2023 Big Ten Betting Preview Series: Michigan State Spartans
Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Up next, Mel Tucker and the Michigan State Spartans:
HC - Mel Tucker (4th year)
OC - Jay Johnson (4th year)
DC - Scott Hazleton (4th year)
2022 Record: 5-7
Second Order Win Total: 4.7 (-0.3)
2022 Over/Under: 7.5 Wins
Points/Yards Per Game: 24.4 points | 353 yards (240 pass | 113 rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 27.4 points | 417 yards (238 pass | 179 rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 42nd
2023 SP+ Offense: 56th
2023 SP+ Defense: 25th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 101st
Offensive Returning Production: 40% (120th)
Defensive Returning Production: 68% (47th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8684 (36th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8795 (22nd)
Pace of Play: 24.3 seconds per play (28th) | 64.4 plays per game (106th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 3rd
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
The Spartans disappointed in 2020, going 2-5 during Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing as he navigated the pandemic and installed new systems on both sides of the ball with no spring practices. By 2021 HC Tucker had a better handle on the roster and was able to coax a magical 11-2 season out of the roster behind an explosive offense that ranked 5th in IsoPPP and 6th in marginal explosiveness with a strong 14% big play rate (29th) thanks to a mauling OL and all-world RB Kenneth Walker.
Last year Walker left for the NFL (2nd round pick: Seattle) along with three starting offensive linemen from a solid group that allowed a 4.9% sack rate (28th) despite facing blitzes 33% of the time, which was the 17th highest blitz rate in the country. Their 2022 line was decent in pass protection, allowing a very strong 1.6% sack rate on standard downs (5th) and 4.1% overall (27th). Still, they committed 4.1 penalties per game (99th) while getting manhandled in the run game with a 1.9% blown block rate (113th) and a meager 40% rushing success rate (105th). Pass protection was vital since QB Payton Thorne completed 66% of his passes from a clean pocket, but connected on just 40% of his throws with a 6-to-4 ratio when pressured in 2021. Despite attempting the exact same amount of passes in 2022 as in 2021, 390, Thorne accrued 547 fewer passing yards and eight fewer touchdown passes in that span. He continued to lag when handling pressure, completing 46% of his throws for 5.2 YPA, a 3-to-6 ratio and a 46.7 NFL passer rating. But it was MSU’s inability to stress defenses vertically, ranking 102nd in passing explosiveness with Thorne’s deep shot big time throw rate dropping from 28%-to-20% that hampered their passing attack. For perspective, Thorne was a big game hunter in 2021 who ranked sixth among returning quarterbacks with 1,087 deep passing yards and 10th in deep pass attempts with 70. Thorne had a talented WR group to throw to, as All-American wideout Jayden Reed was one of just nine returning pass catchers in the nation who secured 10 or more touchdown passes in 2021. Unfortunately Reed injured his hip in early-September which slowed him down a bit in the early going. Fellow starting WR Keon Coleman thrived, recording 2.1 yards per route with an 11.5 ADOT and 30% target share. He ran 55% of his routes 10+ yards downfield while leading the team in receiving, establishing himself as a force on the outside with a 63% contested catch rate (10-of-16).
Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard led the Pac-12 in rushing in 2020 and was projected to battle Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger will vye to see who takes over as the primary ball carrier. Berger led the committee, getting roughly half the carries while Elijah Collins and Broussard split the stray RB2 totes. Berger was reasonably effective when MSU’s D could put up some resistance, but scored just two touchdowns against non-MAC opponents with just 20 broken tackles in 148 carries Unlike the Kenneth Walker-era, the Spartans got smothered by upper echelon Big Ten defenses with their PPG average dropping a full touchdown as they averaged under 2.5 yards per carry six times in 12 games.
While HC Tucker pitched an overall solid defensive unit that charted 31st in SP+ in 2021, their pass defense finished and ignominious dead last in the nation with 325 yards allowed. It was so bad that MSU allowed 34 more passing yards per game than the third-worst Pass D unit, New Mexico State. The secret to what made Michigan State’s defense effective, pass defense woes aside, is they were very good at suppressing game-changing plays, ranking 31st overall in marginal explosiveness and 22nd with a 10.4% big play rate against. MSU made a living by clamping down in the red zone, allowing 3.5 points per scoring opportunity (25th) with a 19% red zone TD rate (19th).
Last year HC Tucker and DC Scott Hazleton had the benefit of returning nine starters and 72% of their production from 2021, including seven of their top eight tacklers. Their entire IDL two-deep returned, but were hit by injuries and disciplinary issues with just one DL starting more than 6 games. led by DT Simeon Barrow (28 pressures/28 stops/77.4 PFF grade) and DE Jacob Slade (77.9 PFF grade/311 snaps/11 stops). MLB Cal Haladay is a bad dude who led the team in snaps (823), tackles (127), TFLs (12.0) and stuffs (19), earning First Team All-Big Ten recognition. When Michigan State were able to put teams in throwing situations and pin their ears back, they produced a pocket-collapsing 12.2% sack rate (8th in FBS) and a 16.7% blitz down sack rate (6th). However, those excellent numbers plummeted to a 4% sack rate on standard downs (95th), while MSU’s overall pressure rate was a lackluster 26.8% (81st).
