The 10 biggest ‘What ifs’ in SEC history
Despite the success LSU had under Les Miles and Ed Orgeron (both won national titles at LSU), there’s always been a lingering question among LSU fans.
What if Nick Saban never left LSU?
Saban leaving Baton Rouge for the Dolphins, only to head back to the SEC West, is a move that has defined this era of the sport.
The college football landscape is vast and wide. One move, big or small, can cause a massive butterfly effect. Here, we’ll be looking at some of the decisions and results that have shaped our current era of college football, and what may have happened if things played out differently.
What if Tim Tebow went to Alabama?
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Tim Tebow’s career is one of the best the SEC has seen.
Tebow, along with Urban Meyer, made Florida a powerhouse in the late 2000s. Florida battled Alabama during Tebow’s recruitment. This was before Saban’s time in Tuscaloosa, and Mike Shula was leading the Crimson Tide.
Alabama was coming off a 10-win season that placed the Tide No. 8 in the final AP poll. Florida was in a good spot too, with Meyer building momentum and finishing 9-3.
In 2006, the programs would head in different directions. Alabama went 6-7 and Shula got fired. Florida won a national championship.
Had Tebow chosen Bama, it’s hard to say if things would have been different.
Chris Leak was Florida’s starting QB in 2006, but Tebow saw a good bit of action. He accounted for all three touchdowns against LSU and scored in the national title.
But that was a Florida team good enough to beat Ohio State 41-14. The Gators may have won that title with or without Tebow. The bigger question is: Would Tebow’s arrival have changed Shula’s outlook at Alabama?
Alabama had five losses in 2006 by one possession or less. The offense was one of the worst in the SEC, and maybe, a young Tebow would’ve changed that. However, the Tide were also caught up in an NCAA investigation that could have resulted in Shula’s departure regardless.
You want a scary thought? Imagine Saban showing up and getting sophomore Tebow from Day 1 in Tuscaloosa.
What if Cam Newton stays at Florida?
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
On that Florida roster with Tim Tebow was a young Cam Newton.
Like Tebow, Newton was a highly-touted five-star. He was Tebow’s backup for a couple of years before ending up in some off-the-field trouble and spending a year in the JUCO ranks. Newton took his talents to Auburn, where he was a generational player and led Gene Chizik’s squad to a national title.
Urban Meyer left Florida following the 2009 season, and the Gators have never quite contented for a national championship since. What if Newton was hanging around and ready to take over as Will Muschamp arrived?
Newton would have had the chance to do for Muschamp what he did for Chizik. Put an entire team on his back and lead them to a title.
What does the SEC West look like in 2010 if Newton isn’t there? Almost single-handedly, he led his team to wins over good Alabama and LSU teams. LSU would have won the West and entered the SEC title with one loss. A win there could have sent the Tigers to a national title.
What if Bobby Petrino doesn't burn out at Arkansas?
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
I understand the evident humor in this question. Petrino seems to burn out everywhere he goes, or more accurately, burns everyone else out.
Since 1990, Arkansas has won just 10 games just three times. Two of those were with Petrino. His 11-win season in 2011 is tied for the most single-season wins in program history and the Razorbacks rose as high as No. 3 in the AP Poll, finishing the year ranked fifth.
When things went south and Petrino was out of a job, Arkansas faded back to the bottom of the division.
Petrino’s Arkansas never threatened to win a national title and he wasn’t building a dynasty, but it would have been interesting to see another really good program in the West as Alabama was ascending.
What if LSU hires Tom Herman?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
It was Thanksgiving night of 2016. LSU was playing Texas A&M in College Station. LSU’s head coaching search was coming to a close and the candidates were obvious.
Tom Herman and Jimbo Fisher’s names were thrown out there a lot. We knew Ed Orgeron getting a promotion remained in play too. The news broke — LSU would be hiring Houston’s Tom Herman. The search was over. Then it wasn’t.
The deal fell through when Texas took a swing at Herman and LSU promoted Orgeron that weekend. Herman and LSU got so far, ESPN even ran a breaking news graphic during the LSU game.
Obviously, it worked out for LSU. Three years later, LSU would go on to win a national title with one of the greatest teams ever. The SEC’s story these last few years would have been a lot different if Herman were in Baton Rouge.
That dream team is never assembled. [autotag]Joe Burrow[/autotag] ends up at Cincinatti. Either Saban or Kirby Smart would have an extra SEC Championship, or maybe Trevor Lawrence and Clemson go back-to-back.
LSU was in a better spot than Texas was at the time. It’s also possible Herman has more success at LSU than he did at Texas.
What if Ed Orgeron hires Lane Kiffin?
