5 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 1 Thursday, Friday
5 best predictions for the first big weekend of the college football season. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for Week 1’s Thursday and Friday games?
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Week 1: Thursday/Friday | Saturday | NFL
Week 1 Schedule, Game Previews
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Week 0 turned out to be interesting, but now it gets going for real.
If you were on the right side of the Northwestern call against Nebraska – you’re welcome for that Wildcat on the money line call (getting the cockiness out of the system now before reality kicks back in) – and if you figured out that Vanderbilt was an all-time gift, you enjoyed Week 0.
But we’re all still guessing here.
There aren’t any preseason games, and what happened in Week 0 stayed in Week 0. For the Thursday and Friday games for Week 1 the idea is the same – go with what you know, assume that no one is sharp quite yet, and remember that the coaching staffs had weeks to prepare for this opener.
The big picks for the Week 1 Saturday are coming. First, after the soft opening of Week 0, we get the introduction to the season as we continue to ease into the fun.
Results So Far: 7-1-1
Click on each game for the preview
5. West Virginia at Pitt point total
LINE 51
Point Total Pick Over
I have to redeem myself for my two misses of last week – they were both on point totals.
The Illinois-Wyoming game was a push, and Northwestern suddenly decided to do that scoring thing again in its win over Nebraska.
That’s all fine. The Backyard Brawl will make up for it.
The point total started out at 55.5, and even then that seemed potentially ten points too low. It immediately dropped like a rock to 51, and the world is going to be a happier place for it.
Obviously that means the public doesn’t believe that this will be any sort of a shootout, but you don’t need much to get to the 51 – 27-24 pushes, and there will be a whole lot more scoring than that.
New teams, new players, but same style for Pitt. Lots of pass rushing, lots of leaving the corners out to dry, and lots of chances for new West Virginia starting QB JT Daniels to bomb away. The Panthers went over on 51 in every game but three last year, and even with the big losses on offense, they should do their part.
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On the other side, there’s a good defense coming back, West Virginia allowed over 20 points nine times. Again, we’re not asking for a firefight here – one team is going to hit 30 in this, and both probably will.
And more than that – and don’t ever take this next part as any reason to invest – it’s one of the big games on Thursday night. You can’t make a game go over, but these two are going to bring the show.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 4 ACC Fun: Temple at Duke, Virginia Tech at Old Dominion
4. Temple at Duke, Virginia Tech at Old Dominion
LINES Duke -7, Virginia Tech -7.5
ATS PICKS Duke and Virginia Tech
I’m lumping together the two seemingly undervalued ACC teams with new head coaches.
I might be a well-known Power Five snob, but that’s not why I’m going with Duke and Virginia Tech here.
Actually, that’s a total lie. You’re giving me two Power Five teams against two mediocre Group of Five programs at only around a touchdown each? Fine. Let’s go.
I like the Duke game more than the Virginia Tech one. It’s at home for the Blue Devils, Temple is going through a coaching change of its own, and I’ll believe there will be scoring when it actually happens.
(BTW, the 51 of Pitt-West Virginia looks even more bizarre considering the point total on the Owls and Blue Devils checks in at 51.5.)
Temple will be better than the 3-9 version of last season, and 2021 shouldn’t matter when looking at 2022 wagers, but …
That Owl team last year really couldn’t score. It didn’t get past 14 points in nine of its 12 games, didn’t do it over the last seven, and now there’s a whole lot of tweaking going on.
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College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 1 Thursday, Friday
Duke is hardly Clemson, but the ACC team shouldn’t have a problem getting past a touchdown here.
Old Dominion is a bit more of a wild card.
I’m not totally buying into the idea that the offense is going to keep it all going after blowing through the Charlottes and FIUs of the world late last season – ODU lost 42-10 to West Forest to start the season, and 30-17 to Tulsa to end it.
There’s so much experience returning, though, and it’s a home game.
