2019 NFL Rookie of the Year favorites on offense and defense (with betting lines!)
Now that we’ve put a bow on the 2019 NFL draft, it’s time to start looking at how these players fit with their new teams.
Among the 254 players drafted, we had 129 on the defensive side of the ball, 120 on offense and five strictly on special teams. Plus hundreds of undrafted free agents — and no, we should not forget about them. After all, among last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year finalists, there were the first two picks in the draft, two second-rounders and, yep, one undrafted player: Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay.
It’s nearly impossible to project any undrafted players who could rise to that level of performance in Year 1. So as we look at some of the favorites for this year’s rookie standouts — five on offense, five on defense — there is naturally a heavy emphasis on the early selections.
(We’ve also provided some betting odds on these players — from FanDuel and Odds Shark on offense, SugarHouse on defense — because wagering money on awards that won’t be handed out for eight months feels like a safe and fun investment. A number of +500, for instance, means you would have to bet $100 to win $500.)
Offense
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
Odds: +260 FanDuel, +250 Odds Shark
Four quarterbacks were drafted in the first 41 selections, yet Murray feels like the best shot of that quartet to start 16 games. The Cardinals have a lot of issues to iron out, and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury enters the NFL with a lot to prove. But if there’s anyone in this class who figures to have a great opportunity to rack up good numbers – at the premier position – it’s Murray in Kingsbury’s “Air Raid” system that should feature plenty of vertical shots.
The Cardinals drafted two big-play receivers in Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, have standbys in David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald and also return 2018 second-rounder Christian Kirk. The offensive line remains a huge concern, but Murray’s scrambling ability might compensate for some of that. He’s a dual-threat passer and runner, and only two rookie QBs since the NFL’s 1970 merger have surpassed both the 3,000-yard passing mark and the 500-yard rushing threshold. That would be Cam Newton in 2011 and Robert Griffin III in 2012, and both won Rookie of the Year those years.
Murray could be the next to hit those marks and take home the hardware. It’s tough to pick against a Day 1 QB starter, and general manager Steve Keim didn’t trade Josh Rosen to ease Murray into the lineup.
He is the massive favorite now.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman
Odds: +1800 FanDuel, +1000 Odds Shark
This is my favorite long shot. Expecting Hardman to be a one-for-one swap for Tyreek Hill – assuming he’s cut or stuck on the commissioner’s exempt list – is a tall order, and there’s always a chance that Hill is allowed to play this season. But Hardman has electric ability and can impact games in multiple ways. There’s also the matter of Hardman still being relatively new to wide receiver, having switched from quarterback in high school and defensive back early in his career at Georgia.
Hardman is an explosive talent with the ball in his hands, and landing in the Chiefs’ explosive offense was a blessing. He might have had only 73 offensive touches the past two seasons amid Georgia’s loaded skill-position group, but Hardman averaged 16 yards per catch, 7.5 yards per rush and a touchdown every 5.6 touches (an incredible figure). He also averaged 15.2 yards per punt return and 25.0 per kickoff.
Putting him in a big role with Patrick Mahomes at QB and Andy Reid calling the shots, and who knows how explosive Hardman could be in Year 1? This is worth a small wager for a potentially huge payoff.
Oakland Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
Odds: +1200 FanDuel, +900 Odds Shark
No rookie back appears to be in line for more work this coming season than Jacobs, who was held back statistically by Alabama’s stacked backfield. Still, he made his impact felt in nearly every game last season as a runner, and Jacobs’ role as a pass catcher could be expanded quite a bit in Oakland. The Raiders added Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, along with rookie slot WR Hunter Renfrow, but Oakland will be losing close to 400 targets in the passing game from last season with players no longer on the roster.
Jacobs’ main duty will be running the football, though, and we have to be leery for a player who had exactly one college game with more than 20 touches and only 317 total in his three seasons at Bama. Remember Cadillac Williams? He had a lot more usage in college, and Jon Gruden ran Williams into the ground his first few years in Tampa. But Williams also was the 2005 Rookie of the Year, and Jacobs has that potential, too.
