2021 NFL draft: Final grades for the top 10 picks
Top-10 picks are extremely valuable in the NFL, but it’s the responsibility of the front office to select the right player.
Fans expect these picks to develop into franchise cornerstones, or at the very least, capable starters. But there’s been no shortage of whiffs in the first round. This year’s top 10 was one of the most talented groups we’ve seen in some time.
Now that the season is over, check out our final grades for each rookie selected in the top 10. And then hand out your own grades in our fan poll.
Pick 1: QB Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars
Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 3,631 pass yards, 12 TD, 17 INT, 71.9 passer rating; 334 rush yards, 2 rush TD
Analysis: Initially, the Jacksonville situation looked promising for Lawrence as he was set to work with an offensive guru capable of developing him into an elite quarterback. Unfortunately, that guru turned out to be Urban Meyer, who flamed out in spectacular fashion. Lawrence was underwhelming as a rookie and inconsistent from week to week. There were some high points, like leading the Jags to an upset over Buffalo, and knocking the Colts out of the playoff hunt with a strong performance in Week 18. There were some bad lows, though, including his four-interception game against Tennessee and a poor showing during Jacksonville’s 50-10 loss to the Patriots. Nonetheless, Lawrence is ultra talented and he could potentially thrive under new Jaguars coach Doug Pederson.
Final grade: C
[polldaddy poll=11048018]
Pick 2: QB Zach Wilson - Jets
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 2,334 pass yards, 9 TD, 11 INT, 69.7 passer rating; 185 rush yards, 4 rush TD
Analysis: Wilson was thrown into a tough situation and the results probably didn’t surprise die-hard Jets fans. Far too often, the No. 2 overall pick forced the ball when there was nothing there, or held onto it looking for a big play that never developed. Wilson has some sizzle to his game, but he didn’t appear ready to start for a team as talent-depleted as New York this early in his career. Hopefully, the Jets surround him with some talent before they fall in love with another top quarterback prospect.
Final grade: D+
[polldaddy poll=11048022]
Pick 3: QB Trey Lance - 49ers
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 603 pass yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 97.3 passer rating
Analysis: Lance ended up in a great situation where he could occasionally come in and throw a few passes, but the 49ers were Jimmy G’s team in 2021. Lance looked good in limited action, though, and his big-play ability is easy to see even if he’s still a raw talent. I was going to give him a B+, but that didn’t seem fair considering the situation he was in compared to Lawrence and Wilson. We all knew Lance wasn’t ready to start right away coming out of North Dakota State, but he showed enough to validate his selection thus far. Lance should get a crack at the starting job next season.
Final grade: B (appeared in six games)
[polldaddy poll=11048028]
Pick 4: TE Kyle Pitts - Falcons
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 68 receptions, 1,026 yards (15.1 AVG), 1 TD
Analysis: Pitts made the Pro Bowl and finished with the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end in the Super Bowl era. Arguably the most hyped up player heading into the draft, Pitts is just scratching the surface of his immense potential. Still, he went for over 1,000 yards and was Atlanta’s only true receiving threat once Calvin Ridley was placed on the non-football injury list. Pitts disappeared at times, but the Falcons offense as a whole struggled with consistency in 2021. One area where he can improve in 2022 is in the red zone. Pitts finished with just one touchdown as a rookie.
Final grade: A-
[polldaddy poll=11048032]
Pick 5: WR Ja'Marr Chase - Bengals
Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK
Stats: 81 catches, 1,455 yards (18 AVG), 13 TD
Analysis: Chase was this year’s top rookie wideout, and helped lead his team to an improbable Super Bowl run. He and Bengals QB Joe Burrow picked up right where they left off at LSU and look like the next great QB-WR duo. Chase isn’t just this year’s top rookie, he’s already established himself as an elite NFL receiver and has an extremely bright future. Chase averaged 18 yards per reception and caught 13 touchdowns in 2021.
Final grade: A+
[polldaddy poll=11048036]
Pick 6: WR Jaylen Waddle - Dolphins
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 104 catches, 1,015 yards (9.8 AVG), 6 TD; 3 rush yards, 1 rush TD
Analysis: Waddle hit the ground running in Miami and quickly became one of the most reliable receiving options on the team. He caught 104 of 137 targets while doing most of his damage from the slot. The Dolphins offense wasn’t exactly explosive in 2021, and despite Waddle’s elite speed, he was frequently held in check. Just once the rookie surpassed 100 receiving yards in a game. Still, he was a catch machine and hit the 10-reception mark on three different occasions. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel should be able to maximize Waddle’s immense talent.
Final grade: A-
[polldaddy poll=11048041]
Pick 7: OL Penei Sewell - Lions
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
Stats: 16 starts
Analysis: Sewell was an absolute stud in his first year out of Oregon. An injury to Taylor Decker forced the Lions to start Sewell at left tackle before moving him to right tackle when Decker returned at midseason. The rookie never seemed phased and despite some early struggles as a pass blocker, he only allowed one sack after Week 5. Plus, he thrived as a run blocker, earning an 84.5 run-blocking grade for the season from Pro Football Focus. You can’t ask for much more out of a rookie lineman and Sewell should be a great player for a long time in Detroit.
Final grade: A
[polldaddy poll=11048045]
Pick 8: CB Jaycee Horn - Panthers
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 INT
Analysis: Horn was a part of Carolina’s surprising 3-0 start but a broken foot ended his season early. The South Carolina standout recorded five tackles, an interception and allowed just one catch on five targets. The Panthers went on to win just two more games on their way to a 5-12 record (last in the NFC South). Assuming Horn returns healthy, Carolina could use him in the secondary to help complement a talented Panthers front seven.
Final grade: C+ (3 games played)
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Pick 9: CB Patrick Surtain II - Broncos
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 58 tackles (45 solo), 4 INT, 14 passes defended, 1 TD scored
Analysis: Surtain didn’t take long to show he could play at the NFL level. The rookie defensive back finished with four interceptions while playing with the same aggressiveness he was known for at Alabama. There were definitely some lapses in coverage — 49 catches allowed on 85 targets — but playing one of the NFL’s toughest positions, Surtain showed more than enough to validate his selection in the top 10.
Final grade: A-
[polldaddy poll=11048051]
Pick 10: WR DeVonta Smith - Eagles
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Stats: 64 catches, 916 yards (14.3 AVG), 5 TD
Analysis: Smith was overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts, but the Alabama speedster still had a solid first year for the Eagles. He finished with over 900 receiving yards, five touchdowns and averaged over 14 yards per reception. Smith’s college teammate, Jaylen Waddle, had the better season of the two wideouts. However, Smith wasn’t targeted nearly as much (36 fewer targets), and only dropped three balls as opposed to Waddle, who finished with nine drops. Smith needs to improve on his consistency but his upside is everything it was billed as entering the draft.
Final grade: B+
[polldaddy poll=11048052]
Rookie grade recap: Picks 1-10
QB Trevor Lawrence: C
QB Zach Wilson: D+
QB Trey Lance: B
TE Kyle Pitts: A-
WR Ja’Marr Chase: A+
WR Jaylen Waddle: A-
OL Penei Sewell: A
CB Jaycee Horn: C+
CB Patrick Surtain II: A-
WR DeVonta Smith: B+
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