When the pass rush didn’t create the requisite pressure the veteran secondary that returned four starters got absolutely destroyed, allowing a 49% passing success rate (127th), 8.9 net yards per attempt (125th) and a brutal 59% first downs per pass attempt average (124th). The run defense was decent with a 46% opportunity rate (45th) and 2.50 line yards per carry average (51st). However, the porous defensive backfield torpedoed the overall effectiveness of the D, which recorded 3-and-outs on just 23.6% of drives (111th) with a 13.3% explosive play rate (96th).
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2023
Offensively the good news is the OL returns four starters who logged at least 400 snaps last year, along with one of the top-five JuCo offensive linemen from the 2023 cycle, Keyshawn Blackstock. All-Big Ten honorable mention recipients C Nick Samac (803 reps/80.3 pass block grade/team-leading 1.3% blown block rate) and left guard JD Duplain (2.1% pressure rate/0 sacks allowed) form the backbone of the line, while RT Spencer Brown (3 sacks allowed/3.5% pressure rate/8 penalties) and LT Brandon Baldwin (5.1% pressure rate/3.9% blown block rate) simply must improve on the bookends if this offense is going to eclipse the 25 PPG threshold. Jalen Berger is entrenched as the starting RB once again and will be spelled by short-yardage specialist and USF/Colorado transfer Jaren Mangham (brother of starting safety, Jaden), who managed to score 15 touchdowns in 2021 at USF.
The big concern here is the passing game, as two-year starting QB Payton Thorne skipped town after spring practice to join HC Hugh Freeze at Auburn. That leaves a three-man QB weave of Noah Kim, Katin Houser and true freshman Sam Leavitt to duke it out for the starting gig. Kim completed 14-of-19 passes for 174 yards and a 3-to-0 ratio in limited action last year and will likely get first crack at the job, though it’s anyone’s guess if he keeps it. Star WR Keon Coleman chose to exit stage left and transfer to ACC contender Florida State, while promising freshman Germie Bernard (7 recs/18.3 YPC/11.5 air yards per target) transferred to Washington in hopes of earning a starting job OC Kalen DeBoer’s high-octane passing attack once the dynamic duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze move-on. That leaves slot receiver Tre Mosley as the most experienced wideout, catching 75% of his 35 targets, while running 78% of his routes in the short-to-intermediate range. It will be survival of the fittest in fall camp to see who is going to start on the outside though, though i’m hoping to get a glimpse of rFr WR Antonio Gates Jr, for obvious reasons.
On the other side of the ball, the defensive line attrition the Spartans dealt with last year caused DC Hazleton to play underclassmen more than they were likely comfortable with. HC Tucker was aggressive in the portal as well, bringing in top-10 high school DL recruit Tunmise Adeleye from Texas A&M (78.7 PFF tackle grade) along with DT Dre Butler who logged 304 snaps with 9 stops and a solid 5.4% missed tackle rate at Liberty last season. This is now a very experienced group that also returns their star DT Simeon Barrow. The linebackers are among the elite units in the Big Ten, with aforementioned MLB Cal Haladay and four players with starting experience back in the fold. SLB Darius Snow put up 90 tackles in 2021 before sustaining an injury in Week 1, allowing Haladay to flourish at MLB. WLB Jacoby Windmon is a stud who played both edge and WLB last season, accruing 49 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 21 stops and an 80.0 PFF defensive grade.
Without a doubt the defensive backs are the group that needs to improve if Michigan State intends to be a contender, as they allowed a putrid 66% completion rate and 26-to-2 TD/INT ratio. Two starters return, including boundary corner Charles Brantley who struggled in coverage, allowing a 64% completion rate and 18.9 yards per reception with an unacceptable eight touchdowns allowed. Field corner Chester Kimbrough had a respectable 72.1 PFF cover grade in 294 snaps, but must improve his woeful 33% missed tackle rate. They’re projected to start two second-year safeties in Malik Spencer and Jaden Mangham that were pressed into service as true freshman and should be more acclimated to the collegiate game after drinking from a firehose while learning on the job in 2022.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins (Over -130)
MSU has the misfortune of playing the third-toughest schedule in the country this year, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of making a bowl. They at least have the benefit of playing their first four games at home, with Central Michigan and Richmond leading off before Washington’s powerful offense comes to town to wrap up their two-game non-conference series (Wash won 39-28 last year). The Spartans kickoff their Big Ten schedule in East Lansing against Maryland, then to @Iowa for their first away game before enjoying the Week 6 Bye. From there, Michigan State heads east to New Jersey to face @Rutgers that precedes cross-state rival Michigan rolling into town, a team they lost to 29-7 last season with a 0% win expectancy. They draw @Minnesota in a contest they will likely be 7 ½-10 point underdogs, before hosting Nebraska in their last true home game. @Ohio State, @ Indiana and a Ford Field matchup in Detroit against Penn State wrap up the regular season.
Last year the Spartans were barely competitive in their losses with a win expectancy of 7% or less in six of their seven defeats. Their three victories against non-MAC opponents were all very competitive one-score affairs with each win being a struggle. With MSU ranking 120th in returning production from an already troubled defense, and the key post-spring defections of QB Payton Thorne and WR Keon Coleman, I have a hard time believing Michigan State clears their 5.5 Wins Over/Under to achieve bowl eligibility.