The Raiders just lost Isaiah Crowell to a season-ending injury, so the job is Jacobs’ to run away with early on.
Washington Redskins QB Dwayne Haskins
Odds: +750 FanDuel, +700 Odds Shark
Will the Redskins let Haskins win the job? Our gut says yes, of course. Sure, Jay Gruden is feeling the pressure to win now, and starting a rookie QB too soon could put the head coach in a tricky situation. If Haskins isn’t ready for the spotlight, benching him and going to Case Keenum would be a tough blow. But not giving him a shot to win the job would be a mistake. Just ask Hue Jackson about that last year when he didn’t give Baker Mayfield any first-team reps in the offseason in lieu of Tyrod Taylor. The Cleveland Browns were too set on Taylor winning the job from the outset, and he is now Philip Rivers’ backup with the Chargers.
Even with some growing pains, Haskins could thrive in an offense that needs work but has interesting pieces. The Redskins have some depth at receiver, tight end and running back, and the offensive line could jell in time. Haskins had no problem divvying up the ball in a loaded Ohio State system last season that featured nine pass catchers with 20 or more receptions and 11 players who caught at least one of Haskins’ 50 scoring passes, including Redskins third-rounder Terry McLaurin (who hauled in 11 TDs).
The Redskins might be too cautious with Haskins and not give him the keys from Day 1, but this is a player we must consider.
Baltimore Ravens WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
Odds: +1000 FanDuel, +1000 Odds Shark
We had a serious T.J. Hockenson vs. Brown debate here, wanting to keep our list to five players. Ultimately we settled on Brown in what could be a busier, more prolific receiving role. Hockenson’s true value to the Detroit Lions – which includes heavily his run blocking – won’t be fully appreciated by the ROY-voting crowd. Besides, tight ends don’t win this thing.
Wide receivers do, however, with Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) and Percy Harvin (2009) being two recent examples. Brown brings a similar level of explosive ability to the table in a Ravens offense that likely will be unconventional. First off, he’ll be the most dynamic playmaker on the team the day Brown steps on the field in Baltimore. Second: This Lamar Jackson-engineered passing game should take on a bit of an NBA-offense feel – spread it out, with an eye on layups and three-pointers. That’s Brown’s game right there in a nutshell; he can go over the top, but he can also catch short passes and turn them into long gainers.
I’d feel better about this choice if Brown had done anything at Oklahoma as a returner (zero attempts) or runner (three carries for 0 yards), but let’s not gloss over that he averaged 18.3 yards and had 17 touchdowns the past two seasons for the Sooners. This big-play ability can be unlocked in a hurry if Brown is healthy.
Others: Hockenson, Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock, New England Patriots WR N’Keal Harry, San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, New York Giants QB Daniel Jones, Broncos TE Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf, Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown, Indianapolis Colts Parris Campbell, Pittsburgh Steelers WR Dionte Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders, Eagles WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Patriots RB Damien Harris, Carolina Panthers QB Will Grier, Los Angeles Rams RB Darrell Henderson, Minnesota Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr.
Defense
Odds: +700 SugarHouse
The highest-drafted defender in 2019, Bosa has a chance to be a double-digit sack rookie. The 49ers have drafted four straight defensive linemen high in the first round — DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, Solomon Thomas and Bosa — and this offseason they added pass rusher Dee Ford to the mix. If they can’t sack quarterbacks at a far more prolific rate this season (they had a pedestrian 37 last year) then something is wrong with the coaching there.
Bosa had only 16.5 sacks in 30 college games, but he was a rotational player his first two seasons before an injury cut short his 2018 campaign after three games. In those three games, he was a terror, with four sacks, a forced fumble and two recoveries (one for a TD) in what amounted to about three halves of football last fall. He’s got the name value and plays for a signature franchise, so that can’t hurt either.
