5 games that could swing Mississippi State football's season in 2023

STARKVILLE — There are two sides to expectations surrounding Mississippi State football entering the 2023 season.

The optimists see the Bulldogs are coming off their best season since 2017. They return key pieces on both sides of the ball, featuring quarterback Will Rogers and linebackers Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson.

The skeptics see uncertainty. Zach Arnett, who was promoted from defensive coordinator following Mike Leach’s death in December, is a first-year head coach. Kevin Barbay is implementing a much different offense than the Air Raid. Key players such as cornerback Emmanuel Forbes and center LaQuinston Sharp are gone.

ESPN's College Football Power Index metric has MSU winning 6.3 games. DraftKings sets Mississippi State’s win total at 6.5 – with plus-money to be made on the over. Here’s a look at five games which could determine which side of the vegas line Mississippi State finishes.

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Sept. 16 vs. LSU

The MSU vs. LSU series looks lopsided on paper. The Tigers have won 77 of the 116 meetings, including 14 straight from 2000-2013. However, the rivalry has been thrilling the last three seasons.

MSU pulled off a stunning upset in 2020 – taking down the defending champs on the road in Leach’s first game at the helm. That was followed by a 28-25 LSU win in Starkville in which Mississippi State repeatedly hurt itself. Last season saw the Bulldogs take a 16-10 lead into the fourth quarter before the Tigers pounced for a 31-16 win.

LSU has national championship hype, but a September morning matchup in Davis Wade Stadium could shift both programs’ expectations.

Oct. 21 at Arkansas

MSU and Arkansas have taken turns commanding this rivalry. After a 40-17 win in Starkville last year, it would appear the Bulldogs are in line to string together wins against the Razorbacks.

Arkansas is in a similar position as MSU – with DraftKings setting the win line at seven despite the return of quarterback KJ Jefferson. Mississippi State’s last trip to Fayetteville saw a 31-28 win for Arkansas after three missed MSU field goals.

Oct. 28 at Auburn

Mississippi State’s last trip to the Plains featured perhaps the most memorable win in Leach’s tenure. Down 28-3, the Bulldogs surged toward a 43-34 win. Last season nearly saw the opposite, with Auburn overcoming a 21-point deficit to force overtime. However, MSU held on to win.

Hugh Freeze, the former Ole Miss coach, is now at Auburn working under former MSU athletics director John Cohen. That’ll be motivation enough for MSU fans to want a victory.

Auburn will be a better team under Freeze than Bryan Harsin. Going into Jordan-Hare Stadium won’t be easy, especially after playing at Arkansas the week before. This two-game stretch could determine MSU’s season.

Nov. 11 at Texas A&M

Despite its consistently higher-rated recruiting classes, Texas A&M hasn’t been able to decipher the Mississippi schools since joining the SEC. Mississippi State is 9-7 against A&M, including back-to-back wins.

One of the most impressive victories of Rogers’ career came in College Station two years ago. Back at Kyle Field in front of a maroon-out crowd, MSU will have a chance to clinch momentum heading into the final two games.

Nov. 23 vs. Ole Miss

It’s the Egg Bowl. One team could be 0-11 with the other at 11-0, and the outcome would still be uncertain. This rivalry has played a big role in dictating successful seasons, and this year will be no different.

Ole Miss returns plenty on offense, highlighted by quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins. However, there are questions surrounding the Rebels’ defense.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football: 5 swing games in Bulldogs' 2023 schedule