Week 8 Sleepers
At the start of the week, Vegas had projected a whopping four Week 8 games (SD at DEN, CHI at NE, GB at NO, and WSH at DAL) with an over-under of 50 points or greater. We're lucky to get two such games a week. And the Eagles at Cardinals game also could turn into a shootout. There are plenty of points to be scored, and only the Giants and 49ers are on their byes. Everybody knows the deal with Sleepers by now. In parentheses is Player X's FanDuel price. For quarterbacks, anything below $8,000 is value. I've set the limit at about $6,000 for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
QB Carson Palmer vs. Eagles ($7400): In two starts back from a nerve issue in his shoulder, Palmer has uncorked 75 passes, completing 50 of them for 251.5 yards per game and a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. Coach Bruce Arians continues to say how Palmer keeps improving and nearing 100 percent. He has one of the best playmaking supporting casts in the league, and it's a healthy group. Palmer now gets an Eagles pass defense that is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. And Palmer gets them at home in the desert. He's a legit back-end QB1, but his $7400 salary checks in at 19th among quarterbacks on FanDuel.
QB Kyle Orton at Jets ($7200): Orton is averaging 41 attempts and 296 yards passing across his three starts, while completing 68.3 percent of his throws with a 5:3 TD:INT ratio. There may not be a more underrated signal caller in fantasy at the moment, even if Orton doesn't look great in real life. Orton has made Sammy Watkins an every-week starter. And with the Bills losing Fred Jackson (groin) and C.J. Spiller (collarbone) and inserting Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown at running back, they may lean even more on Orton and the passing game against the Jets' stout run defense. Unfortunately for the Jets, their pass defense doesn't match their run defense. The Jets are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have coughed up a league-high 18 passing scores. Orton makes for a fine streaming option, as long as the winds aren't terrible at the Meadowlands.
Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2.5 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 8's games. It's only $25 to join and first prize is $500,000. Starts Sunday, October 26th at 1pm ET. Here's the link.
RB Mark Ingram at Packers ($6100): Making his return from a broken hand against the Lions last week, Ingram managed just 16 yards on ten carries. Owners shouldn't have been expecting much against Detroit's second-ranked run defense. Ingram now gets Green Bay's 31st-ranked run D. In addition to the fine matchup, Ingram is likely to see an uptick in carries. Pierre Thomas is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with shoulder and ribs injuries, and Khiry Robinson hurt his finger and forearm against the Lions, forcing him to sit out practice Wednesday. Robinson also lost a fumble in Week 7. The Packers have already given up over 1,000 yards rushing to go along with seven touchdowns. The Green Bay at New Orleans matchup has the highest over-under of the week. Ingram is a top-20 back, yet has the 31st-highest salary at the position on FanDuel.
RB Jerick McKinnon at Bucs ($5800): McKinnon has graduated from the Sleeper ranks, but his salary has yet to catch up on FanDuel. He's averaging 16.75 touches per game the past four weeks and has overwhelmingly out-snapped Matt Asiata 87-43 the last two games. Coach Mike Zimmer also praised McKinnon's pass blocking this week. McKinnon is the clear-cut lead back in Minnesota. After becoming the first running back to run for over 100 yards on the Bills' No. 4-ranked run defense in Week 7, McKinnon gets a softy against the Bucs. Tampa was playing solid against the run early on, but has since fallen off. The Bucs are 25th against the run and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. McKinnon will likely find his way onto just about all of my lineups.
RB Bishop Sankey vs. Texans ($5300): Sankey's Week 8 matchup has been favorable from the start, but it got better, in my opinion, after it was reported Wednesday night that Zach Mettenberger would start at quarterback against the Texans. While the Texans struggle against the pass, they have an elite pass rush that is expected to get Jadeveon Clowney (knee) back this week. Clowney and J.J. Watt should wreak havoc on a Tennessee offensive line that is starting rookie Taylor Lewan at left tackle and turnstile Michael Oher on the right side. Mettenberger will have opportunities for big plays thanks to his cannon arm, but I'd expect the Titans to filter their offense through Sankey. Nobody needs to worry about Shonn Greene's return from a hamstring injury. As we can see with the Mettenberger decision and the recent elevation of Justin Hunter to the starting lineup, the Titans are in evaluation mode. They know Greene sucks. Sankey has carried the ball a total of 34 times the past two games. The Texans are allowing 4.2 YPC and are 31st in Pro Football Focus' run defense metrics. Sankey has burned us in recent weeks, but I'm going back to the well.
