4-Down Territory: The biggest questions for the 2023 NFL draft
In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” Kyle Madson of Niners Wire and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire get into the four most important questions as we near the 2023 NFL draft.
Do the Houston Texans HAVE to take a quarterback with the second overall pick?
Is Texas running back Bijan Robinson worthy of a top-five pick, regardless of positional value?
Beyond Aaron Rodgers, how many current NFL quarterbacks will be taken before (or during) the draft?
Who are our underrated prospects who will make big impacts on their NFL teams, regardless of their Day 2 or Day 3 status?
You can watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here:
Do the Texans HAVE to take a quarterback?
(Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
Doug: I don’t think they do. The thing that general manager Nick Caserio and new head coach DeMeco Ryans understand is that they’re still recovering from the Bill O’Brien/Jack Easterby era, when mistakes were made. There are needs all over this roster, and if the brain trust truly believes that there are better players at other positions, especially with the second and 12th overall picks, they should go with that.
My latest mock had them trading for Trey Lance, taking Jalen Carter with the second pick, and getting Boston College receiver Zay Flowers (my WR1) at 12. If they believe that Carter would be more impactful than whoever QB2 is – basically whoever the Panthers don’t take with the first overall pick – they should go with that belief. They’ll get pilloried for it, especially if that quarterback succeeds elsewhere, but you also have to remember that they have two first-round picks in 2024, and they can always trade up and get their guy in that draft. This team isn’t a quarterback away, and the guys in charge should act accordingly.
Kyle: They definitely don’t have to pick a QB. What they have to do is get the pick right as they try and build a contender. If they believe the best player at No. 2 is a quarterback – great. If the best player at No. 2 is a different position – great.
While it’s important to find a star quarterback, it’s much harder to develop star quarterbacks on bad teams so it stands to reason Houston could build out its roster before trying to drop a QB in. New head coach DeMeco Ryans factors into this a couple ways. First, he came from San Francisco where they built a very good roster that widens the team’s margin for error at QB. A defensive-minded head coach could surely understand the value in trying to replicate that team-building strategy.
Houston has to give Ryans some time while they construct a new roster, and they could handcuff him and his coaching staff by forcing a QB project on them. Ultimately they should absolutely love whoever they’re taking at No. 2. That matters far more than the position the player plays.
Is Bijan Robinson worth a top-5 pick?
(Syndication: Austin American-Statesman)
Doug: There have been 16 running backs taken in the first 10 picks of the draft since 2000, with various degrees of success – everyone from LaDainian Tomlinson to Trent Richardson. NFL teams will probably be more afraid of the specter of getting a Richardson that high than the possibility of getting a Tomlinson, especially at a position that has been deemed fungible for so long. So, if Robinson doesn’t hear his name called until the teens or twenties in this upcoming first round, it won’t surprise me at all.
But let’s take positional value aside and look at Robinson specifically. I believe that he’s the best running back prospect we’ve seen since Adrian Peterson, who was selected by the Vikings with the seventh overall pick in the 2007 draft. He’s not an ordinary first-round running back – he is the rarest of all things, a truly generational talent at his position. He broke 104 tackles last season. His broken tackle rate of 39% over his collegiate career is tied with Javonte Williams for the highest since PFF began charting it in 2014. Robinson has the shake-and-bake to get through any defense, he has the long speed to turn any play into a big play, and he’s a legitimate three-level threat as a receiver. This is a running back that can define your offense, so I think you have to throw out the era concerns, and get with the idea that this is the kind of running back you see maybe – maybe – once in a decade.
Kyle: The short answer is “yes.” He’s not the typical running back who is going to affect a team’s offense in a limited number of ways. Robinson is a bonafide receiving threat out of the backfield and split out as a wide receiver. Removing some of his workload from between the tackles should help his longevity, and his receiving skills should make him valuable into a second contract, which is ideally where a team would get with its top-five selection.
For this year’s draft specifically, the answer is ‘no.’ None of the teams in the top five are a Bijan Robinson away from contending and making that pick instead of a QB or game-wrecking defensive lineman would be tough to justify. Seattle could conceivably make sense, but they have Kenneth Walker III in the backfield and plenty of other holes to fill. Robinson is an immense talent, but dropping a top-five pick to draft him this year feels too pricey.
How many quarterbacks will be traded before or during the draft?
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Doug: While it could be three – Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, and Lamar Jackson – I think it will be just one. Rodgers is the obvious one, as his relationship with the Packers saw its obvious end. I imagine the 49ers will get more calls about Lance, but I can’t believe they’ll take lowball compensation for a guy they spent three first-round picks on just two years ago. You can’t have Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold in your QB room and expect to win a Super Bowl, which is the plan over there. And in the end, I think the Ravens will come to some sort of terms with Jackson to make him happy enough – even in the short term – to keep things rolling there.
Kyle: I agree. I think it’s just Rodgers. The Ravens and Jackson will end this song and dance eventually, even if the two sides aren’t totally satisfied with the outcome. Lance should only be on the move if the 49ers are supremely confident in Purdy’s health, and it’s hard to believe they’ll get there by Thursday. Teams aren’t going to be falling over themselves to unload high-end draft capital for a third-year QB with four starts under his belt, and whatever value the 49ers would get in draft picks likely won’t outweigh the value Lance adds to their QB room.
Who's your top prospect who might be taken in Day 2 or Day 3?
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Doug: I’ll go with Iowa State edge-rusher Will McDonald IV. There are prospects you really have to project for NFL success, because their college coaches did not in any way put them in obvious positions to succeed. In McDonald’s case, he was playing inside the tackles in three-man fronts at 6-foot-3 ad 239 pounds. Far from ideal, but he still managed to rack up six sacks and 25 total pressures last season. You put him outside the tackles where he belongs in four- and five-man fronts, and he could double those numbers per season with his NFL team. McDonald has great quickness to the inside and outside, he’s more powerful than you might expect for a player his size, and he’s got maybe the best spin move of any edge-defender in this class. He’s a hidden gem, and it won’t take long for people to figure that out at the next level.
Kyle: This is cheating a little bit because positional value is the only reason he won’t be a first-round pick, but Florida interior offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence is going to be a terrific pro and a long-time starter for whoever drafts him on Day 2. If he adds some additional mobility to his game he could be outstanding. I also really like Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo. He’s super competitive, especially as a run blocker, and he should be able to affect defenses at all three levels in the pros. Mingo may not be an All-Pro or anything like that, but he’s got the makeup to be a productive player for a long time.
