Week 13 Sleepers
Welcome to Week 13, ladies and gentlemen. It’s either the final week of the fantasy regular season or the first week of the playoffs in some leagues. Owners are jockeying for that first-round bye or simply starting their journey toward a championship. You owners already knocked out of contention are playing spoiler. The bye weeks are over, so we have a full slate of games the rest of the year. Below is a mix of re-draft and DFS options, with Payer X’s FanDuel salary in parentheses.
QB Eli Manning at Jaguars ($7,200): I expect the Giants to be mostly balanced in this one, getting Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams plenty involved on the ground. But Manning and Odell Beckham could be an interesting stack in a FanDuel tournament. Quarterbacks are averaging a healthy 7.8 YPA against the Jaguars, while Jacksonville has allowed the third-most 20-plus-yard pass plays (42). Gus Bradley’s defense can get after the passer, but it’s lost two of its top three cornerbacks from the start of the season, while LCB Dwayne Gratz has been singed in coverage. Beckham makes for a fine cash game and GPP play on FanDuel as a legit WR1. Manning is coming off a three-touchdown Week 12 and is on the streaming radar.
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RB Tre Mason vs. Raiders ($6,000): Mason has received at least 17 touches in 5-of-6 games, and I expect the Rams to really work their rookie running back in this one. It should be a competitive football game with the second-lowest over-under (42.5) of Sunday’s games. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Mason get 25-plus carries against a Raiders defense that has yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. The concern with Mason is he’s often pulled in favor of Benny Cunningham in the red zone. But Mason is capable of breaking a long one. He has at least one 20-plus-yard gain in 5-of-7 games. The Rams have also started to slowly but surely trust Mason more on passing downs. Mason is a mid-range RB2 with upside.
RB Dan Herron vs. Redskins ($5,800): If choosing between Herron and Trent Richardson, it’s Herron every time. I was surprised by just how much giddy-up Herron had in his step against the Jaguars last week. And signs continue to point to Herron starting against the Redskins — not that it really matters who starts — and filling the Ahmad Bradshaw role. “Boom” looked smooth catching the ball and saw opportunities in the red zone. Even though he fumbled in the red area, the Colts didn’t hesitate to go back to him on the next possession. They know Richardson sucks. The Redskins play stout run defense, but this Indianapolis offense is matchup-proof. Only they can stop themselves. Herron is the high-upside play in the Indy backfield.
RB Jerick McKinnon vs. Panthers ($5,500): It’s becoming harder to like McKinnon in fantasy because he doesn’t score. (He’s yet to visit the end zone this season.) And Matt Asiata is returning from a concussion this weekend. But the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (11), seventh-highest YPC (4.4), and 10th-most catches to running backs (62). McKinnon is likely going to have to break off a long run to find pay dirt, and the Panthers have allowed the most 40-plus-yard runs. McKinnon is your picture-perfect boom-or-bust RB2.
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WR Pierre Garcon at Colts ($5,800): Garcon has been a big-time disappointment as a minor factor in the Redskins’ passing game all year. He’s also likely to start opposite stud RCB Vontae Davis. But the Redskins move their receivers around, and Davis isn’t a shadow corner. Colts McCoy’s insertion back into the lineup as the starting quarterback can also be viewed as a plus for Garcon, who wins in the short-to-intermediate parts of the field. Garcon is making his return to Indianapolis where he spent the first four seasons of his career. The Redskins had to play run-dominated offense to hide Robert Griffin III’s deficiencies as a passer. McCoy is no world-beater, but he’s a more refined and technically-sound quarterback. The Redskins are highly likely to be playing from behind, making McCoy a good bet to uncork 30-plus passes. I prefer DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed to Garcon, but Garcon should see enough of LCB Greg Toler (or his fill-in Josh Gordy) and slot CB Darius Butler to draw six-plus targets. He’s a WR4/5 with some upside.
WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Broncos ($5,600): Alex Smith has yet to throw a touchdown to a wide receiver. That’s going to change at some point, and it’s beyond past-due. Bowe is the unquestioned “No. 1” in Kansas City, even if he’s more of a WR4 fantasy-wise. Smith threw for his most passing yards (255) of the season when these two teams met in Week 2. Expect a similar output with Smith divvying up his targets between Bowe, Travis Kelce, and Jamaal Charles. Bowe is likely to see plenty of Aqib Talib, but Talib is at less than 100 percent after exiting Week 12 early. Bowe is coming off a recent stretch of four straight games with at least five catches and 50 yards before it was snapped in Week 11. He’s a decent bet for 8-10 targets Sunday.
