2023 NBA Free Agency: Why fantasy managers should want these 6 players to stay on their current teams
There is never a dull moment in the NBA offseason. The NBA Draft ended and less than a week later, we’re prepping for free agency. The looming CBA is forcing franchises to think differently, as some are electing to cut costs before the season gets underway. John Collins is the latest example of salary dumps becoming more prominent; he was traded to the Utah Jazz for Rudy Gay and a future second-round pick. Value-wise, that’s a heist!
More moves are surely in play across the Association, but as less cap space becomes available, what does that mean for notable free agents? Here, I’ll explain why it might be best for some free agents to re-sign rather than sign new deals elsewhere to preserve their fantasy values.
James Harden - G, Philadelphia 76ers
Harden has until June 29 to decide on his player option of $35.6M ahead of the 2023-24 season. It's been widely reported that he intends to decline his player option in the hunt for a max deal, but what's next — a reunion with Houston or a re-up in Philadelphia?
Make no mistake about it, Harden wants to be in Houston — but not because of basketball. And frankly, he doesn’t fit the Rockets' rebuild anyway. The Rockets selected G Amen Thompson fourth overall in the 2023 NBA Draft while already having Kevin Porter Jr. on the team. Not to mention, they also have a new head coach (Ime Udoka) who is trying to manage a roster of young players and bring in veterans to shape a new culture centered around winning.
From a fantasy perspective, Harden’s best option is to stay in Philadelphia. He’s coming off a third-consecutive season averaging at least 20 points with 10 assists per game, one of three players to do so in '22-23. Notching another 10-assist campaign is much easier when you’re playing alongside league MVP Joel Embiid. Per pbpstats, 244 of James Harden’s assists went to Embiid. That is almost 40% of his assists and 89 more than the next most frequent assist combination, Nikola Jokić to Aaron Gordon.
There’s obvious chemistry in Philly, and it's why Harden was a top-20 player last season. A return to Houston looks less likely, as Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported: "Whispers about a James Harden return have noticeably decreased in recent weeks.” But that’s just fine by fantasy managers, as Harden will command a high-usage rate and, despite a drop-off in scoring, continue to be a reliable contributor for six out of nine categories in H2H leagues.
Kyrie Irving - G, unrestricted free agent
The Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving duo didn’t amount to enough wins to make the postseason, but it was a mutually beneficial relationship in fantasy basketball. Irving was the sixth overall player in 9-cat leagues across his 20 games as a member of the Dallas Mavericks. He averaged a cool 27 points with five rebounds and six assists with 51/39/95 shooting splits. He added 2.9 threes per contest and 1.9 stocks. The Mavericks have been steadfast in their interest in bringing back Irving on a max contract, and it looks like things are moving in the right direction.
BREAKING: Kyrie Irving has requested #11 for next season. This is a great indication that he’ll return 👏👏👏#MFFL pic.twitter.com/sFsNNU5iqL
— MFFL (@Mavs_FFL) June 26, 2023
But we are talking about Kyrie Irving here. Anything is possible until he puts ink to paper sometime after July 1. But it appears the Mavs are in the driver's seat to retain his services, and that’s great news for his fantasy stock going forward. No state tax plus a clean bill of health should warrant a late first, early second-round fantasy draft selection for Irving — who has proven to be one of the most efficient guards in the NBA.
Fred VanVleet - G, unrestricted free agent
Yahoo NBA insider Jake Fischer has noted a few times that the Houston Rockets are planning to make a substantial offer to VanVleet once free agency begins on July 1, but the Raptors could still be in play. VanVleet is coming off another strong fantasy campaign, finishing 17th in per-game value. He’s not an efficient shooter from the field, but he does almost everything else for fantasy managers. He posted a career-high 7.2 assists per game and was among the league’s best in steals, averaging 1.8 per contest and connecting on over 200 threes.
Much like Harden, I struggle with Houston being a profitable destination for FVV, considering how many guards are currently on their roster. Now, he’ll certainly be at the top of the food chain with the amount of money coming his way, but I’d need more insight into the Rockets’ team-building plans before supporting a move to H-Town over Toronto.
From a fantasy perspective, Toronto is ideal for VanVleet because he has no competition in the backcourt besides Gary Trent Jr. The usage and minutes are at a premium with the Raptors, even if they have a new head coach in Darko Rajaković. The Raptors are overly reliant on VanVleet, which is something I love about his fantasy prospects remaining with Toronto. However, the Rockets have a ton of untapped potential, and perhaps a change in scenery could unlock 20-point, 10-assist potential with VanVleet. That's a lofty ceiling, but I can’t ignore the extremely high floor that comes with FVV striking another deal in the 6.
