best opportunities for growth. The AAC’s overture to the Pac-4 is very much an attempt to gain leverage against the Mountain West. SMU is one small part of a larger puzzle.
FORCING THE MOUNTAIN WEST TO ACT
The AAC is basically forcing the Mountain West to act. It is, in many ways, making sure the Mountain West doesn’t execute a hostile takeover of the Pac-4. That tactic seems like something the Mountain West should consider, but here’s why a hostile takeover of the Pac-4 won’t work: It would officially (not unofficially, but fully) end the Pac-12’s existence. The Pac-12 is a Power Five conference with Power Five revenue distributions for the College Football Playoff, the New Year’s Six bowls, and the NCAA Tournament. If the Pac-12 officially dies (as opposed to essentially dying but continuing on in a merged form with the Mountain West), it loses those revenue distributions. Mountain West schools would not be able to benefit from that.
It’s clear that a merger — rather than a hostile takeover — would serve the current Mountain West school membership, specifically the Mountain West schools which would definitely be included in a possible merger.
MOUNTAIN WEST SCHOOLS WHICH MIGHT NOT BE PART OF A MERGER WITH THE PAC-4
Reporting from the San Diego Tribune, which we linked to and referenced in a recent story on a potential Pac-4 merger with the Mountain West, indicated that Hawaii, San Jose State, and Nevada were at risk of not being included in a potential new (merged) conference with the Pac-4 leftover schools.
AAC PUTS PRESSURE ON THE PAC-12, TOO
The AAC and the rest of the college sports world have seen the Pac-12 and George Kliavkoff fail on an epic scale. The AAC is therefore applying pressure not only on the Mountain West, but on the Pac-12. If the Pac-12 can’t successfully convince its Pac-4 schools to merge with the Mountain West, the league will officially die, removing a Power Five conference from the college sports landscape.
The AAC would hope it can step into the void and — as a long-term goal — possibly gain the Power Five revenue distributions the Pac-12 currently has.
The AAC would essentially dare the Pac-12 to successfully execute a merger with the Mountain West, but if the Pac-4 schools either don’t want that merger or think the money isn’t what it could or should be, the Pac-4 could either go independent in football or seek the AAC as a landing spot.
CONCLUSION
No one is saying or implying that the AAC is likely to grab any of the Pac-4 schools. This move is basically geared toward putting pressure on both the Mountain West and Pac-12 to execute a merger, which is certainly possible but is also far from certain. The AAC is hoping the Pac-12 and George Kliavkoff will fail … which is not an unreasonable bet to make. The AAC is also making this move so that if Stanford goes to the Big Ten and Oregon State goes to the Big 12, the Mountain West will hold a weaker set of cards, which could enable the AAC to swoop in and collect either Cal or Washington State, maybe both.
Stay tuned.
