Waiver Wire: Week 16
We’ve reached the summit. As we enter Super Bowl week, there’s no reason to make speculative bench adds or hold handcuffs to healthy players. So this week’s Waiver Wired is for those owners suddenly desperate for a need of a plug-n-play. It’s also about protecting ourselves against some of the fluid injury situations.
On to the Week 16 assets. Here is how I would rank the players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Notes and recommendations on each player will follow.
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Quarterbacks
1. Robert Griffin III
2. Alex Smith
3. Kyle Orton
Running backs
1. Joseph Randle
2. Lance Dunbar
3. Toby Gerhart
4. Carlos Hyde
5. Branden Oliver
Wide receivers
1. Harry Douglas
2. Malcom Floyd
3. Marquess Wilson
4. Stedman Bailey
5. Eddie Royal
* Jarvis Landry is owned in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at WR.
* Charles Johnson is owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 3 add at WR.
Tight ends
1. Mychal Rivera
2. Charles Clay
3. Owen Daniels
Defense/Special Teams
1. Jaguars
2. Panthers
3. Titans
Kickers
1. Matt Bryant
2. Connor Barth
3. Shayne Graham
4. Caleb Sturgis
QUARTERBACKS
1. Robert Griffin III, Redskins – Owned in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues
Colt McCoy aggravated his neck injury Sunday, giving Robert Griffin III a chance to play virtually a full game. He showed what he can do for fantasy owners, going 18-of-27 for 236 yards with one TD and rushed five times for 46 yards. RG3 also had a rushing score controversially overturned. With McCoy out for Saturday’s home game against the Eagles, Griffin is suddenly back in the fantasy conversation. It’s risky, but Philly bleeds fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (fourth-most in the NFL) due to the sheer possessions their rapid-fire offense allows and their inept secondary play.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a deep-league streamer
2. Alex Smith, Chiefs – Owned in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues
Regressing toward his Philly-style offense that too often forgot about the run game, Andy Reid has allowed Alex Smith to attempt at least 30 passes in three of the last four games. It’s resulted in 244.2 passing yards per day with a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio during that span. Now Smith and the Chiefs get to play Pittsburgh, a unit we’ve been streaming against all season thanks to atrocious pass defense. The Steelers rank 27th in pass yards allowed, 29th in YPA allowed, 28th in pass TDs allowed and T-26th in sacks. Smith never has any upside thanks to his conservative, checkdown style. But 220-240 yards and a 1.3 TD projection is fair in this matchup.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a deep-league streamer
3. Kyle Orton, Bills – Owned in 13 percent of Yahoo leagues
A lot of people are going to think this is a great spot to fire up Kyle Orton because he’s playing at Oakland. It’s not. The Bills are at real risk of showing up flat after knocking off the Packers at home Sunday and now having to travel all the way across the country to the black hole. The Raiders are 2-0 at home in their last two games. I would not use Orton for $7200 on FanDuel, but there is a bit of appeal if you’re in a two-quarterback format and desperate in Super Bowl week.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
RUNNING BACKS
1. Joseph Randle, Cowboys – Owned in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues
This week’s No. 1 waiver add is the guy that stole underwear from the mall earlier this season. DeMarco Murray broke the fourth metacarpal in his left hand late in Sunday night’s win over the Eagles and is currently questionable for Sunday’s game against the Colts. Although Lance Dunbar got a bit of base work against Philly and is the clear-cut two- and four-minute drill back, Joseph Randle is the projected starter and goal-line back. Note that eight of Murray’s 11 touchdowns this season have come from three yards out or closer. Also note that per PFF’s Mike Clay, the Cowboys have called a pass on just 39 percent of Randle’s snaps vs. 72 percent of Dunbar’s. We know the Colts can be smashed in the mouth via the run and we know the Cowboys have an elite offensive line to attack that with. If Murray sits, I’d be comfortable with Randle as a top-18 RB play.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all formats
2. Lance Dunbar, Cowboys – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
