The 2023 Vermont high school girls soccer playoff primer and predictions
Champlain Valley, Rice, Stowe and Leland & Gray. What do they have in common? All four teams are chasing championship repeats.
There's good evidence from this season pointing to title runs for each of the defending champions. But not all championship squads are created equally. There are obstacles at every turn and formidable and deserving opponents in each round.
To set the stage for the next two weeks, here is my annual Varsity Insider girls soccer tournament primer and predictions for each of the four divisions.
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Enjoy!
Division I — Primer and predictions
▶ What to know: It's a numbers and talent game for the reigning champion and No. 1 Champlain Valley Redhawks (14-0), who not only enter the tournament on a 30-game unbeaten streak, they've suffered just one regular-season loss over the last seven years under coach Stan Williams. Built on depth and star power, CVU has struck for 56 goals against just six conceded (with nine clean sheets). Stella Dooley anchors the back line while Chloe Pecor (32 goals) broke the program's single-season goals record for a second straight autumn. The Redhawks didn't always breeze past opponents; they copped five one-goal victories including a 1-0 overtime triumph over Colchester last week. ... Speaking of the No. 2-seeded Colchester Lakers (12-2), coach Jeff Paul's squad is well-equipped for a deep playoff run: They've made the semifinal round or better nine years running. The 2023 Lakers have racked up 49 goals, allowed just eight tallies and compiled nine shutouts. Junior Ava Moore headlines a group of confident, skilled and quick attacking players and defender Isabel Benoure isn't afraid to dribble out of trouble or squash scoring chances with her foot skills and length. ... No. 3 Mount Mansfield (9-5) is very deliberate and patient in building an attack, which is controlled by a midfield trio of Sofia Randall, Chloe DeJong and Finley Barker. The Cougars, last year's runners-up, are 5-2 over their last two games with both defeats against — you guessed it — CVU and Colchester. Another stat to watch: MMU is 9-0 when it scores; 0-5 when it doesn't. ... Sitting at the No. 4 seed, Burlington (9-5) did not find the back of the net during a three-game losing skid to close the regular season. Can the Seahorses find an offensive spark in time to keep their title hopes alive? Star forward Brooks DeShaw sits one goal shy of tying the program's career goals mark (56). ... No. 6 South Burlington (6-6-1), winner of three of four games, and No. 9 Essex (4-7-3) are capable of playing dark horses. The Wolves split with MMU and Burlington this season and Rachel Kelley and Oakley Machanic were part of the team's title run as the sixth seed in 2021. The Hornets, meanwhile, gave Colchester its first loss of 2023.
More: How CVU's Pecor, Burlington's DeShaw, Colchester's Moore rack up goals
Playdowns
No. 9 Essex over No. 8 Mount Anthony
No. 12 BFA-St. Albans over No. 5 Burr and Burton
No. 10 St. Johnsbury over No. 7 Brattleboro
No. 6 South Burlington over No. 11 Rutland
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Champlain Valley over Essex
No. 2 Colchester over St. Johnsbury
No. 4 Burlington over BFA
South Burlington over No. 3 Mount Mansfield
Semifinals
CVU over Burlington
Colchester over South Burlington
Championship
CVU 2, Colchester 1 (OT): Just like the regular-season matchup, extra time is needed to determine a winner between these longtime rivals as the Redhawks add another title to their state-record haul.
Division II — Primer and predictions
▶ What to know: Division II might be the toughest of the four to predict. Six teams are at eight or more wins, and that group doesn't include the defending champion. At the top, No. 1 U-32 (12-1-1) is battle-tested for the tournament, with six one-goal victories (four of them via 1-0 results). ... No. 2 Milton (12-2) tallied 56 goals this fall, but relied on its defense down the stretch with four clean sheets in its last five contests. Midfielder Holley MacLellan and forward Savannah Monahan make the Yellowjackets a dangerous outfit. ... Led by Sabine Brueck, No. 3 North Country (10-3-1) put up 60 goals during the regular season. The Falcons bookended that stretch with wins over Milton and Harwood. ... Under first-year coach Lynn Sobczyk, No. 4 Harwood (9-4-1) has made an impressive mid-season turnaround: A nine-game winning streak was highlighted with victories over Rice, Stowe and U-32 before the regular-season finale defeat to North Country. ... No. 5 Mount Abraham (8-4-1) can play spoiler with goalie Joanna Toy and No. 7 Rice (6-5-3) is the two-time defending champion that split with South Burlington and Milton. The loss to Harwood was Rice's first in-division defeat since the 2020 final. The road to a three-peat is a tough one for the Green Knights, who have a potential quarterfinal matchup at rival Milton.