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WR Kenny Stills vs. Packers ($5400): Stills is playing over 56 percent of the offensive snaps and is coming off a breakout 5-103-1 game against the Lions. His targets are inconsistent, meaning Stills carries plenty of risk. But this tilt with Green Bay has the looks of another potential boom for the second-year receiver out of Oklahoma. The Packers have defended the pass generally well in 2014, but I'm attacking this potential shootout with an astronomically-high over-under. Somebody has to score the touchdowns. Both CBs Sam Shields (knee) and Tramon Williams (ankle) are less than 100 percent. With Jimmy Graham (shoulder) also nowhere near 100 percent, Stills should see an uptick in targets for the second consecutive week. He's a high-upside WR4/5.
WR Davante Adams at Saints ($5400): Another player from Packers-Saints. Adams has been a bit disappointing the past three weeks, though he has saved his two least-targeted afternoons by scoring a touchdown in each. In the other, Adams went 6-77-0 on seven targets. He's played 78.8 percent of the snaps the last three games. Even with Jarrett Boykin (groin) returning to active status in Week 7, Adams remained well ahead of him. Look for the Saints to stick top CB Keenan Lewis on Jordy Nelson for much of the day, leaving Adams to work against some combination of Patrick Robinson and Corey White. Rookie CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste could also see some action on the outside because both Robinson and White have struggled so badly for much of the season. There's plenty of "boom" appeal here with Adams as a WR4.
WR Jarvis Landry at Jaguars ($5300): Landry is firmly entrenched as the Dolphins' slot receiver after bypassing Brandon Gibson on the depth chart. Gibson has admitted it himself, and was even a healthy scratch Week 7. Landry has turned 12 targets into a 10-121-1 line the past two games. He's essentially become Ryan Tannehill's No. 2 receiver behind Mike Wallace and ahead of Brian Hartline. Tannehill is strong in the middle and intermediate levels of the field. That's where Landry does his work. The rookie out of LSU will draw Jaguars slot CB Will Blackmon in coverage for much of the afternoon. Blackmon is Pro Football Focus' No. 104 cover corner out of 106 qualifiers. Quarterbacks have a 102.6 passer rating throwing at him. Landry also leads the league in kickoff return average at 31.7, so he gets an added boost there. He's on the WR4/5 map and gets a bump up in PPR formats.
WR Donte Moncrief at Steelers ($5100): "Hakeem Nicks is done. Capital DONE. He can't even move, man. That dude sucks." Those are the words of our own Evan Silva on the 2MUGS podcast this week. Moncrief out-snapped Nicks 23-19 in Week 7 against the Bengals. Even though it was a blowout, Moncrief was still running ahead of Nicks in some high-leverage spots. He'd be the deepest of deep sleepers this week, but the matchup is there for Moncrief if he can get on the field. The Steelers tried benching LCB Cortez Allen last week, but he ended up playing significant snaps because Pittsburgh has nobody else to turn to at corner. Allen has routinely been getting burned as Pro Football Focus' 105th-ranked cover corner. Moncrief is a 6-foot-2, 221-pound freak of nature who drew Demaryius Thomas and Josh Gordon comparisons from guru Greg Cosell in the pre-draft process. He needs to be on watch re-draft watch lists and owned across the board in Dynasty.
WR Jermaine Kearse at Panthers ($4900): Kearse had already been playing over 80 percent of the offensive snaps in Seattle before Percy Harvin was traded to the Jets. The Seahawks' big-play threat on the outside, Kearse has seen seven targets in each of the past two games, turning them into six catches for 112 yards. Just as I picked on burnable corners above with Landry and Moncrief, I'm going to do so again with Kearse vs. Panthers LCB Antoine Cason. Cason is dead-last at 106th in Pro Football Focus' cover corner rankings. He's already given up five touchdowns. Kearse is a high-pointer of the football and a touchdown-scorer.
TE Jordan Reed at Cowboys ($5200): Reed was a DFS favorite last week, but disappointed a bit with a 5-54-0 line on six targets. He has another tasty matchup with a Cowboys defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Reed has seen 17 passes come his way in two games since returning from a hamstring injury. Enter Colt McCoy at quarterback. McCoy is a popgun-armed dinker and dunker of the football who will look to get it to his tight end. Reed should flirt with double-digit targets in a game where the Redskins are likely to be playing from behind. He's an every-week TE1, yet has the 22nd-highest salary among tight ends on FanDuel.
TE Scott Chandler at Jets ($5100): Like the Cowboys, the Jets struggle badly to cover tight ends. Chandler is averaging nearly seven targets per game in Kyle Orton's three starts. He's turned those targets into 13 catches for 162 scoreless yards. I won't be using Chandler in DFS lineups, as I'd MUCH rather throw the extra 100 bones to Jordan Reed above, but there are worse options out there than Chandler for re-draft owners in a bye-week or injury crunch.