If DeMarco Murray (hand) sits, Joseph Randle will start and be the closest thing to a “feature” back. But he won’t be handling a Murray-style workload. We’ve already seen the Cowboys sprinkle Lance Dunbar in for change-of-pace base work, screen passes and all two-minute drill duties. So Dunbar will push for 8-10 touches against the Colts as a floor, with a much higher ceiling if the Cowboys get behind (they’re a 3-point favorite). Dunbar also gets a boost in PPR formats. Just know that Randle is the heavy favorite for the goal-line work that has produced eight of DeMarco’s 11 touchdowns this season.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a PPR streamer
3. Toby Gerhart, Jaguars – Owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues
I think the Jaguars are going to step up and play well Thursday night. This nationally televised island game is the equivalent of their Super Bowl and they’re already favored by three points. So how will they beat the Titans? With the run game, of course. Tennessee continues to get beat up on the ground weekly and we know Gerhart will get a full workload with Denard Robinson done for the year. I like Toby as a desperation streamer and a cheap FanDuel punt at just $100 over minimum salary.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
4. Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
The 49ers backfield is muddled right now. Frank Gore is in the concussion protocol and Carlos Hyde is headed for testing on both his ankle and back. Regardless, it’s worth scooping Hyde as he’d be an immediate RB2 plug-n-play if he starts and Gore is inactive. The second-round rookie would project for 20 touches in a home game against a middling Chargers defense.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
5. Branden Oliver, Chargers – Owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues
With Ryan Mathews (ankle) inactive Sunday, Branden Oliver started and handled 16 touches on 26 snaps. Passing back Donald Brown finished with nine touches on 34 snaps – a function of the Chargers playing from behind for the entire game. The certainly have a better chance to keep it close this week at San Francisco, who is ready to mail in their lost season. Oliver would be a flex option if Mathews sits again.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Harry Douglas, Falcons – Owned in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues
Julio Jones (hip) didn’t sound particularly close to playing in Week 15, as the only exercise he reportedly did was ride a bike. He was essentially ruled out on Saturday by trainers. So even though the Falcons are optimistic on Julio’s Week 16 status, Harry Douglas still needs to be rostered just in case. He predictably went 10-131-0 against the Steelers Sunday, went 9-116-0 when Roddy White sat out Week 13 and averaged 7.1 catches for 98.1 yards in the seven games after Julio’s foot injury. Douglas’ Week 16 matchup (at New Orleans) would only be a tick worse than his Week 15 matchup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all formats
2. Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Owned in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues
Always a boom-or-bust option thanks to his vertical, deep-ball style, Malcom Floyd may get a little volume boost this week as Keenan Allen (ankle) is questionable. Floyd doesn’t really have the chops to run the possession slants and outs Allen did, but it’s not unrealistic to expect 7-9 targets against the 49ers. Floyd’s flex appeal gets a boost if Allen sits.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
3. Marquess Wilson, Bears – Owned in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues
Although Marquess Wilson saved his box score with a 1-yard touchdown Monday night, his three catches for 16 yards on one five targets was a bit disappointing. Jay Cutler’s utter collapse and a tough matchup with the Lions in Week 16 is also concerning. The good news is that Wilson played on 63-of-63 snaps. He’ll be a top-40 kind of wideout play going forward.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
4. Stedman Bailey, Rams – Owned in 14 percent of Yahoo leagues
Outside of a disappointing clunker at Washington in Week 14, Bailey has been impressive. He has at least five catches and 74 yards in three of his last four games and set a season-high in Week 15 by playing on 69.2 percent of the snaps. This week, Bailey has a fine matchup against a Giants’ secondary whose recent stats are inflated by matchups with the inept pass games of the Titans, Jags and 49ers.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
5. Eddie Royal, Chargers – Owned in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues
Slot man Eddie Royal has already been playing on 90.8 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, so the potential absence of Keenan Allen (ankle) wouldn’t affect playing time. It could affect volume, however. Royal has seen just nine targets over the last two weeks while Allen has been a target monster all year long at 8.57 per game.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation PPR streamer
TIGHT ENDS
