5 questions for Oregon Ducks to answer in big-time showdown with UCLA Bruins
The Oregon Ducks have not had this magnitude of a matchup since the first week of the season when they were faced with a showdown against the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs. They learned a lot in that game, most notably how far they still had to go before contending with the best teams in the nation, and most obviously, that Dan Lanning’s former team is still really good.
They grew from that experience and have used it to better prepare for this second big-time matchup of the year.
“Our theme for this week was just ‘control what you control,'” said tight end Moliki Matavao. “That’s really what the Georgia game kind of set out for us; forget about everything else and just control what you can control. Control our effort, control our physicality, control our assignments. As long as we do that, we’ll come up big.”
It will be interesting to see if that’s enough to sway the tides in their favor.
While there are some obvious questions that everyone has going into this game — Who is the top dog in the Pac-12? Does the winner of this game have a chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff? — we want to take a strong magnifying glass to this game and see what it reveals. Here are our five most important questions for Oregon to answer against UCLA on Saturday:
How big of a factor will Autzen play?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Earlier this week we broke down the tape and figured out which team, Oregon or UCLA, holds the edge on paper in this matchup. According to my calculations, I think that a slight edge should be placed on the Bruins.
However, that doesn’t take into account the environment. That’s where I think Oregon has a huge advantage.
Not only are we expecting to see some classic Eugene wet weather on Saturday, but the stands at Autzen Stadium are going to be rocking. With ESPN’s “College GameDay: in town, and former Oregon coach Chip Kelly returning to Eugene for the second time since leaving last decade, it’s not going to be hard to drum up the drama. I am supremely confident saying this will be the most raucous environment we have seen in Autzen this season, and there’s a good chance it’s the craziest environment the Bruins have played in all year as well.
Will that play a major factor? It’s too early to tell, but I think you will get a good feeling for it early on. Does UCLA make some simple mistakes early in the game? Does the crowd noise cause some miscues in the first quarter? That will be your red herring for how important the noise will be down the stretch, and it could swing the game in Oregon’s favor.
Can Bo Nix steal the big stage?
A lot of national eyes are going to be tuned in to this game to try and get some clarity on the Heisman Trophy race. They will not start the game watching Bo Nix, though, but rather keying on UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. After the Bruins’ recent run of success, he has curried favor with Heisman voters for his stellar play.
I’m curious to see if that conversation will shift during the game, though. Will Nix make it so those same voters have to look in his direction on Saturday?
We’ve made a lot already this year about Nix’s dark horse Heisman candidacy, and this is an opportunity for him to remove that dark horse tag. His stats are up there with some of the best QBs in the nation, and should he lead the Ducks to a big victory over the Bruins, it could act as an early Heisman moment for No. 10.
Will a mobile DTR prove problematic?
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
If you were to take Week 1 against Georgia, Week 4 against Washington State, and Week 6 against Arizona, the Ducks’ defense had a combined 57 missed tackles. Why did I choose those three games to draw statistics from? They are the three contests in which Oregon faced a relatively mobile quarterback who could get to the edge and force members of the secondary to make a play in space.
That’s arguably the weakest point on this defense and an area where the Ducks are really going to need to step up if they want to slow down the Bruins. With running back Zach Charbonnet pounding the rock up the middle, I don’t have significant concerns the game will get out of hand since the Ducks have the No. 13 rushing defense in the nation. However, we’ve seen mobile quarterbacks give Oregon trouble so far this year, so my eyes will be on Thompson-Robinson every time he escapes the pocket.
Is Oregon's defense better than the numbers say?
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I don’t think we have to sugar-coat it; Oregon’s defense has not been great this season. We came into the year thinking they would be the dominant side of the ball, and much of the Ducks’ success would be built on the backs of Noah Sewell, Brandon Dorlus and Christian Gonzalez. Instead, we have a unit that ranks 113th against the pass, 61st in total defense and 82nd in scoring defense. In comparison, UCLA’s defense looks better on paper, with the No. 88 passing defense, No. 33 total defense and No. 44 scoring defense.
I think these numbers are a bit skewed, though, and may not paint the complete picture for what we will see on Saturday. A lot of the damage was done early on in the year during the 49-3 blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1, and Oregon has been fighting to get those numbers down since. While the Ducks’ defense may not be great, I do believe that they’re better than the number show, and should hold up against UCLA on Saturday.
How high is Oregon's ceiling?
AP Photo/Andy Nelson
In my mind, there are three outcomes on Saturday that are going to have an impact on how we view the Ducks’ ceiling this season. Let’s go through them:
Oregon loses close game: Should the Ducks be competitive in this game and end up not being able to come out on top, I think we should still feel confident saying that they can compete to make a conference championship and potentially contend should they get there. I also think if the Ducks lose in a convincing fashion, this is still the ceiling for them.
Oregon wins close game: Should the Ducks pull away from UCLA late and secure this massive victory at home, I think Duck fans should feel great and be confident this team can contend for a Pac-12 championship in Dan Lanning’s first season and potentially play in a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Oregon wins big: What if the Ducks come out and put it on UCLA as they did against BYU earlier in the season? I know it seems unlikely since this is such an evenly matched game, but the possibility for anything exists. If Oregon can step up to the national stage and look the part of a dominant team, I think we might start hearing some conversations about their resume for the College Football Playoff. That Georgia game was a long time ago, and this is a different team. They may really show that on Saturday if they were to win big.