More: 11-goal game! Marroquin, Rice storm back from big deficit to stun Milton in overtime
Playdowns
No. 9 Missisquoi over No. 8 Stratton
No. 4 Harwood over No. 13 Green Mountain Valley
No. 5 Mount Abraham over No. 12 Montpelier
No. 2 Milton over No. 15 Enosburg
No. 7 Rice over No. 10 Middlebury
No. 6 Spaulding over No. 11 Otter Valley
No. 3 North Country over No. 14 Lamoille
Quarterfinals
No. 1 U-32 over Missisquoi
Harwood over Mount Abraham
Rice over Milton
North Country over Spaulding
Semifinals
Harwood over U-32
Rice over North Country
Championship
Rice 3, Harwood 2: After facing a gauntlet of playoff opponents, Rice solves Harwood to snag a three-peat in the program's seventh straight title-game appearance.
Division III — Primer and predictions
▶ What to know: Top-seeded Fair Haven (10-2) has been knocking on the door of the program's first title for the last five seasons. Last year, the Slaters fell in the title game in overtime. This fall, Fair Haven has racked up 69 goals and went undefeated against D-III opponents in their title pursuit. ... No. 2 Woodstock (10-3) closed the regular season on a five-game winning streak and lost to Fair Haven 3-2 on Sept. 29. ... Audrey Rupp (42 goals) and No. 3 Windsor (12-1-1) are 9-0-1 since a 2-1 setback to Woodstock on Sept. 15, and have 82 goals on the season. ... Three-time defending champion Stowe (8-5-1) owns the fifth seed, but is 8-1-1 since completing a brutal stretch against D-I and D-II teams. ... No. 4 BFA-Fairfax (12-2), No. 6 Lake Region (8-5-1) and No. 7 Northfield/Williamstown (10-4) are potential sleepers.
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Play-in
No. 16 Thetford over No. 17 Bellows Falls
Playdowns
No. 1 Fair Haven over Thetford
No. 4 BFA-Fairfax over No. 13 Randolph
No. 5 Stowe over No. 12 Oxbow
No. 2 Woodstock over No. 15 Peoples
No. 7 Northfield/Williamstown over No. 10 White River Valley
No. 3 Windsor over No. 14 Springfield
No. 6 Lake Region over No. 11 Danville/Twinfield/Cabot
No. 8 Vergennes over No. 9 Green Mountain
Quarterfinals
Fair Haven over Vergennes
Stowe over Fairfax
Windsor over Lake Region
Woodstock over Northfield/Williamstown
Semifinals
Stowe over Fair Haven
Windsor over Woodstock
Championship
Stowe 3, Windsor 1: After knocking off top-seeded Fair Haven in the semifinals in a rematch of last year's title game, the Raiders race to a fourth straight D-III title.
Division IV — Primer and predictions
▶ What to know: Ranked No. 1, Arlington (13-1) piled up 51 goals, with Sidney Herrington and Taylor Wilkins leading the way. ... Second-seeded Leland & Gray (10-3-1) went undefeated against same-division foes; its losses were to Windsor, Brattleboro and Green Mountain. Mary Sanderson and Maggie Parker have powered the attack for the defending champions, who scored three or more goals in eight games this fall. Three other teams had at least nine wins (No. 3 Rivendell, No. 4 West Rutland and No. 5 Mount St. Joseph), while No. 10 Proctor's championship appearance streak appears likely to end at 12. The Phantoms' Isabel Greb surpassed 100 career goals last week.
More: The top returning Vermont high school girls soccer players? Our 2023 watchlist.
Playdowns
No. 9 Blue Mountain over No. 8 Poultney
No. 4 West Rutland over No. 13 Sharon
No. 10 Proctor over No. 7 Long Trail
No. 6 Hazen over No. 11 Richford
No. 5 Mount St. Joseph over No. 12 Winooski
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Arlington over Blue Mountain
No. 2 Leland & Gray over Proctor
No. 3 Rivendell over Hazen
MSJ over West Rutland
Semifinals
Arlington over MSJ
Leland & Gray over Rivendell
Championship
Arlington 2, Leland & Gray 1: The Eagles figure out Leland & Gray — they lost to the defending champs 2-1 earlier this season — for their ninth state crown in program history.
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Contact Alex Abrami at aabrami@freepressmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter: @aabrami5.
This article originally appeared on Burlington Free Press: Vermont H.S. girls soccer: 2023 playoff primer and predictions