1. Mychal Rivera, Raiders – Owned in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues
I really like this spot for the Raiders. They get the Bills, who are coming off a predictable yet stirring home upset of the Packers. Now they have to go all the way across the country to the black hole, a place the Raiders are 2-0 in their last two games. When I think a team is going to show up big, I’m more willing to take a shot on their fringe players. Mychal Rivera has piled up 17 catches on 27 targets in the last three weeks.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
2. Charles Clay, Dolphins – Owned in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues
Seemingly over his knee and hamstring injuries that have been nagging him for a month-plus, Charles Clay played on 85.1 percent of the snaps in Week 15. He saw seven targets, turning them into 6-59-0. There’s not a lot of upside here, but I do like the spot for the Dolphins at home against the Vikings.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a desperation streamer
3. Owen Daniels, Ravens – Owned in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues
I wrote up Owen Daniels in this space last week because of his monster snap count, place in Gary Kubiak’s TE-friendly offense and a matchup with a Jags defense that needs to be thrown on. It worked out, as Daniels went 4-62-1 and tied a season-high with nine targets. That was nice, but I wouldn’t go chasing those stats at Houston Sunday unless you’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel. It’s just not as good of a spot.
Recommendation: Should be considered as an extreme desperation streamer
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Jaguars – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
Quietly playing solid defense, the Jags have allowed just 23.5 points per game over the last month. Now they get to play in their Super Bowl, a nationally televised Thursday night home game against the dumpster fire known as the Titans. Thanks to injuries, this Tennessee team is down to Checkdown Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback and Nate Washington/Derek Hagan at wideout. They’re scoring 15.7 points per game over the last month.
2. Panthers – Owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues
Thanks in large part to finally finding effective corner play with Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere, the Panthers defense is flashing a tiny bit of its dominant 2013 form. Over the last two weeks, they’ve held New Orleans and Tampa to a total of 27 points while forcing five turnovers and generating five sacks. This week, they get a home game against Johnny Manziel and the Browns. I couldn’t have been more wrong on Manziel last week and although I’m sure he’ll play better, anything is an improvement on five first downs generated, three interceptions (one called back by penalty), three sacks taken and 80 passing yards.
3. Titans – Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
Although I think the Jaguars show well on Thursday night in their Super Bowl (see above), that doesn’t mean we can’t attack Blake Bortles if desperate. Continuing to struggle weekly with turnovers, he now has a 10:17 TD-to-INT ratio and hasn’t topped 210 passing yards in any of the last four weeks.
KICKERS
1. Matt Bryant, Falcons – Owned in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues
Matt Bryant isn’t home in the dome this week, but he is in a dome at New Orleans. This game has the highest over/under of the week and Bryant’s big leg gives him an extra boost. He’s made six field goals from 50+ this season.
2. Connor Barth, Broncos – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Broncos have suddenly become a bit inefficient in the red zone, taking a ball-control offensive approach and grinding out wins. It’s led to 11 field goal attempts for Connor Barth in the last three weeks – and he’s made all 11. Kicking outdoors in Cincy isn’t the best spot this time of year, but Barth has big-game upside.
3. Shayne Graham, Saints – Owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues
On Monday night, Shayne Graham pushed one field goal wide and didn’t get another one off due to a bad hold. Let’s throw that out as it came in wet Chicago, a very difficult place to kick. Now Graham gets to come home into the kicker-friendly conditions of the Superdome. We know Drew Brees will move the ball against the Falcons’ atrocious defense.
4. Caleb Sturgis, Dolphins – Owned in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues
Without a solid run game, red-zone efficiency is going to be an issue. The Dolphins rank 26th in TD-only red-zone scoring percentage, which is a big reason Caleb Sturgis ranks second in the NFL with 34 field-goal attempts. A home game a mediocre Vikings defense creates a nice spot.