Draymond Green - F, unrestricted free agent
It’s a new day for the Warriors. Mike Dunleavy Jr. has replaced Bob Myers as general manager, and the previously free-spending front office has morphed into a cost-cutting franchise that’s gripping onto its final stages as a dynasty. A significant part of that dynasty is retaining Draymond Green, who declined his player option for the 2023-2024 season.
The Warriors’ decision to ship Jordan Poole and his brand new four-yr/$128M contract to Washington in exchange for Chris Paul was the first domino to fall. Now, the Warriors can focus on bringing back Green, which would be best for his fantasy outlook.
Green’s expected to be courted by the Trail Blazers, Pistons and Kings, so the Warriors have some competition in the marketplace. However, it’s hard to predict Green’s fantasy value outside of Golden State. He finished 100th in per-game value last season, his lowest mark since 2013-14. He’s on the back end of his career, so fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a large uptick in scoring, rebounding or assists. He’s an 8-7-7 player with a couple of stocks.
I doubt the Pistons land Green considering the state of their franchise. Portland would have to make substantial moves in free agency to revamp their roster into a contender, so that leaves the Kings — which, honestly, could work. However, seeing as though the Warriors just beat the Kings in a seven-game series, does that give Green a better chance at winning a ring? I doubt it.
Green’s role with the Warriors is invaluable. He brings out the best version of Stephen Curry, does all of the dirty work on both sides of the ball and is always a couple of points, assists or rebounds away from a triple-double. Money is a huge motivator in this situation, but ultimately, I think Green stays with the Warriors because he’ll get paid handsomely — plus, Poole is gone, and returning gives Green his best chance at winning another championship. All of those factors would unlock the best fantasy numbers for Green at this stage in his career.
Khris Middleton - F, unrestricted free agent
Fantasy managers are rightfully disappointed in Middleton after his performance in the '22-23 season. He finished 147th in per-game value, which was his worst finish since 2012-13, his rookie season. Granted, he missed the first month and change after rehabbing a wrist injury, only to be hampered by knee issues throughout the rest of the season and into the playoffs. He got surgery on his knee after the Bucks were eliminated in the first round of the 2023 playoffs and is on track for a full recovery and resuming basketball activities in July.
Middleton declined a hefty $40M player option for the upcoming season, but as soon as it was reported, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski cited that a return to Milwaukee is possible. However, according to Yahoo NBA Insider Jake Fischer, the Kings have been linked to Middleton in possibly wanting to lure him to Sacramento.
While the Kings would certainly be an entertaining proposition for Middleton’s fantasy value, playing in one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league, the Bucks feel like the perfect situation. Assuming he’s fully healthy heading into the '23-24 season, I’d expect he’d return to his top-50 pedigree. Nothing has changed besides replacing Mike Budenholzer with first-year head coach Adrian Griffin. Brook Lopez is also an unrestricted free agent, but Middleton’s role is secure roster-wise.
He only averaged 24 minutes per contest last year, but his per-36 numbers and usage rate (over 25%) were on par with his previous three seasons. And let’s be honest, he likely opted out of his final year to secure a longer-term contract with the Bucks. But with the new CBA on the horizon, he and the front office can negotiate terms that can get Middleton his bag, plus grant some cap flexibility as the new CBA comes into effect.
I favor the Bucks, but even if he ends up in Sacramento, he’s a prime bounce-back candidate I would target as a mid-round pick next season.
Russell Westbrook G, unrestricted free agent
Westbrook enters free agency coming off joining five teams over his last five seasons. After a tumultuous run with the Lakers, he joined the Los Angeles Clippers mid-season and finished just outside the top 150 from late February through the end of the '22-23 season. That sounds bad, but it was actually a considerable improvement considering that Westbrook was well outside the top 200 earlier in the year. Per Basketball Monster, if you punt turnovers, Westbrook cracked the top 100 in 9-cat leagues during his tenure with the Clippers.
The rumor mill has been quiet on the Westbrook front, but if there’s an opportunity to return to the Clippers, that would be the best option for his fantasy value. The Clippers don’t have much depth at the point guard position. They acquired Bones Hyland mid-season, but he never became a consistent rotational player. Terance Mann also played some point, but his versatility is needed to fill voids at both guard spots and on the wing. Yahoo NBA insider Jake Fischer reported that Norman Powell is on the block — so, with potentially so few options in the backcourt, Westbrook’s camp should be keen on facilitating a return to the Clippers this offseason.
