2023 NFL training camp fantasy football notes: Commanders trust Sam Howell ... should you?
Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon sifts through all the training camp noise this week to uncover relevant signal — key information that fantasy drafters can use to their advantage this season.
Sam Howell named Washington Commanders starter
Starting off with a bang here in this news recap … also what may be the least surprising item in the bunch. Despite giving Jacoby Brissett decent money to sign with the team in free agency, it’s been apparent all offseason that Ron Rivera and Co. were going to Howell every chance to enter the year as the starter.
There’s still a decent chance we see both quarterbacks this season, but Howell will have to play his way out of the job for that to take place. With a good offensive coordinator in the fold and a bevy of talented wide receivers at his disposal, Howell is set up to thrive. He makes for a prime target as a QB2 in fantasy, thanks to some of his rushing history in college. Primarily, I’m just invested in the traits he showed in his lone start of 2022 where he pushed the ball down the field to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, both of whom are proactive targets for me.
Jameson Williams will likely miss the rest of the preseason
If you’re drafting simply on good or bad vibes, Williams has been off your board for quite some time. Just about everything that could go wrong for Williams to this point, has gone wrong. This is troubling because the Lions desperately need him to emerge.
I already had him ranked at a spot where I was advising you not to draft him. I don’t want to burn a hole in my roster for six games with just about any non-elite player. A completely unproven commodity like Williams makes that an untenable proposition. And that’s what Williams is at this stage. His redshirt year was always going to be a redshirt operation and while I liked him as a prospect, there were some questions about his full-field ability as a No. 1 wideout. We have yet to get those answers and we won’t for some time.
Also consider this: If you draft Williams there is a realistic chance you won’t start him until Week 10. Even if you hold him to the end of his six-game suspension — likely sacrificing your chances to land a high-upside waiver-wire back multiple times — you will almost certainly need a “prove-it” week from him in Week 7 and they play a good Baltimore defense anyway. The Raiders will probably present an inviting matchup in Week 8, but if Williams plays only a handful of snaps in his return as he gets up to game speed, that will be a risky bet. Then the Lions go on bye in Week 9.
If you’re a believer in Williams, just let someone else draft him and pick him up when they inevitably drop him.
The Lions are waiving/injured Denzel Mims
More evidence as to why the Lions need Williams to work out. Their outside receiver room is a bit of a mess, the latest blow coming with Mims being waived after suffering an ankle injury that led to a calf injury in rehab.
It’s worth noting that Josh Reynolds, a Jared Goff and coaching staff favorite, is set to moonwalk into an every-down role for this team. Next to no one talks about him, but he’s a quality player. If you need some receiver help early in the season, consider Reynolds who gets the Chiefs, Seahawks and Falcons to start 2023. He's also free in Yahoo drafts.
Breece Hall still dealing with occasional knee soreness
It was encouraging to see Hall get to practice even before his new backfield mate Dalvin Cook. We still need to keep our expectations a little lower for Hall to start the year at the very least.
While it was under a different offensive coordinator (but one who comes off the same tree Nathaniel Hackett branched from in Green Bay) the Jets were the best teams in the league running out multiple true two-tailback packages in 2022 prior to Hall’s injury. I expect that will be the case again with Hall acting as the movable chess piece and “eye-candy” while Cook is a banger back.
That may lead to some frustration for fantasy managers, Austin Ekeler noted to me on Episode 1 of Ekeler’s Edge that this is good for Hall long-term.
Not only will he remain an effective Aaron Jones-style passing threat but his body will feel better after games. That’s crucial for Hall being a big factor in the stretch run of fantasy leagues.
Treylon Burks avoids big-time injury
This one looked much worse at first for the Titans' second-year receiver after being carted off the practice field and some of the videos floating around on social media, but thankfully it was only a sprained LCL, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. It still makes Burks a bit more of a questionable draft pick.
DeAndre Hopkins is likely to act as the short to intermediate-volume sponge of this team. The Titans have another second-year player in Chigoziem Okonkwo at tight end who was one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league last season. Burks probably edges him out for the second place in the target pecking order, but I wouldn’t say it’s a lock and this injury may put it even more up in the air. And of course, we’re talking about a low-volume pass offense anyway.
Russell Gage will miss the entire season after suffering a non-contact injury
The Bucs didn’t get off as easy with their camp injury at wide receiver. It’s a shame for Gage who was recruited by Tom Brady to play a big role in 2022 after a really nice final season with the Falcons but was consistently banged up throughout last year. Now his 2023 is over before it began.
