5 reasons Clemson pulls off a massive win over Florida State in Week 4
Clemson vs. Florida State hasn’t felt this big in years, and the Tigers will need to play a near-perfect brand of football on Saturday to walk out of Clemson Memorial Stadium with a win over the Seminoles.
There are no doubts that No.4 Florida State is a talented team and head into Death Valley with something to prove. From what we’ve seen out of expert predictions and Vegas betting lines, this matchup is expected to be a close one that could go either way.
With the various possibilities, there are multiple reasons that Clemson can pull off a massive win over Florida State and shake the ACC up once again. Here is a look at my five reasons Clemson upsets FSU.
Clemson has been excellent at home under Dabo Swinney
Homefield advantage means more for some and less for others. Clemson is one of those programs where it just means more. In the College Football Playoff era (since 2014), Clemson is 61-2 at Memorial Stadium. That adds up to a nation-leading .968 home winning percentage… That’s pretty dang good. Though we’ve seen the Tigers fall more recently in Death Valley, the consistency at home is as good as it gets. Being at home is huge for Clemson.
Clemson has had Florida State's number for years
Even with the close matchup last season (on the road, mind you), Clemson has dominated this matchup for some time. Florida State hasn’t beaten Clemson since Sept. 20, 2014, with the Tigers holding a seven-game winning streak against the Seminoles.
History is on Clemson’s side here, and the situation feels like one where Clemson should have the advantage. We’ve seen how Clemson thrives with the underdog mindset; the Seminoles haven’t beaten them since 2014, and even if FSU got better from 2022 to 2023, I believe Clemson has, too.
Clemson's defense has the talent to control the game
If Clemson wants a chance in this game, the defense will have to play an excellent game that they are capable of playing. There is no denying the talent that is on Florida State’s roster. Jordan Travis is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, Trey Benson is a great running back, they have a dynamic duo at wide receiver in Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, and Jaheim Bell is an athletic do-it-all tight end.
The Clemson defense has a lot to worry about, but they also have the talent to handle it. Their secondary looks far improved and won’t make things easy for Wilson or Coleman. The linebackers are incredibly versatile, creating an issue for Travis whether he drops back or runs. The key will be the Tigers’ defensive line, which has an interesting mix of youth and veteran talent. If one of the players on the edge steps up and makes Travis’ life even more difficult. Clemson has a clear path to a win if the defense plays at a high level.
Clemson's run game could cause big problems for the Seminoles
Florida State has been middle of the pack against the run this season, and they have yet to play a team with Clemson’s talent at running back. Part of Clemson’s clear path to a win if the defense does its part are star running back Will Shipley and change of pace back Phil Mafah. If Clemson can slow this game down and feed their running game while finding success, the Seminoles will be in trouble. The more Florida State’s defense is on the field, the worse off they’ll be. Clemson’s offensive line is good enough to win the battle up front in the run game, and if they do, it could be a grueling game for FSU. Also important to remember, Shipley has been fantastic in two career games against the Seminoles.
Florida State has been prone to giving up 10+ yard plays
Shoutout to the man William Qualkinbush for bringing this to my attention. According to Qualk, Clemson ranks in the top 10 nationally in plays of 10+ yards this season, while Florida State is tied 96th nationally in giving up 10+ yard plays. While Clemson’s offense hasn’t been overly impressive through three weeks of the season, this is a statistic that matters.
The biggest issue for the Clemson offense this season has been sloppy play and inconsistency. They’ve found their way downfield in every game they’ve played but haven’t taken advantage of opportunities near their capability. If the offense puts together a complete game where they’ve cleaned up these mistakes, then Clemson can put up points and win this game. Playing clean football is an avenue to a win.
Garrett Riley and the Clemson offense have something to prove
In a game where both programs have something to prove, at Clemson, the eyes will be on Garrett Riley and the Clemson offense. Riley’s system has proven to get players open and generate yards. Still, the Tigers have had serious issues creating big plays. In a matchup with Florida State where it is make or break, Riley will get as creative as he needs to keep the Seminoles’ defense guessing and the Clemson offense moving. In a game where the offense needs to step up, Riley will have the play calls to make it happen.
