5 things to care about from Week 8: Dominant Cam Newton passes a tough test
So much happens in any given Sunday of the NFL season. It’s hard to keep track of it all. More importantly, it’s quite a lot to decide what we should value as signal and what we should just ignore as noise. In this space, I’ll go through all that I watched in Week 8 and give you the five things I care about coming out of Sunday, along with five things I can’t muster up the emotional energy to care about.
Five things I care about
The Panthers kicking around the Ravens
The Ravens came into Carolina as two-point favorites, but you wouldn’t know it by the results. The Panthers completely controlled this contest on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton played perhaps his best game of a season — one that’s starting to look like one of the more underrated 2018 individual campaigns. According to the Next Gen Stats player tracking data, while Newton was expected to complete 62 percent of his passes this week (in line with his 2018 average), he checked in with a 72.4 percent rate. He’s now completed 3.8 percent of his passes over expectation this season, ranking top-seven in that metric.
Newton got some help today, which is out of the norm for the former MVP passer. Christian McCaffrey popped in his first rushing score of the season and caught another. The Panthers defense kept the heat on Joe Flacco all afternoon, picking him off twice and dropping him for a pair of sacks. The surprising performance came from rookie D.J. Moore, who stepped in for Torrey Smith and ranked second on the team in wide receiver snap rate (70.3 percent). Moore looked like a young Golden Tate, averaging 8.6 yards after the catch per reception. He totaled 139 combined rushing and receiving yards. Not only did Moore perform, fellow athletic youngster Curtis Samuel ranked third behind the rookie and Devin Funchess in receiver snaps. A turn to the explosive younger options in this offense only raises the intrigue of a unit Newton is running with more efficiency than at any other point in his career.
Larry Fitzgerald going for 8-102-TD
The NFL world spent most of the leadup to Week 8 fantasizing about how new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich might boost the usage of running back David Johnson. The star back turned in a strong 20-touch day, but it was Larry Fitzgerald who turned in a vintage performance. The veteran receiver scored his second touchdown in consecutive weeks and cleared 100 yards for the first time since Christmas Eve of last season. From a volume perspective, this was the type of monstrous workload we got used to from Fitz, with a 42 percent share of the team’s air yards. Fitzgerald, Johnson and impressive rookie Christian Kirk inhaled 58 percent of Josh Rosen’s targets. If this is how the Cardinals passing offense will run in the Leftwich era, we can approach the unit with some cautious optimism after weeks of misery.
Russel Wilson’s marvelous efficiency
The NFL’s Next Gen Stats player tracking data reveals that Russell Wilson had an elite passing day, overperforming his expected completion percentage by 36.5 percent; the highest over the last three seasons’ worth of data. Wilson drilled throw after throw down the field and outside the numbers on Sunday. It was a remarkable passing performance. Wilson currently ranks top-five in the NFL with a 112.6 passer rating and an 8.8 touchdown rate. His striking efficiency continues to make him a strong producer, despite a measly 182 pass attempts on the season. He’s no doubt in danger of the kiss of regression creeping his way soon but something is different about Wilson this year. With more pass protection and less wild improvisation, Wilson is having one of his best pure passing years. Players like Tyler Lockett and super sleeper David Moore reaped the benefits today. Chris Carson got the game script he needed to thrive with 25 carries for over 100 yards, as well. Something is clicking in Seattle, despite all the skepticism.
Lessons learned from Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is truly not of the human race. This article won’t be the last football piece you read that says this. It’s probably not even the first. We marvel with joy at Adrian Peterson’s accomplishments, which are truly unprecedented at his age. However, there’s much to learn when reflecting on the last year and a half of his career. It’s my opinion that running back is the position most dependent on its surroundings to accrue production. Peterson’s case shows that clearly. The future Hall of Famer showed in at least two games with the Cardinals last season that he still had the juice. Many advanced metrics washed that reality away as Peterson played behind a dysfunctional Arizona offensive line and a unit that spent much of the season juggling Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton behind center.
Watching the film did reveal the truth about what Peterson had left, but it took the right situation to make it a reality. As soon as he got a visit with Washington, I began scooping him up at the end of every draft because this was the exact setting Peterson needed to showcase his still-present gifts. Behind a strong run-blocking line and in a stable offense led by an underrated coach in Jay Gruden, Peterson looks like he’s turned back the clock. Few expected this level of play from him, but there are plenty of applicable lessons to use in evaluating future running back situations — even those inhabited by mere mortals.
Backup running back stashing season gets early entries
Handcuffing running backs during fantasy drafts is a fool’s errand. However, we’re approaching the time to start stashing high-upside backfield fliers on your bench. Once you’ve made it through your individual bye week gauntlet and the need for moderately playable depth has come and gone, make room for backup runners who could shine to close the season. Injuries and backfield chaos are inevitable realities of the NFL universe. Don’t fret it — just put yourself in a position to benefit from it.
