What 1st round upsets will we see? Five bold playoff predictions for Gainesville area football

Over 75 days ago, high school football teams across the Gainesville area laced up their cleats and kicked off the 2023 season.

Along the way, we saw some legendary games and performances, but also a lot of bad football.

Here’s hoping those days are behind us.

Thursday night, the FHSAA football playoffs will kick off in Alachua County when Mosley travels 250 miles east to Citizens Field. Who awaits the eighth-seeded Dolphins? The top-seeded and undefeated Buchholz Bobcats.

In total, 11 of the 14 local teams that earned playoff bids will be action this weekend. Three of the best – Williston, Hawthorne and Fort White – all will receive some extra rest as the top two seeds in 1R receive byes.

Here are five (bold) predictions for the regional quarterfinals:

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Four-five matchups tend to provide the most interesting first round playoff matchups, and that holds true this week.

Eastside has had a problem with its schedule this season. The Rams haven’t played many schools in their level of competition.

Their losses – all to teams seeded in the top three of the region – were by an average of 33. Their wins – all to squads with three wins or less (besides 6-4 Keystone Heights) – were by a margin of 38.

So, what does this all mean? EHS remains somewhat of an open book after 10 games.

Fortunately, we’ll get our answer this week as the Rams finally draw a team in their level in fifth-seeded Palatka.

The Panthers hold the same problem as Eastside. They only beat one team (Keystone Heights) with a winning record, and two of its three losses came to Bradford and St. Augustine, among the two best teams in Florida.

This matchup is truly a toss-up, but defense succeeds in the playoffs, and that’s why the Rams prevail.

Say what you want about schedule, but six of Eastside’s seven wins came via shutout. That’s an impressive feat.

Don’t get me wrong, Palatka’s offense can be lethal. In six of seven wins, it topped 27 points. But EHS’ unit eclipsed 27 in all seven wins.

Point is, I trust the Rams defense more than the Panthers. Combine that with the home-field advantage of Citizens Field, and Eastside wins a playoff game for the second year in a row under Gator Hoskins.

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In Mosley’s four losses, pass or run defense usually plagued the Dolphins. In setbacks vs Leon and Wakulla, they allowed an average of 404 yards through the air. Against Navarre and Choctaw, it acquiesced 261 rush yards per game.

Versus the top-seeded Bobcats, the Dolphins will struggle to stop both areas.

Despite his age, we know what sophomore QB Trace Johnson is capable of in big moments. He threw for 213 yards per game this season, but in the team’s biggest game vs Bartram Trail, he tossed for 378.

Cutler, meanwhile, dealt with injuries early in the season, but returned to form around mid-season and appears ready to break out with a massive game.

Mosley earned its chops (and a playoff spot) when it beat Niceville 29-28 on October 26, but talented QB Sammy Freitas threw for a season-high 357 yards in the victory over the Eagles.

But there’s no way the junior does that against the likes of Kendall Jackson and Myles Graham.

Give me Buchholz big as the road to Tallahassee begins.

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QB issues plague Columbia against Choctaw

Before last week’s loss to Vero Beach, the Tigers roared to four straight wins and seemed to turn their season around after an 0-4 start.

But Columbia fell to the Indians 31-10 and now must travel a combined 1,034 miles throughout the two weeks.

Its trip this week is to the panhandle and Choctawhatchee.

The 3S-District 1 champions feature a dominant defense that, since its 42-21 loss to Niceville on September 22, held opponents to under 30 points.

Choctaw also played a tough schedule. Four of its wins came over playoff teams (Pine Forest, South Walton, Escambia and Mosley).

Basically, this is a tough draw for the Tigers, especially given the distance.

Columbia also faces some instability behind center. Xavier Collins, who received the starting job after Zach Paulk got hurt, threw four INTs against VB. Paulk, who entered for Collins, didn’t play much better.

Coach Brian Allen will likely play both QBs once again this week, but unless one of them rises to the occasion big-time, Choctaw’s D should feast on the Tigers.

Keystone Heights struggles to score on Yulee

Credit the Indians for making it to this point. In Steve Reynolds first season, KH won six of its last eight after an 0-2 start to earn a playoff spot.

Unfortunately for Keystone, Yulee stands in its way.

The Hornets gave up over 20 points twice and never in their wins. In their final three wins, they held opponents to six total points.

The Indians have scored in their wins, but they came over teams without the track record of Yulee, and versus good defenses like Bradford and Palatka, points have been hard to come by.

KH has scored at least 21 in five straight weeks, and if its defense can make it a slugfest, maybe the Indians can score the upset?

But despite RB Cartez Daniels magic, I can’t pull the trigger on the upset. Although it would be fun.

Lafayette, Newberry repeat regular season ruin

Class 1R features the most local teams – four – and most all-local matchups – two.

Unfortunately, with the aforementioned three teams off, it lacks the intrigue of other classes.

The two local matchups, Lafayette and Branford in region 3 and Newberry and Chiefland in region 4, were blowouts in the regular season in favor of the Panthers and Hornets.

That’ll remain the same this weekend.

The Bucs enter with a better record than the Hornets, but they played just one team with a winning record – Lafayette, a 47-6 loss.

In addition, the Hornets recovered from back-to-back losses around mid-season.

Whichever team wins this game will probably fall to top-seeded Madison County, though.

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Newberry, meanwhile, has loftier goals. The Panthers, whose two losses came to Hawthorne and Williston, think they can win with another bite of the apple.

That journey begins next week with a likely matchup at Hawthorne.

For now, though, they must take care of rival Chiefland. The Indians are heading in the wrong direction, though.

They haven’t won a game on the field since September 29.

Watch for RB Kaleb Woods to go off. In Newberry’s 34-0 win over Chiefland on September 22, the sophomore rushed for 134 yards, his third highest total of the season.

Noah Ram covers Gainesville-area high school sports and University of Florida athletics for The Gainesville Sun. Contact him at Nram@gannett.com and follow him @Noah_ram1 on Twitter. 

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Gainesville area FHSAA high school football playoffs kick off this week