Survival Pool Advice: Don't get stuck with a turkey in Week 12
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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 11’s biggest killer: Kansas City Chiefs over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.75 percent)
Week 11’s biggest winner: New York Giants over Chicago Bears (32.91 percent)
Total Week 11 eliminations: 5.43 percent of entries
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 13,552
If you’re still playing survival football, you’ve seen a lot of good news and bad news the past three weeks.
The good news is that you’re still alive.
The bad news is that so are many others.
Only 5.43 percent of entries on Yahoo’s platform were knocked out in Week 11, the second-lowest total of the season. (5.42 percent of entries bit it in Week 5.) Pair that with small tolls in Weeks 9 and 10 (10.05 and 11.68) and it really does seem like we’ve been running in place this month.
That’s what happens when you’ve got so many consistently terrible teams like the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears.
Some pools combat seasons like this by going to a survival pool where you must pick a LOSER each week (so you can’t take advantage of, say, the Browns more than once). Others play with a format that requires you to pick two winning teams in the final weeks of a season to ensure the pool gets culled down to a single winner.
Whatever your rules, if you’re still alive, you still want to be making the best picks you can with the teams you have left. Draw up a road map for these last six weeks of the season and stick with it.
Before we look at a few of the Week 12 games, you’ll notice that I didn’t bring any of the three Thanksgiving games into the mix. There’s no real obvious pick and there’s no reason to ruin your holiday after being ousted from contention. (Because we’ve all felt that mourning period after being knocked out in survival. It’s a real thing.)
New York Giants over Cleveland Browns
Are you a person who has gotten this far by picking against the Browns in 10 of the first 11 weeks? (They’ve played the Ravens twice.) If so, email me a screenshot at kevinkaduk@yahoo.com because I want to recognize your commitment.
Perhaps to my detriment, I’m always a little nervous to be on the bandwagon when it finally veers off a cliff. So at various points this year, I’ve warned against touching the Browns stove only to find it hot. But who am I at this point to counsel otherwise? Over 40 percent of early picks are loading up on the Giants despite them being on the road. And why not? The Giants don’t have a lot of obvious spots left and everyone’s going to have to take at least a week break from the Browns when they finally get a merciful bye next Sunday.
Buffalo Bills over Jacksonville Jaguars
Numberfire lists the Bills as 83 percent favorites to win this game, by far the highest number of the week. And Buffalo will probably end up being the second-most popular pick this week when all is said and done. But with other solid options out there, you’re probably best off laying off the Bills because they also get the Browns at home in Week 15.
New Orleans Saints over Los Angeles Rams
Both teams are 4-6, but the Saints come into the game as a touchdown favorite. The Saints haven’t been tapped much by survival players this year, but this is the weekend to do it. Do you really thinks Jared Goff’s first win is going to come in a shootout against Drew Brees in the Superdome? Me neither.
MIami Dolphins over San Francisco 49ers
The Dolphins are 4-1 at home this year and right in the middle of the AFC playoff race. The 49ers have lost nine straight and will be flying cross-country after the holiday. If you’re not one of the 47.4 percent that successfully took the Dolphins over the Browns in Week 3, here’s your spot.
My pick: Saints over Rams
Who are you picking this week? Let me know in the comments below!
