2024 NBA Play-In Takeaways: Can No. 8 Miami beat No. 1 Boston again?
Things move fast in the NBA playoffs, so to help you stay on top of things, from now through at least the end of the second round, we will have nightly takeaways from the postseason action.
Can No. 8 Miami beat No. 1 Boston again?
Last season, Miami was pushed into the play-in, beat the Bulls to advance out as the No. 8 seed, then eventually beat the Boston Celtics on their way to the NBA Finals.
This season, Miami was pushed into the play-in, beat the Bulls to advance out as the No. 8 seed, and their waiting for them are the Boston Celtics, with Game 1 on Sunday.
Can history repeat itself?
No. For two key reasons.
The first and most important is Jimmy Butler's knee. Last season, Playoff Jimmy averaged 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists a game against Boston in the playoffs and was the best player in that series. This season, Butler very likely will not take the court. His knee was injured against the 76ers when Kelly Oubre fell on him, and Butler did not play against the Bulls (they didn't need him to beat Chicago). Miami said Butler was out due to a left MCL sprain. As Jeff Stotts noted at In Street Clothes, even a mild MCL sprain is about three weeks recovery time on average, and this series will be long over then.
Second reason? These Celtics are better. Kristaps Prozingis in the middle opens up a variety of options, Jrue Holiday at the point brings championship experience and elite defense to the position, and Joe Mazzulla has found his footing as a head coach and pushes the right buttons now.
Miami is Miami. It's not going to be an easy series for Boston, but this season is not going to be a repeat of a year ago.
Is this embarrassment enough to force changes in Chicago?
For the second season in a row, a below-.500 Bulls team did not advance out of the play-in. That after 15 months of ownership and team president Arturas Karnisovas choosing to stand pat and ride with this roster. Friday night, the Bulls shot 38% against a shorthanded Miami team and tied their season low in points with 91. It was an ugly performance.
Chicago is on the NBA treadmill of mediocrity, stuck in the middle with a "meh" roster that will finish between the 6-11 seed every season. This might be just fine with ownership because the Bulls were fifth in the NBA in attendance (down from first the last two seasons, but the building is still full), and that means they are making a lot of money.
You can hear the excuses now: This team has more than $60 million of the payroll out injured. It was one bad game. This team is more like the one that went 9-5 in December or the one that thrashed Atlanta. There are good players on this roster, and they have great chemistry.
No. This loss needs to be a wake-up call that being stuck in the middle is not good enough. It's time for a change.
Those moves likely start by trading Zach LaVine — which is not easy, there isn't much of a market for him — and having a hard conversation about whether DeMar DeRozan is part of the long-term future. Is Nikola Vucevic part of it? I'm not saying tear it down to the studs and rebuild, but retooling on the fly can get this team younger, more athletic, and with a path forward. The roster the Bulls have is not going to suddenly start winning at a top-four pace, even if Lonzo Ball does return (and let's hope he does, for his sake). Bulls fans deserve more and should be given little hope.
Can Pelicans pull off the upset, knock off No. 1 seed Thunder?
That headline might be more accurately phrased, "Is Zion Williamson going to play against the Thunder?”
Oklahoma City is the top seed for good reason — this is a top-10 team of offense and defense, led by a legit MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander, a breakout number two player in Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren changed their defense around the rim plus can space the floor, and there are solid role players around them like Josh Giddey and Lu Dort. However, the knocks on the Thunder are a physical team can push them around, and they are inexperienced in the playoffs as a group.
If Zion takes the court it changes the dynamics of this series — his physical, downhill play would be tough for the Thunder to deal with, and it would open things up for Brandon Ingram and others. The Pelicans have the defenders with guys like Herb Jones to slow OKC. With Zion, one can see a path forward for New Orleans to take the series.
However, it all starts with Zion, who is out with a strained left hamstring. That usually means a couple of weeks out and can't be rushed because of the fear of re-aggravation. ESPN's report said Zion would be re-evaluated in two weeks, which suggests he could be out longer. Either way, it seems unlikely he will play against the Thunder at any point.
If Ingram gets rolling as he did against the Kings Friday night and we get a CJ McCollum game, the Pelicans can push the Thunder a little — this is still a 49-win New Orleans team. But if they don't have Zion back, it could be a short series as well.
