3 key matchups the Cowboys must win against Washington on Thanksgiving
The Cowboys may be heavily favored in their Thanksgiving Day showdown against the division rival Commanders, but as any longtime NFL fan can attest, on any given Thursday, anything can happen.
Margins are slim in the NFL and teams will pay for it if they take an opponent for granted. Look no further than Washington last week. The Commanders were heavily favored against Tommy DeVito and the Giants, yet they lost by a double-digit margin in their Week 11 shocker.
Understandably, the 7-3 Cowboys are favored heavily to win at home against 4-7 Washington on Thursday afternoon.
But in order to fulfill the expectations, the Cowboys will need to win in a few key matchups.
Dak Prescott vs Cover-2
Prescott is on an MVP tear this season. He’s second in the NFL in EPA/play, second in QBR and fifth in success rate. His play over the last five games has been unparallelled, leading the oft-critical Pro Football Focus to bestow upon him the highest QB grade of the season.
But even the top performing QB in the NFL has strengths and weaknesses to his game and Prescott is no exception.
Quarterback EPA/dropback vs different coverage schemes this season. Blue = good, red = bad, grey = small sample size pic.twitter.com/tYxRvlarla
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 15, 2023
Prescott thrives against single high safety/middle of the field closed coverage. Whether it’s Cover 1 or Cover 3, he’s among the best in the NFL. Against the blitz, he’s equally impressive. In fact, Prescott has 103.7 passer rating against the blitz this season.
Where Prescott struggles from time to time is against Cover-2 looks. When defenses play back and take away the deep play and the sideline, his numbers dip. Like many top QBs, he doesn’t like to dink and dunk his way down field; he prefers to attack aggressively.
Last week in Carolina was an example of a defense sitting back and forcing him to play patiently. Unfortunately for them, he responded to perfection; taking what the defense gave him and resisting the urge to sling it into coverage.
A similar gameplan will likely be in place with Washington and it’s up to Prescott to play patiently and take what’s being given to him.
DaRon Bland vs double-moves
Bland is unquestionably a strength for this Cowboys defense and after returning four interceptions for touchdowns already this season, offenses would be wise to avoid him. Sam Howell may think differently.
After tossing three interceptions last week against New York, the gameplan will likely consist of short passes that are timing based rather than long drop backs that move through progressions. But after watching Bland jump yet another route on his way to six points, the Commanders may see a perfect opportunity to pepper in a double-move or two on the Cowboys’ newest ballhawk.
Whether it’s an out-and-up or a traditional sluggo, baiting Bland with one move, only to pull it in and launching a ball deeper downfield, could prove profitable for the Commanders.
Bland is just one pick-six away from setting the NFL record and as such, could be a little overeager on Thursday to cash in early.
Teams did this often against Trevon Diggs after his record-setting season and they could see the same opportunity to do it against Bland in coming weeks.
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Brian Robinson Jr. vs Dallas run defense
If there’s one weakness that’s held true from the offseason all the way to Week 12 of the regular season, it’s the Cowboys’ run defense.
Statistically, Dallas rates in the middle of the pack. They are 15th in rushing yards against, 13th in rushing EPA against, and 31st in rushing success rate against.
On Sunday, the Panthers ran for 4.8 yards/carry – well above their season average of 3.9 yard/carry. Only one team in the NFL averages over 4.8 yards/carry this season so it’s safe to say the Cowboys are suspect in this area.
At 4.6 yards/carry, Washington is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt. They rate 18th in EPA and 14th in success rate. Robinson, arguably their most gifted runner, stands 6-foot-1, 228-pounds. He can pick up the tough yards and also pick up big chunks if he sees daylight.
Brian Robinson jr is going to see some opportunities against the Cowboys suspect run defense. He’s a big back with breakaway ability who I expect to see a hefty workload #DALvsWAS pic.twitter.com/CkjOgbR4AK
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) November 22, 2023
Washington wants to slow the game and keep the ball out of Prescott’s hands. A run-first game plan with short passes speckled in is a good way to achieve that.
