Week 6: Deep Sleepers and DFS Bargains
It’s time for another TGIF addition of Deep Sleepers and DFS Bargains. I made good on two of my five picks (Chris Hogan and Cameron Meredith) last week. Let’s try to improve on that and get REALLY deep heading into Week 6.
To review… all of these players are owned in less than sixty percent of Yahoo leagues (at time of writing) and/or are a significant value in our daily game. They’re not the obvious picks, and they’re not without their risks, but that’s why they’re so cheap and available! I’d never advocate taking all of these guys, but rather utilizing them if a manager were in a pinch at a position or aiming to build a “stars and scrubs” sort of DFS lineup.
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Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($28)
After whiffing two weeks in a row, Mariota showed signs off life in Week 5. Completing nearly 70 percent of his attempts for 163 yards and 3 TDs through the air as well as 60 yards and a score on the ground, the second-year signal caller closed out the week as fantasy’s most productive QB. Well protected behind an offensive line that Football Outsiders ranks as the league’s second most effective, Mariota regained the poise and accuracy that made him such a promising prospect.
Additionally, his ability to spread the ball around and get all of his receivers (not just Delanie Walker) involved demonstrated that this offense is coming together. Chemistry and trust are beginning to develop, which should make this admittedly limited passing offense gel into something at least consistent. And given Mariota’s wheels, he doesn’t need to pass a lot to have value. This past Sunday, he racked up his most rushing yards and finally ran one in. It’s no surprise that he was able to be productive on the ground once the passing offense stabilized.
Heading into Week 6, the Titans have a chance to build on that winning momentum when they host the Browns. Cleveland’s defense can be had via the ground and/or the air, as they’ve allowed a whopping 17 total TDs to RBs (6), WRs (6) and TEs (5) over the course of the season. A QB1 this weekend, Mariota’s schedule stays light over the next few weeks (vs. Colts, vs. Jaguars, @ Chargers), which makes the dual-threat QB an under the radar stash for owners looking to get through byes and/or needing extra support at the position.
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Brandon LaFell, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($10)
Go ahead and roll your eyes… I promise I’m not chasing points. The fact of the matter is that Cincy desperately misses Tyler Eifert’s presence in the red area of the field. Expected to miss another week, and acknowledging that A.J. Green is only one person, the Bengals have been forced to find an alternative red zone producer.
Last week, after Jeremy Hill (the team’s other TD beast) exited with a shoulder injury, LaFell stepped up and scored twice in the game’s final quarter. This week the former Patriot will take on his old team at Foxboro.
All revenge game narratives aside, LaFell is likely draw CB Logan Ryan this Sunday. The matchup leans heavily in LaFell’s favor as Ryan has allowed 16.1 fantasy points (the most of any player at his position) to WRs he’s been assigned to cover. It may not be pretty, but rolling out the vet in a week in which Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs are both on bye sure is sneaky.
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Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($11)
Built like a tight end, Green-Beckham’s physical traits rarely go unnoticed. So it makes sense that Eagles’ head coach Doug Pederson would attempt to get the newest member of Philly’s receiving corps more involved in the offense.
Wanting to provide his rookie signal caller with a massive red zone target, DGB came out of the bye with his highest snap count (59.3%) of the season. While he was only targeted four times in Week 5, it’s important to note that two of those looks were inside the 10-yard line. At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds and with speed that makes no sense for a human that large, I foresee many more red zone opportunities for the former Titan.
In a matchup at our Nation’s Capitol this Sunday, DGB figures to see a lot of Bashaud Breeland, who is returning from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury. Breeland is a solid talent, but he’s not 100 percent. And, prior to being sidelined, allowed 2 TDs and 167 yards (over the first three weeks of the season). A full six inches taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier than Washington’s No. 2 CB, the Eagles’ emerging wideout has a good shot of overpowering his coverage and scoring his first TD of 2016.
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C.J. Spiller, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($12)
As a fantasy prognosticator a large part of my job is to recognize a trend before it becomes obvious. While I haven’t been perfect this season, I was able to identify Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard, and Cameron Meredith (to name a few) at least a week before the masses. In that vein… working off an admittedly small sample size and against a “never again” narrative, I present the case for C.J. Spiller.
Added to a team with a history of taking in and fixing up broken down Bills’ backs, Spiller signed with Seattle just four days before suiting up. That Sunday, the vet started ahead of rookie C.J. Prosise and scored the team’s first TD of Week 4. While he only notched four touches (2 totes and 2 receptions off of 3 targets), Spiller did receive three red zone looks. More importantly, the Seahawks clearly had a plan for his usage and weren’t shy about getting him involved immediately.
Coming off a bye in which he’s had time to better absorb the playbook, Spiller faces a Falcons squad that has given up the third most receiving yards (357) to the running back position. A player who excels in the open field, Spiller looks to fill a hole that Seattle’s offense has been trying to figure out for years. With Thomas Rawls sidelined for the month, Russell Wilson reportedly back to health, and question marks surrounding Tyler Lockett’s usage, Spiller may well become Seattle’s second most popular “space needle.”
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Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills ($12)
With the exception of Greg Olsen and Kyle Rudolph (who is on bye this week), relying on a TE for week-to-week production has been a maddening pursuit. Whether due to injuries or changes in offensive scheme, most fantasy owners have been chasing matchups and volume when deciding on a starter at the position. While Clay has yet to score a TD, he has been intriguingly consistent, which provides him with unexpected upside in Week 6.
Since Sammy Watkins got gimpy in Week 2, Clay has become a more featured part of the Bills passing offense. On the field for an average of nearly 20 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, the veteran tight end has reeled in 5 balls in three of his last four outings. He’s also amassed 12 targets over his last two games.
The end zone has remained elusive for Clay, but it is worth noting that he’s garnered at least one red zone target in each of his past three contests. Coming off of a top-ten outing in Week 5, the former Phin will host a 49ers defense that’s allowed the tenth most fantasy points and is giving up an average of nearly 8 receptions per game to opposing TEs. Admittedly, Clay isn’t a sure thing, but then again, who is?
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