Perhaps his injury opens up the door for rookie Trey Palmer to take major snaps. More likely, this thins out the target distribution and makes things even more concentrated for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That’s a good story to tell yourself if you want to take the post-Brady discount on these two talented wideouts.
George Pickens has 'transformed into a more polished receiver'
There is no getting around the fact that separation was an issue for Pickens as a rookie. The coaching staff deserves some criticism for pigeon-holing him as a go-route tight coverage specialist to an extreme degree, but in fairness, that’s the only area he shined in Year 1.
Talk out of Steelers camp is that Pickens, while still magic miraculous catches on a near-daily basis, has been hard at work rounding out these issues, according to The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly. Of course, we still need to see it come to reality in the pro game, but it’s worth noting Pickens showed flashes of being a smooth underneath separator prior to his ACL injury at Georgia.
If reports from camp are true that George Pickens has developed and is being tasked with a full route tree, it's worth noting that he was a really nice short and intermediate separator in his #ReceptionPerception profile from Georgia. Excellent success rates on curls and… pic.twitter.com/rvAoEkRMY8
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 18, 2023
I’ve been high on the Steelers as a sleeping value offense throughout the offseason. If Pickens can expand his route tree and go further along the X-receiver axis — potentially past the Mike Williams zone and closer to the peak Allen Robinson (ironically on the Steelers) area — then we’re looking at an extremely dangerous unit.
Dolphins LT Terron Armstead was carted off the practice field Thursday
Overall, we avoided the worst-case scenario on this one. Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network said he got an “I’ll be a good” text from Armstead shortly after the injury and Ian Rapoport reported the injury does not require surgery, but Armstead will be questionable for Week 1.
Fantasy gamers don’t pay attention to offensive line play enough as it is but this one is especially crucial to monitor.
Tyreek Hill might be one of the biggest “Jenga Pieces” in the NFL, especially with how light this depth chart is behind him and Jaylen Waddle, and we sure spend plenty of time on the injury concerns for Tua Tagovailoa. Armstead is equally as important. While the offense went in the tank when Tagovailoa missed games last year, not so coincidently those games overlapped with Armstead’s absences. He played eight snaps in the Week 5 Jets game Tagovailoa missed after his Thursday night concussion and they both were out for the following week against the Vikings. Armstead and Tagovailoa also missed the final two weeks of the season and playoff loss to Buffalo. Armstead also missed the 49ers game were Miami hit their fist speed bump of the season offensively.
Unfortunately, injuries have been a theme for the uber-talented Armstead. This adds to some of the volatility in Miami’s offensive projections this season. Fantasy managers must watch this injury.
Miles Sanders “getting close” to return from groin injury
Frank Reich said Sanders likely won’t play at all in the preseason. Sanders has missed a lot of practice with this groin issue. I’ve been in on Sanders as a mid-round pick this season, but now I’m forced to ask myself questions about the three-down role I was expecting.
At the very least, could he end up starting slow? Will Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear end up with bigger roles than I thought?
Overall I think the setup and ecosystem are much better than people think for Sanders. This groin injury is forcing me to raise an eyebrow at my optimistic cases.
Saints RB Kendre Miller back to work
Just in case this slipped through the cracks for you, Miller returned to the practice field just three days after the team said they “hoped” he’d be ready for Week 1. The initial doom and gloom reports were not realistic. Miller is now back on the priority late-round draft pick radar as a talented player in a potentially ambiguous backfield.
Browns’ passing game has been “completely unimpressive” in training camp
The Browns offense is loaded with proven and intriguing options in the backfield and at pass-catcher. But we’ve all acknowledged that the quarterback play is a question mark after Deshaun Watson was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league down the stretch.
It’s worth remembering that observer opinions aren’t the most concrete takeaways we want to value in preseason but there’s a reason this may be important. The Athletic’s Zac Jackson specifically notes, “Anything that involves Deshaun Watson remaining in the pocket has been an adventure.” One of my main football-based concerns when Cleveland made the trade for Watson was that the off-script, shotgun-heavy style of play he thrived with in Houston was quite different from the units we’ve seen under Kevin Stefanski. There’s been plenty of talk this offseason about the offense spreading it out and opening it up but the reality is we’re likely asking both men to evolve and meet in the middle. We run the risk of there being an oil and water factor between what the coach wants and the quarterback (theoretically based on 2022) is best at executing.