Virginia Tech doesn’t appear to be anything amazing right away against new head coach Brent Pry, and if you care about these things, ODU did beat the Hokies back in 2018 …
I’d like it more at Virginia Tech – 7, but it’s a lot better than the 10 it was at a few weeks ago.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Illinois at Indiana
3. Illinois at Indiana
LINE Indiana -3
ATS PICK Illinois
And you’re giving me points, America?
Of course I’m not discounting the New Year, New Team, Fresh Start theory of Week 1, but explain exactly how Indiana is night-and-day better than it was last season when it failed to score more than 15 points eight times and came up with just 207 points in a 12 game season?
It’s not like the Hoosiers are bringing back a bajillion starters and have anything 100% certain they can rely on. This spread is only because no one thinks Illinois is that great, it’s a road game, and … again, no one thinks Illinois is that great.
It’s probably a lot better than we all think.
It would’ve been nice if the yards translated into more points in the 38-6 win over Wyoming, but the Illini were balanced, the defense was terrific, and they have a game of live action under their belt. It is a short week, and it is a trip through the weaving corn fields to get from Champaign to Bloomington.
Until Indiana proves it can start scoring, dig getting Illinois and some love.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Western Michigan at Michigan State
2. Western Michigan at Michigan State
LINE Michigan State -23.5
ATS PICK Western Michigan
Well that moved quickly.
The line started out at a reasonable Michigan State -16.5 and got hammered very, very hard to get to -23.5.
It’s dumb to take what happened several years ago into account when coming up the outcome of a game this week – even though I keep doing it – but Michigan State always has a way of underwhelming right out of the gate.
Remember how scary the 38-31 win over Utah State was to kick off the 2018 season? How about struggling a bit in a 28-7 lid-lifter against a bad Tulsa squad in 2019?
Last year’s team only got by Western Kentucky by 17, had to fight to get past Indiana, and only beat Youngstown State by more than 24 points. A 27-0 win over Rutgers in 2018 was the only time in the last 30 games against FBS teams that the team beat someone by 24 or more.
It was mostly under the former coaching staff, but even when the Spartans were great, they still needed a little while to get going – the 2015 Big Ten champion needed a push to get by Western Michigan 37-24 in the opener, had issues with Air Force for a little while, and …
Enough. Sorry. No current Michigan State Spartan has a clue what happened against the Broncos seven years ago.
Michigan State will win this, but Western Michigan is good.
The offense might need to find some new key parts, but the ground game will move, the defense can get into the backfield, and this almost certainly won’t be anything close to the 47-14 wipeout against Michigan to start last season.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 TCU at Colorado
1. TCU at Colorado
LINE TCU -13.5
ATS PICK Colorado
I will not try to recreate the magic … I will not try to recreate the magic … I will not …
The two lines that stood out among all others when they came out were the Northwestern-Nebraska game and the TCU trip to Colorado.
Northwestern settled in as a 13.5 point underdog, and that’s where Colorado is after starting out just a 6.5 point dog.
The problem is that we don’t know what we’re getting quite yet under new TCU head coach Sonny Dykes.
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The Horned Frog offense will be dangerous – the receivers are going to be deadly – but can the defense come around fast? TCU was a total disaster defensively, and Dykes teams aren’t exactly known for being brick walls.
Again, I’m not trying to recreate the magic here – which for the second time in this column is a whopper of a lie – but like the Northwestern – Nebraska thought, there’s way too much respect being given to a team that has to prove it, and way too little love given to a good head coach who had time to prepare.
I’m not saying Karl Dorrell is Pat Fitzgerald, but he’s a solid head man who should get his team going right out of the gate.
It’s a late start 10 pm ET in Boulder, the Buffs should be fired up at home, and they’re getting almost two touchdowns.
It’s not the big payout of Northwestern, but if you’re so inclined to go money line like I suggested you do last week as a flier on that thing in Dublin, it’s Colorado +380 …
I’m not that confident, but I’ll take my chances on the 13.5.
Week 1: Thursday/Friday | Saturday
Week 0 Schedule, Game Previews