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
When Orgeron first got the job, the obvious offensive coordinator candidate was his old friend and then Alabama OC, Lane Kiffin.
Kiffin and Orgeron go way back and there were rumors that Kiffin was ready to accept the job in Baton Rouge. Then FAU called and Kiffin got a head coaching opportunity.
LSU hired [autotag]Matt Canada[/autotag] only to fire him after one year. With Kiffin, LSU’s offense probably gets rolling much quicker than it did.
Kiffin was going to be a head coach soon anyway and likely would have left Baton Rouge after one year. His career trajectory would have been different. That doesn’t mean it would have been worse, but the stars wouldn’t have aligned for him to end up at Ole Miss.
A lot of butterfly effect scenarios could be looked at with this one.
What if Missouri and Texas A&M stay in the Big 12?
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
One of the SEC’s biggest events this century is the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri.
A&M and Missouri haven’t done much on the national level as SEC members, but Missouri did win the East on two occasions. You could say that Alabama wouldn’t have lost to A&M in 2012, but the Tide won a title that year anyway.
This round of conference alignment was just a preview of what was coming next. In 2021, Oklahoma and Texas announced their plans to join the SEC. All of this was inevitable (I think). So maybe this “what-if?” isn’t as interesting as it sounds on the surface.
At the same time, maybe the sport does look different if that first major round of conference realignment didn’t happen.
What if Saban doesn't bench Jalen Hurts?
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jalen Hurts has had a wild career.
He burst on the scene as a true freshman in 2016 at Alabama and led the Tide to a national title appearance, where they fell short against Clemson. The next year, Hurts was back in the championship, this time against Georgia.
Hurts started the game, but all year, fans were intrigued by what Tua Tagovailoa could be — the young phenom.
Alabama’s offense struggled against an elite Georgia defense. Hurts didn’t have his best stuff and Saban turned to the freshman. Tagovailoa came in and led Alabama to victory.
Saban’s legend grew, and Georgia would have to wait to break its title drought. We’ve seen Georgia overtake Alabama these last two years. If Georgia wins that one, the dynamic could have shifted sooner.
At the same time, Kirby Smart might have needed that loss to be pushed to make the right changes on offense.
Georgia and Alabama are both consistent programs, and I don’t think a single-result changing would have massively changed how things actually happened.
What if Mark Richt remained at Georgia?
Joshua L Jones
Georgia was in that national title two years after moving on from Mark Richt.
Richt was a good coach who won a lot of games. Universally respected and a fan favorite. But he never got Georgia over the hump. He came close, in 2012 for example, but when Alabama became the machine it did, Georgia fell behind.
Following the 2014 season, Richt was out and Kirby Smart was in. Year 1 under Smart wasn’t great, but the Bulldogs ascended to the top of the sport as a perennial contender not long after.
If Georgia stays with Richt, or even moves on but doesn’t hire Smart, things look a lot different in the SEC. Alabama’s defenses could have been just a little bit better, maybe the difference between one or two more titles.
Georgia wouldn’t have emerged as the force it was in the division, which could have opened up an opportunity for Dan Mullen’s Florida to do more than it did.
What if Steve Spurrier's South Carolina has a one-loss season?
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Under Steve Spurrier, South Carolina had three consecutive 11-2 seasons. They’re the only three 11-win seasons in school history.
Each of those seasons also had two-losses, so the Gamecocks never got a crack at a national title. A few of those losses were close, such as a two-point loss at LSU in 2012 or a loss by the same margin at Tennessee in 2013.
Spurrier’s teams were good, even if they were still a step away from elite. Had South Carolina been just a notch better, it’s possible they get a chance at a BCS title berth.
And when you’re in the dance, anything can happen.
What if Saban stays at LSU?
(AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Here’s the big one we opened with. Nick Saban leaving LSU and eventually taking the job at Alabama changed the entire complexion of the sport.
Saban’s Alabama is one of the best dynasties American sports has ever seen. Its dominance and ability to sweep up talent pushed LSU down a notch in the SEC West, and until 2021, prevented Georgia from winning it all.
Alabama set the standard, putting pressure on everyone else in the SEC. What fans view as success changed because everyone wanted to beat Saban. So much would be different had Saban remained at LSU.
Building a dynasty requires perfect conditions, and who knows if Saban would have done the same at LSU, but we know he wouldn’t be at Alabama.
Even if LSU didn’t accumulate the sheer number of titles Alabama has, the Tigers likely would still have been top dogs in the SEC. Maybe Richt gets a ring at Georgia, or Meyer gets one more at Florida.
You could go all day because the grip Saban has had on the sport is that seismic.
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