$100K Champ Draft Strategy

Rotoworld Draft Guide subscriber Oliver Gold took home first place in the 2014 online National Fantasy Football Championship, earning a $100,000 grand prize. Oliver is doing a three-part series on re-draft strategy for Rotoworld readers this year. This is Part One. Parts Two and Three will soon be available in the Rotoworld Draft Guide.

After winning last year's grand prize in the NFFC, more than anything my friends wanted to know if they could borrow money. After that, they asked me to draft their 2015 teams for them. In lieu of helping everyone I know draft their teams -- which would no doubt be fun but also might cause my wife to change the locks on our door -- I thought I'd put together a few drafting strategies to give everyone my thoughts on how this year's drafts should go.

I've always found articles on draft strategy to be too broad with simple insights like: Know your bye weeks, have a depth chart handy, adapt as you go. Or, too narrow with tips like: Grab Jamaal Charles. In these three columns, I'll give specific draft strategy according to early, middle, and late-round picks.

I'm basing this on a standard NFFC scoring system of 6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for every 20 passing yards, 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, and 1 point per reception. Each team starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Kicker, 1 DST. Unlike the NFFC, this column's strategy is based on a traditional snake draft, rather than a draft with a third-round reversal.

Lastly, I'll base who is available on Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP report. If Jamaal Charles is available in the ninth round, take him. But I'm going to assume he's gone before that. I'm giving player-specific advice for the first eight rounds -- starters, not including defense and kickers. This first piece will detail my opinion on the best approach for a later-round pick (Nos. 9-12).

Round One (1.09 - 1.12)

The guys I'll consider here are Marshawn Lynch, Odell Beckham, Matt Forte, Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson. I especially like the running back options. The Seahawks are not giving Lynch $12 million this year to watch from the sideline. Pete Carroll hopefully learned his lesson during the Super Bowl. Lynch hasn't missed a game in three seasons. He's a perennial 1,200-yard rusher, catches the ball and scores a lot of touchdowns.

If Lynch is gone, I'm taking Forte. He's been a consistent 1,000-yard rusher for his entire career, only barely missing in 2011 (997 yards), and 2009 (929). Last year, Forte caught more passes than both Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson. Even with the loss of Brandon Marshall, Forte is part of a decent Bears offense with Jay Cutler, Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery.

Several experts rank LeSean McCoy higher than Forte. McCoy racked up yardage last year with over 1,300 yards rushing, but only got into the end zone five times. McCoy is still only 27, but he's coming off two 300-plus-carry seasons and was limited by a toe injury for much of 2014. He went six games in a row without a touchdown. I can't say I have much faith in a Bills offense piloted by E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, or Tyrod Taylor. Buffalo ranked 26th last season in yards per game, and I don't see a big turnaround under Rex Ryan. If Lynch and Forte are off the board at my No. 9-12 pick, I'd be happy to have Beckham or Demaryius late in round one.

Round Two (Nos. 2.01 - 2.04)

I'm not in love with many of the guys going early and toward the middle of round two. I guess that is good news for those who have an earlier-round draft slot this year. (I'll cover that in article three of this series.)

Rob Gronkowski will open the season without Tom Brady due to a suspension.

Calvin Johnson seems to be on a downward health trajectory.

Arian Foster is an annual health risk. Last year, Foster played 13 games, but was only healthy for ten, and in 2013 he only played in eight. I might risk it if Foster had a strong handcuff, but he has Alfred Blue. Foster is a monster when he plays, but I don't think the second round is time to roll the dice. I'm looking for as close to a sure thing as I can get.

DeMarco Murray in Philadelphia just doesn't sit well. I know a lot of experts are very high on him, but I can't see myself drafting him here. Murray is on a new team with competition for carries and catches out of the backfield. I see a good, but not great season for Murray.

The first guy I'm trying to grab here is Jordy Nelson. Nelson may not repeat his monster 2014, but he has Aaron Rodgers and a great Green Bay offense.

After Nelson, I am not going to get caught up in who I should take. I know the guys who will not be there for my next pick, so here's who I'm looking at if Jordy is gone: Jeremy Hill, Randall Cobb and Justin Forsett.

Even with a healthy Giovani Bernard back, I love Hill. He was a monster as a rookie, completely outplaying Bernard at every opportunity. There's no reason to expect anything different this season.

My goal is to come out of the first two rounds with a WR and RB spot filled.

Round Three (Nos. 3.09 - 3.12)

Some guys who will likely be available here are Melvin Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, Kelvin Benjamin, C.J. Spiller and Lamar Miller.