WR Allen Hurns vs. Giants ($5,500): Hurns played 90.9 percent of the snaps, his highest percentage since Week 5. With Allen Robinson (foot) done for the season, Hurns is an every-down player. He’s dropped a pass in four straight games and caught just 1-of-4 targets for 13 yards last week against the Colts, but Blake Bortles was under intense pressure and took zero shots downfield on the road. The Jaguars return home and have an opportunity to get a win against the lowly Giants. Thanks to injuries, the Giants have been playing Jayron Hosley in the slot the past month or so. In three-wide sets, Hurns plays in the slot. Hosley allowed a long touchdown to Cole Beasley last week, and quarterbacks have a 153.3 passer rating when targeting Hosley. Hurns is on the radar as a deep play.
WR Donte Moncrief vs. Redskins ($5,300): Moncrief out-snapped Hakeem Nicks 30-28 last week, seeing his most extensive playing time since Week 8 and posting a 4-38 line on four targets. Maybe the Colts are finally starting to realize what everyone else knows. Moncrief is the far superior player, and Nicks is done. I’m taking a shot in the dark here on Moncrief, but he has the talent to explode. The Redskins benched RCB David Amerson last week, making him a healthy scratch after he’s been torched in coverage all year. Washington then lost his fill-in Tracy Porter to a season-ending shoulder injury. Look for CB Bashaud Breeland to shadow T.Y. Hilton for a good chunk of the game, allowing the Colts’ secondary receivers to line up against E.J. Biggers, Amerson, and the Redskins’ special teamers. I’m expecting a massive bounce-back from Andrew Luck against a Washington defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Moncrief is merely a dart-throw, but one with gobs of upside and big-play potential.
WR Jaron Brown at Falcons ($4,900): Yes, JARON Brown. Not JOHN Brown. I mentioned Jaron Brown on Twitter earlier in the week and got replies asking, “You mean John, right?” While I love John against Atlanta, as well, Jaron is on the deep-league radar. Coach Bruce Arians talked earlier in the season how he was trying to find ways to get Jaron on the field. He’s a second-year UDFA out of Clemson who played behind Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, and Martavis Bryant in college. But he’s a good athlete. At 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, Brown has 4.43 speed. With Larry Fitzgerald (knee) sidelined last week, Brown played 46-of-55 snaps, while John played 41-of-55. Jaron caught 3-of-6 targets, but dropped a sure-fire touchdown in the first half. Drew Stanton has yet to eclipse 200 yards passing in three road starts, so he’s capable of bringing this whole pass game down with him. But the matchup is right. The Falcons have allowed the most pass yards in the league. Much like the receivers mentioned above, Brown is a dice-roll and will only be on the radar if Fitzgerald, who didn’t practice Wednesday, misses another game.
WR Marqise Lee vs. Giants ($4,800): Lee saw his most extensive action since Week 2 last week in Indianapolis, playing 35-of-55 snaps as the Jaguars’ third receiver. He was easily the most impressive one on the field for Jacksonville, turning five targets into three catches for 52 yards with 34 yards of YAC. He was tackled at the one-yard line on his 37-yard catch-and-run. It wasn’t long ago when Lee was being talked up as a potential top-10 pick in the NFL draft. He lasted until the second round last May and has had some trouble adjusting to OC Jedd Fisch’s offense. But he looked comfortable in Week 12, leading the team in receiving. He has the highest upside of any healthy Jaguars receiver.
TE Travis Kelce vs. Broncos ($5,300): The Kelce breakout is coming. He’s played 113-of-119 snaps the past two weeks, and Anthony Fasano (knee) missed practice on Wednesday after playing just a couple snaps in Week 12. The last time the Chiefs and Broncos met in Week 2, Kelce went 4-81-0 on six targets. I’m half-expecting the Chiefs to have to pass the ball to win this one, and the Broncos have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Kelce is the only tight end other than Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham that I’d consider as a cash-game play on FanDuel. He also makes for a fine tournament option. I feel pretty good about Kelce this week.
TE Charles Clay at Jets ($5,200): After missing Week 12 with a knee injury, Clay returned to practice Wednesday. He’s looking like a good bet to return for a tasty matchup against a disinterested Jets team that sucks at covering the tight end. The Jets have allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns to tight ends, and Clay roasted this defense for 11-123-2 across two games last season. Gang Green is fielding an infinitely worse defensive backfield in 2014. At an insanely shallow tight end position, Clay is this week’s preferred streamer on Monday night.