Two early candidates emerged today. Massive Eagles rookie (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) Josh Adams barreled through the Jaguars defense in London for a team-high 61 yards on nine carries. He played more than last year’s Super Bowl hero, Corey Clement. The athletic Trenton Cannon slid into Bilal Powell’s vacated role in the Jets offense and has seven catches over the last two weeks. He led the backfield in snaps with the team in negative game script. If you want to get ahead of the rush and have space, these are the type of stashes you ought to make.
Five things I don’t care about
Sweating small sample blips in production
Sunday Night Football featured two players who drew the ire of fantasy football owners in recent weeks due to minor stalls in their production. Folks were still upset with Alvin Kamara’s ghosting on Monday night back in Week 5. Stefon Diggs came into the game fresh off a 33-yard finish on 14 targets last week. Not one should dare speak ill of either after these performances. Kamara was a steady force in the Saints offense, racking up 20 touches, scoring twice and getting eight targets in a positive game script. Despite being one of the most talented wideouts in the league, Diggs was falling too far behind his star teammate Adam Thielen in the public’s opinion, as the latter strolled on his epic 100-yard streaks. Diggs went on to drop the hammer on the Saints, snaring 10 of his 11 targets for 119 yards and a score.
The football season is so short, it naturally inspires panic when players go through even the shortest of cold streaks. We need to react quickly so as to not fall behind in accepting new realities. However, there are certainly players at the top echelon of their positions where we just need to relax during the dry periods. The usage of said talents has not changed. Kamara and Diggs were prime examples over the last few weeks.
Kerryon Johnson’s slow rushing day
While Chris Cason got the perfect game script for rushing success in Detroit, the young running back on the other side of the field wasn’t as lucky. The Seahawks gained an early lead over the Lions and their lead back, Kerryon Johnson, came away with a team-high eight carries for 22 yards. Don’t sweat it. Johnson and the Lions will find better situations for rushing in future weeks. In fact, we actually came away from Week 8 with a positive note from Johnson’s usage: his work as a receiver. Johnson handled 20 percent of the team targets with Theo Riddick out, ranking third on the team behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. He made it count with six catches for 69 yards. Johnson showing two-way versatility a week after he crushed the Dolphins with 158 rushing yards is a great sign for his future. It’s easy to spot Johnson is a good player. Don’t let this Week 8 blip on the ground sway your opinion.
Aaron Jones’ big game
Someone somewhere is already in the middle of an Aaron Jones victory lap after the Packers back averaged over seven yards per carry and ripped off a rushing score in the team’s road loss to the Rams. Nothing has really changed in his outlook, however. Jamaal Williams was still a factor, taking in the first touchdown of the game, and Jones handled a mere 12 carries and accumulated zero passing yards. His rushing work was dazzling but we always knew he was the team’s best pure runner. We also knew going in that the Rams defense doesn’t mind conceding rushing production in favor of hunting the passer up front. Week 8 comes and goes with no actionable improvement in Jones’ fantasy stock. We can keep on chirping about how he needs the ball more but we’re just yelling into the void and getting no closer to our desires on Sunday.
Expecting Jameis Winston progression
Despite being suspended for the first three games of the season and not starting in his 2018 debut, Jameis Winston still leads the NFL with 10 interceptions. It’s clear he’s a competent passer with great ability and a gamer’s mentality. Nevertheless, Winston’s back-breaking mistakes today (four picks, one returned for a score, five sacks) became too much for the Buccaneers. The coaching staff pulled him after his fourth pick and Ryan Fitzpatrick reclaimed his spot under center.
He went on to complete 11 of 15 throws for 194 yards and a pair of scores. Fitzpatrick is the streakiest quarterback in the league but looks much more comfortable in this Air Raid-like offense. It’s clear the best version of Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback for the Tampa skill players. It’s unlikely we have seen the last of Winston this season, but it’s time to cease expecting we will get anything other than the exact same player he’s been throughout his college and NFL career. He has a clear ceiling but his low moments can strike at any moment — even in strong on-paper spots like this one was.
Todd Gurley’s kneel down
Not here for your complaints about losing one potential Todd Gurley touchdown. If you’ve played him in fantasy, you aren’t exactly hurting for scores. Gurley made a smart decision to ensure his team the best shot at winning. If you’re in your feelings about Gurley’s choice, there is no sympathy for you here. If you choose to tie your money to this wildly unpredictable game that follows little predictable patterns, these are the breaks. While this was a wild one, these swings in fortune will happen. Certainly don’t go embarrassing yourself by offering up your complaints to Gurley himself on the internet.