I love Hopkins and Benjamin. Their 2014 stats are in line with Calvin Johnson’s, but their ADP is two rounds later. That’s the kind of value I’m looking for.

DeAndre Hopkins' 2014: 76-1,210-6

Calvin Johnson's 2014: 71-1,077-8

Kelvin Benjamin's 2014: 73-1,008-9

Megatron did play in three fewer games, and projected over 16 games, Calvin would have been much better. But there's real risk he doesn't play 16 games again this year; he hasn't since 2012.

But I'm not taking a wide receiver with this pick. Running back is dangerously thin, and I'm going to take a good wide receiver with my fourth-round pick. If I luck out, I'll end up with Benjamin or Hopkins in round four. But if not, at least I have two running backs I can start every week with confidence.

As exciting as Melvin Gordon is, he won't be on my team. Picking rookie running backs in the third round is not my style.

I'm taking C.J. Spiller. Flashes of untapped potential were evident in Buffalo. In The Big Easy, Spiller should be a PPR beast with stats at least as good as Darren Sproles during his time with the Saints. If you need another reason to like Spiller, New Orleans has the sixth best strength of schedule for running backs, according to Rotoworld's Draft Guide.

Lamar Miller figures to remain underutilized in Miami, but he's my second favorite running back in this draft range. I see a big drop off after Miller at RB.

Round Four (Nos. 4.01 - 4.04)

Here I am in need of a position pick. Recall that I start three wide receivers, and up to four if I flex one. But there are still several quality wide receivers on the board. If Benjamin or Hopkins is available, I'm grabbing one. Andre Johnson should be great with Andrew Luck, while he's on the field. At age 34, how long he'll be healthy is anyone's guess. I can't risk it.

I really like Jordan Matthews. In the nine games he played with Mark Sanchez at quarterback in 2014, Matthews caught 38 passes for 599 yards and six touchdowns. Project that over a season and you're looking at 68 catches for 1,065 yards and 11 TDs. If Sam Bradford wins the job, I would expect even better numbers.

As Evan Silva mentioned in his Lions Fantasy Preview, in 2014 Golden Tate benefited from increased targets due to Calvin Johnson's injuries. Without those, Tate will likely see a drop in production. But he'd still be a safe pick here.

Round Five (Nos. 5.09 - 5.12)

The running backs available here are not worth the risk. Giovani Bernard is an injury-prone backup. How the Giants' backfield plays out is anyone's guess. And T.J. Yeldon had the misfortune of landing in Jacksonville.

I like Martavis Bryant. He is a huge talent with unlimited upside. Pittsburgh looks to be headed for a huge offensive season and Bryant will be a big part of it.

After Bryant, I’d take Desean Jackson. Jackson can be a frustrating player to own. In 2014 he averaged 21 yards per catch, but caught three passes or fewer in 7-of-15 games played. With 56 receptions, Jackson managed 1,169 yards. Robert Griffin III will be running Jay Gruden's West Coast offense for the second year in Washington. If there's even slight improvement from RGIII, it will be huge for Jackson. But even without it, he's a huge talent and worth the risk.

Round Six (Nos. 6.01 - 6.04)

Tight end is very thin this year. A look at the tiered rankings in Rotoworld’s Draft Guide explains it all. Tier 1 is just Gronk. Tier 2 is Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. Tier 3 is just Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett. I couldn’t agree more.

After the top three tiers, it's a complete crapshoot. All teams need to start a tight end, and on draft day there will be only five viable every-week starters. I need to get one of those five. Bennett's ADP is toward the end of round six, but I'll reach a bit and take him with my early sixth-rounder.

Round Seven and Eight (Nos. 7.09 - 7.12; 8.01 - 8.04)

Now that I have two running backs, three wide receivers, and a tight end, I'm taking a quarterback and third running back with my next two picks. If Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are gone, I'm taking Tom Brady. (I'm hoping Brady's suspension is reduced, but am willing to stream quarterbacks until Brady returns.)

For my third running back, I like taking a shot on Isaiah Crowell early in the eighth round. Crowell is likely going to hold down early-down work in Cleveland. With a healthy offensive line, Crowell has good upside potential.

If Crowell isn't there, I like Tre Mason. He showed a lot of promise last year and if Todd Gurley is unable to start the season, Mason will see a bump in value.

Starting Roster

QB: Tom Brady

RB: Marshawn Lynch

RB: C.J. Spiller

WR: Jordy Nelson

WR: Jordan Matthews

WR: Martavis Bryant

TE: Martellus Bennett

FLX: Isaiah Crowell