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2024 MLB Futures Best Bets for NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

NBC Sports
·2 min read

Vaughn Dalzell explains why the Pirates' Paul Skenes has a shot at winning NL Rookie of the Year despite not being on the big league roster right now.

National League Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes (+2300)

Paul Skenes is the MLB's No. 3 prospect and was expected to make the Opening Day roster for the Pirates, but Pittsburgh did what they always do and opted for its 21-year-old pitcher to pitch in Triple-A.

In his third start in Triple-A this year, Skenes set a career-high in the minors with eight strikeouts over 3 1/3 scoreless frames. In the fourth Triple-A start, Skenes went 3 1/3 innings with one hit and eight strikeouts to two walks, including 34 four-seam fastballs that reached 100 MPH on 43 attempts.

In four starts over 12.2 innings during Triple-A, Skenes has 27 strikeouts to five hits allowed with a 0.71 WHIP, and a .116 OBA. His fastball and 6-foot-6 235 lbs frame is reminiscent of the Reds' Hunter Greene, so I love the potential for Skenes.

The Pirates got off to a hot start with a 10-4 record but proceeded to go 1-4 over the next five games. A pitcher like Skenes could inject some more excitement into Pirates baseball, especially if the winning continues to subside.

Pittsburgh is +260 to make the postseason and if Skenes is in the rotation, while the Buccos are in the hunt around July/August, then his odds will be far less than +2300 to +2000 by that point -- they already dropped from +4000 without a MLB pitch thrown.

I played Skenes at +2300 on FanDuel to win NL Rookie of the Year and would go down to +2000 before he is called up. I want to get the value now before he leads the Buccos in strikeouts.

Pick: Paul Skenes to win NL ROY (0.5u)

MLB Futures in my pocket

2u: Hunter Greene Over 183.5 Strikeouts (-106)
2u: Jesus Luzardo Over 189.5 Strikeouts (-110)
1u: Ronald Acuna Jr. to win NL MVP (+500)
1u: Julio Rodriguez to win AL MVP (+1000)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in triples (+750)
1u: Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+700)
1u: Jesus Luzardo to lead MLB in strikeouts (+3000)
1u: Hunter Greene to lead MLB in Strikeouts (+1700)
1u: Rockies to have the worst record in MLB (+220)
0.5u: Paul Skenes to win NL ROY (+2300)

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