Bosa is the odds-on favorite here, even though it’s a pretty wide-open race and some of the numbers work against him. Edge players have been overlooked in recent years, as the last one to win the award was Von Miller in 2011, and the first defender drafted has won Rookie of the Year only once in the past seven years. Of course, that one winner in that span: Joey Bosa, Nick’s brother, three years ago. It was impossible to watch little bro in college and not see a near facsimile, skill-wise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB Devin White
Odds: +800 SugarHouse
The fifth overall player taken in the draft, White will take his tackle-making prowess across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bucs and should be a Day 1 starter in their revamped defense. Playing in front of 340-pound Vita Vea surely will help keep those lanes free and clear, so White could continue racking up his prolific tackle totals in the NFL after leading the SEC two straight years in the statistic.
White might have intercepted only one pass in his three college seasons, but he totaled 6.5 sacks the past two seasons and had two fumble recoveries and one forced in 2018. He has enough playmaking ability to be in the running for the award. After all, last year’s winner – Colts LB Darius Leonard – had similar fumble and INT numbers at a lower level of football (at South Carolina State) and still made those plays in Year 1.
Odds: +1000 SugarHouse
This is typically an inside linebacker award, with seven of the past 15 winners coming from that position. That’s why White and Bush have to be considered major contenders. They were easily the two best prospects this year at the position, with a huge dropoff thereafter, and each immediately will step into a starting role with a chance to thrive from the outset. Sure, a Leonard-like candidate could emerge with another team in the season to come, but we aren’t sure who the most likely candidate might be.
Bush feels like an excellent addition to a Steelers defense that badly missed Ryan Shazier the past season-plus. With the ability to strike fast and hard against the run, cover in space and track the entire field, Bush is an excellent play.
The Steelers are slated for five prime-time games this season, and there’s a mystique about the linebacker position for that team. If Bush is up among the NFL’s tackle leaders and adds a few big plays, he easily could emerge as the favorite.
The number being what it is, this is our favorite play right now.
New York Jets DL Quinnen Williams
Odds: +900 SugarHouse
Williams was our No. 1 overall prospect over Bosa and yet went one spot later than Bosa did. Although interior players typically have lesser statistics than their exterior counterparts, Williams is a disruptive force who could be a tackle-for-loss monster and perhaps rack up a respectable sack total (eight maybe?) and also fill up the box score in other ways.
This is not our first choice, as Williams will have to have a stunning stat line — after all, the numbers more often than not dictate who wins the award. But defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and his newest addition is a havoc wreaker who might be a great fit in a pressure-scheme from the outset.
Cleveland Browns CB Greedy Williams
Odds: +2800 SugarHouse
Pretty incredible odds for a player who was considered a top-10 talent at one point during the draft process but fell amid concerns over his tackling ability and maturity. Right now, we don’t care too much about those concerns, as a high interception total easily could tilt this award Williams’ way. He will have a very good chance to earn a starting role right away, and Williams is just a year removed from a six-pick season as a redshirt freshman.
After all, two of the past four DROY winners were cornerbacks, as it’s a far more likely position to win it than, say, safety (only two ever, and the last winner was Mark Carrier in 1990). Working against Williams is his draft position: History tells us that the 48th selection isn’t all that likely to win, as 11 of the past 12 DROY winners were first-rounders (Leonard was a second-rounder, the 36th overall pick in 2018).
Still, for these odds Williams is an excellent long shot. The Browns are a hot team now and will be on TV a lot. Even if Williams turns in an up-and-down season, picking off seven or eight passes easily could vault him into the mix. It’s a high total for sure, and interceptions are a tricky stat to project with accuracy. But his playmaking ability and the right situation makes this a very reasonable exception to the rule here.
Others: Jacksonville Jaguars DE Josh Allen, Redskins LB Montez Sweat, Raiders DE Clelin Ferrell, Green Bay Packers DE Rashan Gary, Panthers DE Brian Burns, Buffalo Bills DE Ed Oliver, Giants CB Deandre Baker, Cardinals CB Byron Murphy, Seahawks DE L.J. Collier, Raiders S Johnathan Abram, Colts CB Rock Ya-Sin, Packers S Darnell Savage, Miami Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins, Los Angeles Chargers DL Jerry Tillery, Chargers S Nasir Adderley
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